What the energy sector needs to know about COP30


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • The climate hero COP needs
  • COP31 hopes live on
  • Real zero 'technically feasible'

Can the ‘clean energy revolution’ save COP?

Clean energy is the emerging hero of climate negotiations as the world’s petrostates, electrostates and those in-between fall short of their carbon reduction goals.

“A clean energy revolution has taken hold. Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of power – and the fastest growing sources of electricity in history. Last year, almost all new power capacity came from renewables.
The clean-energy economy is creating jobs and driving development. It is reshaping geopolitics – delivering energy security and price stability. And it is connecting millions to clean and affordable energy for the first time.”
UN Secretary-General António Guterres in Belém, Brazil

A boost for climate finance and new forms of investment, partnerships, and trade that don’t simply add to debt are intended to wrap around 10 years of promises and get the world back on track to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – including those most affected.

“Let’s take heart from the fact that the transition is well underway, at scale and at pace … Our approach is grounded in the UAE Consensus: transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable way, while scaling up clean energy and clean industry."
Australia’s representative, junior minister Josh Wilson, told the “leaders’ summit.

Two years ago, world leaders pledged to triple renewable energy to at least 11,000GW by 2030 and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements to over 4% by 2030. The goal of this Brazilian COP is to get a pledge on the quadrupling of the use of sustainable fuels by 2035 and to further accelerate the global transition to renewable energy.

On carbon pricing mechanisms, the Open Coalition for Compliance Carbon Markets has been launched as nearly every country intends to use carbon credits to achieve their targets. It has China and Europe on board, as Brazilian officials bring market integration of a plethora of carbon taxes and emissions trading systems as a potential legacy of COP30. (European Commission) (SCMP) (Bloomberg)

The billion-dollar question of who hosts the next COP remains unresolved, with no announcement expected until the final week of the summit, giving Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen time to arrive and relieve his offsider. Insiders say Bonn has expressed a lack of enthusiasm to become the default host.

The Energy's latest feature get to the substantive issues with our expert team..

Expert view

“Last year we saw a significant failure in finance. Hardwiring 1.5, moving NDCs from plans to proof, and turning empty funds into lifelines … these are the things that we can see as tangible outcomes of this COP.

We’ve heard that this is an implementation COP, that this is a COP where we’re going to see a real shift and to course-correct from the ambition that we have been seeing is lacking overall."

Sindra Sharma
International Policy Lead, Pacific Islands Climate Action Network

Expert view

“I still think Australia’s got a reasonable chance of getting to host COP. There’s a whole range of negotiating arrangements, like Türkiye taking on some of the intercessional meetings during the 12-month period … Maybe there’s an early leaders’ meeting in Ankara before the two-week hosting in Adelaide, you know some kind of sharing arrangement. That’s actually very logistically very difficult to do but it’s been done. It's certainly not the preferred outcome. We’re also concerned Türkiye’s bid doesn’t have a lot of climate ambition actually attached to it.”

Gavan McFadzean
ACF climate and energy expert

Catch Up

Capital

The Minderoo Foundation allocated US$10 million to the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) launched at COP30 by Brazil ’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to make forests worth more standing than felled. “Offsets have too often been used as a licence to pollute. They categorically do not work the vast majority of times they have been independently measured. This is the opposite. The TFFF makes forest protection a strong economic choice in favour of our environment – rewarding countries that actually keep their forests intact,” Mindaroo founder Andrew Forrest said.


Projects

Western Australia opened an Expression of Interest for local green steel to be used on major state government projects with feedstock for a future recycling industry including scrap from decommissioned mining and offshore oil and gas plants. As part of soon-to-be-introduced local sourcing requirements, the government will take an "if not, why not" approach to procurement that will explicitly give preference to WA-made green steel. Directions on local content procurement will be issued to Western Power, Synergy, and Horizon Power under the Government Trading Enterprises Act 2023.

Meanwhile the WA government’s claim that gas production is helping Asia’s clean energy transition was undermined in a leaked Deloitte report, which it commissioned. “The government for a long time now has been trying to make the ludicrous argument that if you extract and export more gas, which is a fossil fuel, it will be good for the climate and reduce emissions,” Australia Institute co-CEO Richard Denniss said. “That’s not true, because climate change is caused by fossil fuels and gas is one of the main fossil fuels.

Environment Minister Murray Watt lauded the Dunmore Solar Farm as an example for industry to follow for fast approvals. Samsung C&T Renewable Energy Australia’s 300MW solar farm and 150MW battery energy storage system (BESS), near existing transmission lines, was approved at the federal level in just 19 days and will be located on previously cleared land, Watt said.


