Unlocking network capacity for a song


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Tapping rooftop solar — for a price
  • CER not well accounted for in the models
  • Govt eyes home grown wind towers

Mismatch on network costs coming to a head

There's no doubt more capacity can be squeezed out of existing distribution networks as they learn to harness rooftop solar, but just how much and at what cost is hotly contested.

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s Draft ISP reckons additional export capacity of 3.5 gigawatts can be found before network owners have to resort to costly new physical infrastructure.

AEMO and the network operators suggest that by upgrading substation controls to better manage voltage levels, it can be achieved across the National Electricity Market by spending about $160 million.

Individual networks' spending plans suggest a larger sum — about $320 million — may be required for new systems to encourage customers to shape their grid exports and imports to support rather than undermine the balance of supply and demand.

So who is right?

How consumer energy resources could break the models

Between a flattened duck, yoyos and mobile power stations, Australians’ love of home-grown electricity is set to upend energy system forecasting as we know it.

Developers, financiers, traders, and operators all need to begin incorporating the impacts of uncoordinated consumer energy resources (CER) including EVs as a foundational consideration, writes market modeller Bobby Heyer.

Expert view

“We are moving from predicting the use of stationary kettles and air conditioners, to predicting the use of decentralised power plants that head to the beach on weekends. This isn’t merely a load surge; it’s a geographic shift.

If a weather event (such as that of 26 November 2025 in NSW) coincides with a mass-transit event (eg a holiday weekend), the grid could see multi-megawatt swings in load that are invisible to the transmission operator until they happen. We are moving from a system of managing load to managing millions of micro-traders. For a sector that relies on long-term certainty for infrastructure planning, this unpredictability is not just a headache; it is a fundamental breakage of the planning model.”

Bobby Heyer
Principal, EPEC Group

Govt seeks ideas on home grown wind towers

The federal government is eyeing local supply chains for wind and transmission towers as it pushes forward with its Future Made in Australia agenda. It’s now inviting industry feedback on how to help Australian manufacturers build new capabilities for manufacturing wind turbines and related infrastructure.

Manufacturing capacity, workforce issues, foreign investment strategies, regulatory changes, and gaps in existing industry are all on the table as the government canvasses options for short (1-4 year) and long term (5 years+) capacity growth.

Citing AEMO estimates that Australia will need 57GW of wind capacity by 2050 the consultation, which is open until March 6, will evaluate Australia’s current manufacturing capacity and supply chain risk management, and identify new opportunities ahead of expected surges in onshore and offshore wind farm deployment in coming decades.

Expert view

“It’s encouraging to see the government directly engaging with industry on how to grow a domestic clean energy manufacturing sector.

It's important to reinforce that the strongest lever available is volume certainty. It’s not just about what we can manufacture today, but whether suppliers can see a credible pipeline, generally at least 1–2GW of consistent annual builds, backed by coordinated grid and project delivery timelines. That’s what unlocks real investment decisions.

Our research shows Australia could generate around $35 billion in revenue and about 1,500 jobs within the next decade by reaching roughly one-third local content for wind supply chains.”

Heidi Lee
CEO, Beyond Zero Emissions

Catch Up

Capital

Neara, which uses AI to manage power grids, has become Australia’s latest unicorn, announcing it has closed an $90 million Series D funding round to reach a valuation of $1.1 billion. Support principally came from TCV, a global growth equity firm, which has previously invested in Netflix, among other start-ups. Returning investors included Partners Group, EQT, Square Peg Capital, and Skip Capital. "Across energy, transport, and communications, systems built for a different era are now being pushed beyond their design assumptions," said Jack Curtis, Co-founder and Chief Commercial Officer at Neara. "The world needs faster, more intelligent ways to understand what infrastructure is really capable of and how it behaves in the contexts that matter most.”

