What China has made uninvestable


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • China's dominance shocks
  • Powering the Pilbara
  • Shade on Solar Sharer

Investing in the wake of China's dominance

When climate tech venture capitalist Yair Reem went to China, what he saw shocked him and forced him to rethink his investment strategy.

The strength of China's green tech industry is so strong that in some sectors, there's just no way for the West to compete. In sectors like batteries, it's game over. There's no point continuing to invest in Western battery startups when Chinese firms are already leagues ahead, and ready to take over the market, he writes.

Expert view

“But does this mean that Western climate tech is finished? Absolutely not. It does mean that we can’t afford to be complacent, though. In sectors where we still haven’t lost the lead, we need to apply some of the lessons we learned from China.

For example, startups really should focus on commercialisation early. Instead of pouring all their energy into endless lab tests, startups should be thinking about how to gain customers, and developing a strategy that considers incremental gains at launch with radical innovations later. For corporates, survival means innovating at startup speeds.

Remember, the West doesn’t lack innovators, it lacks customers, and despite the amazing feats we saw on our trip, China is not flawless. Among other things it has been criticised for, its hyper-competitive business landscape has led to a lot of social costs.”

Yair Reem
Partner, Extantia Capital

Firing up the renewable powerhouse

Western Australia’s Horizon Power opened expressions of interest (EOI) to secure the power supply in the vast Pilbara region from 2030.

Independent power producers with renewable energy projects and clear pathways to land access — including Traditional Owner groups — will be “viewed favourably” under the Pilbara Generation Power Project EOI, which is open until the end of February 2026 and serves to pre-qualify respondents for the next step — a restricted Request for Tender (RFT).

The resource-rich region, a linchpin of the economy, accounts for more than 40% of the state’s emissions with renewable energy generation currently less than 2% with gas and diesel the stubbornly dominant energy sources.

Shade on Solar Sharer

Unsurprisingly, industry participants expect the cost of offering a three-hour period of free energy to be recovered in the other 21 hours of the day. And that’s a tough starting position for a smaller energy retailer that doesn’t have a big integrated upstream energy supply position, UBS energy analyst Tom Allen warns.

“Our initial expectation is that it will have a very modest impact on the market, and hence why there’s no change to our view on the electricity market from the announcement of this policy,” Allen told The Energy.

Other changes to the Default Market Offer (DMO) that were announced alongside Solar Sharer were less of a surprise, he said, but the elements that are proposed to change have actually had a very small impact on the DMO in recent years.

“So, again, removing these could negatively impact smaller retailers,” he said. “I don’t think removing the competition allowance is something that the larger, vertically integrated retailers would be too concerned about.”

Catch Up

Capital

How to spend $1 billion on green iron is examined in a briefing note from IEEFA, which urges Australia to learn from the US and EU, where several low-emissions steel projects backed by capital grants were subsequently cancelled or delayed. “Projects often failed where grants were targeted only at the iron or steel producer,” analyst Lachlan Wright said. The answer? Australia should pursue an integrated approach, not grants alone, that combines significant investments across ironmaking, electrolysers and renewable energy.

Legal action against greenwashing launched by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) in June against gas distributor Australian Gas Networks, alleging the energy company made false and misleading representations in its ‘Love Gas’ TV and digital advertising campaign, is listed in the Federal Court for a case management hearing on Friday. (The Age)


Projects

Leading offshore wind project Star of the South is scoping locally made steel and steel products for the build. “Some 300 tonnes of steel components per turbine can realistically be made and fabricated here in Australia today, including platforms, walkways, ladders, railings, tubes and other structures,” CEO Charles Rattray said. The up to 2.2GW project expected to participate in Victoria’s first offshore wind auction in September — since delayed and a crucial part of building a business case.

Three out of six bidders have been shortlisted to build and operate the new transmission network for the New England Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) in NSW, and will progress to the Request for Proposal (RFP) stage:

  • Future Energy Networks (comprising AusNet, Pacific Partnerships, GS, Hyundai, Ghella, CPB Contractors, UGL)
  • NewLeaf Energy (Iberdrola, Capella Capital, Gamuda, Samsung C&T, Ferrovial, Genus Infrastructure)
  • Verta Energy (EDF Australia).

Policy

The environment protection bills cleared the House of Representatives, with no route of passage as yet in the Senate. “There will be opportunities to seriously improve the bills … They are urgent, they are important, but they still have a way to go,” Independent Member for Wentworth Allegra Spender told parliament.

Meanwhile NSW’s environment agency faces another pre-Christmas round of redundancies. (The Mandarin)

New Zealand broadened the terms of a NZ$200 million co-investment fund designed to ignite gas production and reduce perceptions of sovereign risk in a country that previously banned fossil fuel expansion. Initially designed to support new gas fields, the Gas Security Fund will now cover a range of investments, including gas storage projects, to “accelerate or increase the volume of gas to market in the short-, medium- and long-term”, largely to protect the viability of gas-dependent industrial and commercial businesses.