Policy

Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg told ABC’s Insiders he will resign from the frontbench if his party abandons Australia's commitment to the Paris Agreement, as Opposition Leader Sussan Ley mulls dumping the Coalition's net-zero policy. "I think at the end of the day, this is the international standard on decarbonisation. So Australia cannot sit out of its own international standard,” he said. "It's ridiculous." The Liberals will meet in Canberra mid-week to settle an official position on net zero and energy policy, ahead of a joint Coalition party room meeting next Sunday. Opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan has flagged subsidies to keep current coal-fired power plants operating for longer and retaining the nuclear push. (SBS) (The Age) (Guardian) (AFR)

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean told a recent Climate Resilience Emergency Forum “we need to press on to net zero emissions as soon as we can ... and to prod other nations to do so”. Hosting COP31 next year would be the ideal platform to do that prodding, and focus Australians on climate matters throughout an entire year in the run-up to the event. “Most Aussies accept the climate science as they accept the science that enables the great majority of planes take off and land safely, or that diagnoses an illness and prescribes appropriate medicine to deal with it,” he said.

It’s also bad economics, according to ANU Professor Frank Jotzo. Walking away from net zero would undermine investment confidence, raise power prices, drive up taxes, undermine green export potential, harm Australia’s international reputation and run against our intrinsic interest in strong global climate policy as a nation highly exposed to climate damage, he warns. (The Conversation)


Regulation

The Australian Energy Regulator opened consultation on the extent of revenue recovery for TasNetworks’ North West Transmission Development (NWTD) project, with the overhead transmission lines to connect to Marinus Link as part of Project Marinus.

Treasury might have breached the Constitution when it extended the previous one-year $300 rebate for every household's electricity bills, because it failed to gain written authorisation from Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers. (AFR)


Technology

Research from Climate Analytics, commissioned by Fortescue (ASX: FMG), found “real zero” is technically feasible for key sectors. As the cost of renewables, batteries and other green technologies continues to fall, the case studies find it represents a far greater economic opportunity than continuing to burn fossil fuels:

  • Heavy trucking (Europe): Battery-electric long-haul trucks are projected to reach cost parity with diesel equivalents by 2026, described as a “tipping point” for zero-emission transport
  • Fertiliser (India): Green ammonia for fertiliser production will carry only a marginal cost premium over conventional fossil fuel-derived ammonia in parts of India by 2026, and by 2030 will undercut grey ammonia in renewables-rich regions.
  • Steel (Japan): Green hydrogen-based steelmaking could be cheaper than fossil routes by the early 2030s – and even sooner with modest carbon pricing – while scrap-based electric arc furnace production is already cost-competitive.

Climate

Proud Yilka/Wongutha/Nyoongar woman Sam Murray has seen the impact of climate change on desert Country. She's taking her fight to COP30, her second COP conference but the first as the CEO of the Indigenous Desert Alliance, which is a civil society organisation that supports Indigenous desert rangers care for Country across the Northern Territory, Western Australia, South Australia and parts of Queensland. (NITV)


Research

The energy transition is moving at half the pace needed to meet Paris-aligned targets, according to a stocktake by McKinsey Global Institute. Among the domains researched, raw materials is the only one where progress is outstripping cruising speed. Supply of critical minerals has been growing, especially in Africa, China, and Indonesia. Higher investment and an acceleration in the time it takes to bring projects online have put critical minerals on a trajectory that can sustain rapid growth in solar, batteries, and EVs, the institute found.


Random

“I super appreciate it.” How Elon Musk lined up a trillion-dollar payday. (ABC)

What's On

November 10
Making your energy project business case

Grattan Institute Energy and Climate Change Program Director Alison Reeve and Principal and Senior Director of Sustainability Business at Schneider Electric Lisa Zembrodt will speak at this Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity online event.


November 12
National Press Club

Japan’s Ambassador to Australia Kazuhiro Suzuki will address the National Press Club on "Girt by sea and in the same boat: 50 years of Japan-Australia relations and beyond” at this Canberra event.


November 13
Australian Electric Vehicle Association Annual Conference

Smart Energy Lab General Manager Glen Morris and zero-emissions vehicle expert Nathan Gore-Brown will speak at this Melbourne event.


November 18
National Press Club

FutureCoal (formerly known as the World Coal Association) CEO Michelle Manook will address the National Press Club on “the myths and future of coal” at this Canberra event


November 25
The NEM Review and Firming up the Transition

NEM Review Chair Tim Nelson, CEFC CEO Ian Learmonth, Transgrid CFO Nadine Lennie, and AEMO Executive GM Violette Mouchaileh will speak at this CEDA event in Sydney.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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