Data-centre demand on Australia’s power grid is set to increase after AI company Firmus secured a $14.2 billion ($US10 billion) finance package, led by private equity firm Blackstone, that will help Firmus build a series of vertically integrated ‘AI factories’ around Australia. Firmus’s business model revolves around building and selling data centre capacity for AI giants, with Firmus reportedly eyeing an IPO amid negotiations around a capacity supply deal with Meta. (AFR)

Brisbane based critical minerals miner RZ Resources is eyeing an ASX listing that could value the company at $1 billion, months after the US government named it as a potential future provider of energy transition-related critical minerals. RZ has been pencilled in for a $650 million ($US460 million) loan to help it speed up its Copi mineral sands project – one of multiple facilities that are gaining primacy as major economies pivot away from China to secure sources of minerals like copper, antimony, gallium, magnesium and neodymium that are essential for the manufacture of wind turbines, EVs and other equipment. (AFR)


Projects

A pair of wind turbine developments, located 56km off the shore of Victoria’s Gippsland, could deliver up to 2.8GW by the time they’re completed, with Danish firm Ørsted taking the projects another step towards fruition as it lodged the federal environmental application for the Gippsland 1 project. The current timeline should see feasibility studies complete by the end of 2027, with Ørsted ultimately planning to install up to 200 turbines and up to 120km of export cables. (Renew Economy)


Policy

Queensland will offer rebates of up to $4,500 to community housing properties across the state, with the new Queensland Community Housing Energy Upgrades program now open and set to continue until October 30. Part of the $116 million Queensland Social Housing Energy Performance Initiative, the program has an $18 million funding pool and supports the installation of ceiling insulation, draught proofing, electric appliances and hot water systems, solar PV systems and more.

Fixing the electricity system is amongst six ideas for policy reform to meet our climate targets proposed by Steve Hatfield-Dodds in The Conversation. He also suggests expanding the Safeguard Mechanism and ending fossil fuel subsidies. (The Conversation)


Energy systems

Developers of offshore wind turbines can now apply for R&D licenses to test their construction methods, anchoring techniques and other aspects of turbine construction in the Illawarra Offshore Wind Zone. Advocates say the area – which was chosen by DCCEEW for its strong and consistent winds and proximity to grid connections and areas of high demand – will be a crucial proving ground for technologies integral to helping Australia’s slowly-slowly offshore wind industry gain momentum to catch up with well-established international peers. (Illawarra Flame)


Regulation

The scale and legal ownership structure of Victoria’s oil and gas infrastructure will be discussed during proceedings of the Parliamentary Legislative Council Environment and Planning Committee on Wednesday February 11, with hearings to be held at Leongatha Memorial Hall and streamed live from 12:00pm. The hearings will span a range of topics including onshore development, works in Commonwealth and Victorian waters, ensuring cost effective decommissioning of oil and gas infrastructure, and evaluating exposure to leaked greenhouse gases. (Vic Parliament)

The government should commission a comprehensive review of electricity prices if it wants to tackle the problems in retail, the Grattan Institute has written in a submission to the review of proposed changes to the Prohibiting Energy Market Misconduct Act. Only about 20% of customers switch retailers in any given year, despite government efforts to make switching easier. At last count, there were 145,500 plans in the market.

“Relentless lobbying” by Japanese gas companies has swayed Australian fossil fuel infrastructure, new research from InfluenceMap has revealed, with Japanese companies’ equity stakes making them among the most significant foreign investors in Australia’s fossil fuel infrastructure – having invested over $71 billion ($US50 billion) in 13 export projects that would release up to 290 million tonnes of CO2 annually, the equivalent of nearly 50 large-scale coal-fired power stations. (InfluenceMap)


Climate

Last year was officially Australia’s fourth warmest year since records began in 1910, the BOM has reported in its Annual Climate Statement 2025, with the national average annual temperature 1.23°C above the 1961-1990 average. Rainfall was 503mm on a nationally averaged basis – 8% above 1961-1990 averages – yet surface water storage levels declined 5% last year and 14% across the crucial southern Murray-Darling Basin. Sea surface temperatures increased to 0.93°C above 1961-1990 averages, outpacing global temperatures that were 0.71°C above 1961-1990 averages.