The cities of Melbourne and Sydney have signed on to a global agreement to develop shared guidelines and standards for low-carbon and water efficient AI infrastructure. Melbourne Lord Mayor Nick Reece said data centres and AI infrastructure currently accounts for 2% of Melbourne’s energy consumption, which is expected to rise to 8% in five years and 20 per cent by 2040. Global data center power demand is expected to almost double by 2030. (The Age)


Regulation

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) draft report on Marginal Loss Factor (MLF) Frameworks reform builds on the idea that an investment stability principle is feasible and recommends promoting it as a rule change in 2026. A symmetrical glide path could be implemented after introducing the investment stability rule. Time-varying loss factors benefits do not appear to outweigh the costs of implementation, AEMO said, but it may investigate alternative time slices for the final report.

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) found the current significant price outcome criteria of $5000/MWh was no longer fit for purpose, after conducting a review of guidelines. Feedback is due by December 1 on a proposed methodology that identifies selected days where the maximum 30-minute price in the NEM markets across all regions is the highest priced day for each month and the next highest priced day in the calendar quarter, with some wriggle room for the AER to “determine alternate price outcomes to report on if they are deemed more consequential or important than any of the selected days”.


Technology

A new online tool, the Heat Battery Estimator, could help Australian manufacturers to start considering clean heat options to reduce the impact and risk of gas costs and emissions to their businesses, Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity (A2EP) CEO Jarrod Leak said. The free tool developed with Aratherm also shows the impact of network tariffs on the economics of using a heat battery and the urgent need for all network operators to be offering flexible demand connections, he said.


Climate

As the COP30 climate conference got underway in Brazil's rainforest city Belem, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that fossil-fuel subsidies must end. "Too many corporations are making record profits from climate devastation, with billions spent on lobbying, deceiving the public and obstructing progress," Mr Guterres said in his speech. (ABC)

Amnesty International called out the “silencing of defenders” within the UNFCCC process for negotiating an agreement to limit climate change. “We expect COP30 to deliver a strong message regarding the role of those on the frontline of climate activism and the necessity to protect them,” said Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General, who is at COP30 in Brazil.

Democratic victories across the electoral map in the US affirmed for campaigners that the energy affordability crisis is a vulnerability for President Donald Trump and his allies, and one they plan to use as they fight his anti-clean energy agenda and work to flip control of Congress next year. “Clean energy is cheaper energy” was a message taken to voters in Georgia, New Jersey and Virginia. (Inside Climate News)


Research

Turner & Townsend’s 2025-2026 Data Centre Construction Cost Index estimated the cost to build a data centre in Sydney at US$10.56 per watt and US$10.40 per watt in Melbourne, with data centres tipped to consume up to 7% of Australia’s electricity by 2029. But most data centre industry experts (83%) do not believe supply chains are ready to deliver the advanced cooling technology required for AI data centres. Power availability was seen as the biggest single challenge to delivering data centres on schedule, as the industry continues to grapple with securing timely access to energy grids.

Random

Sircel, one of Australia’s biggest market hopefuls for solar panel recycling, has been put into administration. (Renew Economy)

What's On

November 7
Type 2 Transitional Services Webinar

AEMO Group Manager for Future Energy Systems Chris Davies and Engineering Roadmap & Service Delivery Manager Senah Javed will cover the Statements of Need for the System Restart under high DPV conditions Service, Zero Synchronous Generation Trial, GFM Inverter Fault Current Trial, and the Black Start from IBR Trial at this online event.


November 10
Making your energy project business case

Grattan Institute Energy and Climate Change Program Director Alison Reeve and Principal and Senior Director of Sustainability Business at Schneider Electric Lisa Zembrodt will speak at this Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity online event.


November 12
National Press Club

Japan’s Ambassador to Australia Kazuhiro Suzuki will address the National Press Club on "Girt by sea and in the same boat: 50 years of Japan-Australia relations and beyond” at this Canberra event.


November 13
Australian Electric Vehicle Association Annual Conference

Smart Energy Lab General Manager Glen Morris and zero-emissions vehicle expert Nathan Gore-Brown will speak at this Melbourne event.


November 18
National Press Club

FutureCoal (formerly known as the World Coal Association) CEO Michelle Manook will address the National Press Club on “the myths and future of coal” at this Canberra event


November 25
The NEM Review and Firming up the Transition

NEM Review Chair Tim Nelson, CEFC CEO Ian Learmonth, Transgrid CFO Nadine Lennie, and AEMO Executive GM Violette Mouchaileh will speak at this CEDA event in Sydney.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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