Research

University of Sydney researchers have developed a sunlight-powered process that extracts clean hydrogen from fresh water and seawater. The technique taps the natural chemistry of gallium to produce hydrogen with efficiency of up to 12.9%, which is expected to increase as the research team further refines the process.

Neural network algorithms are helping BESS manufacturers better understand variations in the state of energy (SOE) performance of lithium-ion batteries, whose characteristics vary widely under different operating conditions. Rapid scale-up of megawatt BESS systems poses “unprecedented scalability challenges”, researchers note in evaluating a broad range of algorithms for SOE estimation in smart grids.

What's On

February 8-11
World Renewable Energy Congress

Zenith Energy Executive ESG & Stakeholder Engagement Dominic Da Cruz, Pollination Managing Director Rob Grant, Western Australian Program Director for The Superpower Institute Jessica Shaw and European Renewable Energies Federation Vice-President Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes will speak at this Perth event also featuring researchers from around the world.


February 11
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics

AEMO Manager - Market Dynamics Kerry Galloway will speak at this webinar on the outcomes of the last quarter of 2025.


February 11
Delivering on the Queensland Energy Roadmap

CS Energy CEO Brian Gillespie will deliver the keynote at this Queensland Energy Club event in Brisbane.


February 17
Briefing: Innovative housing solutions alongside the renewable energy roll-out

Bart Sykes, Regional Economic Development Manager at Squadron Energy; Vincent Dwyer, Co-Founder and CEO at Energy Estate; and Jess Adler, Corporate & Business Services Manager at WImmera Southern Mallee Development will speak at this RE-Alliance webinar.


February 19
Running a Digital Grid: The Next Challenge in the Energy Transition

Dani Alexander, CEO of the UNSW Energy Institute will moderate this webinar from The Energy, also featuring Emma Fagan, General Manager for Policy and Regulatory Affairs with Akaysha Energy; and Antti Harjula, Technical Director of Power System Performance and Connections with Powerlink Queensland. Register here to attend, or to view the recording later if you can’t make it on the day.


February 24
Energy Security NSW

AEMC Commissioner & Reliability Panel Chair Rainer Korte will keynote this CEDA event in Sydney also featuring ASL CEO Nevenka Codevelle, Neoen Australia Head of Development Nathan Ling, Transgrid EGM of Network Jason Krstanoski and Australian Gas InfrastructureGroup EGM Customer & Strategy Cathryn McArthur.


February 26
Energy Security Queensland

AEMC Commissioner Rainer Korte will keynote this CEDA event in Brisbane, also featuring Energy Queensland EGM Regulation, Risk and Strategy Benn Barr; Powerlink EGM, Operations Stewart Bell; APA Group Operations Executive Petrea Bradford; and CleanCo Queensland EGM Asset Operations Rimu Nelson.


February 27
National Energy Transition Research Summit

Climate Change Authority CEO Kath Rowley will speak at this ACOLA event in Canberra, alongside Net Zero Economy Authority CEO David Shankey and Australia’s Chief Scientist Tony Haymet.


March 3
Clean Energy Investor Group Conference

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio will headline this Melbourne event also featuring ENGIE Australia Managing Director of Renewables and Batteries Laura Caspari, SEC Vic CEO Chris Miller, Queensland Renewable Energy Council CEO Katie-Anne Mulder, VicGrid CEO Alistair Parker, and Squadron Energy CEO Rob Wheals.


March 4-5
Energy Consumers Australia Foresighting Forum

Luis Gonzalez, Chief Data and AI Officer at Aboitz Power, Robert Gross, Director of the UK Energy Research Centre, and Harriet Thomson, Associate Director at the Glasgow Centre for Sustainable Energy will keynote this Sydney event. Industry speakers include EnergyAustralia CEO Mark Collette, Essential Energy CEO John Cleland, and Tim Jarratt, Group Executive, Market Development & Strategy, Ausgrid.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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