Transition deal breakers


Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy. In today's edition:

  • Mixed government signals hurting the transition
  • Future Made in Australia, with China
  • Farmers on the campaign trail

Getting smarter

Industry may be solving the energy transition’s technical, market and regulatory challenges, but there was an undercurrent of concern at Smart Energy 2025 in Sydney that governments were still the main stumbling block.

“Policy certainty is so important and as someone who implemented a comprehensive energy policy and now to see it changing, it’s almost heartbreaking. At some stage we need state and federal governments to agree on the direction of this nation - and everybody is going towards a renewable future - and sign up to that.” — Smart Energy Council International Ambassador and former Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Clean Energy Investor Group CEO Richie Merzian called for a national firmed energy strategy to lock-in the retirement of an ageing fleet of coal-fired power plants, as Queensland’s Callide gets a three-year extension to join NSW’s Eraring on life support.

He called for an investor and innovator advisory panel to be created, to work alongside the likes of AEMO’s ISP Consumer Panel to shape National Electricity Rules.

Pumped hydro champion and ANU Professor of Engineering Andrew Blakers said it was “game over” as renewables had won the race over nuclear and fossil fuels. But he warned a “hostile federal government” could still push Australia off its current trajectory of a grid dominated by solar and wind by 2031.

Energy Synapse Managing Director Marija Petkovic said there was no shortage of developer interest, even with big battery capacity doubling in 2024, as energy storage revenue streams start to monetise auxiliary services and arbitrage for greater “bankability”.

But the business case depends on the pace of coal closures.

“It’s a shame that policy uncertainty at both the state and federal level is our biggest potential stumbling block,” she said.

“This is particularly the case for medium and long-duration storage, for four-plus hours of storage regardless of whether it is battery or pumped hydro … The issue that we have is even though AEMO has created the ISP with their modelling of when coal should come out of the grid, we’ve had a chaotic government policy response to that.”

Future Made in Australia, with China

The federal government’s Future Made in Australia manufacturing policy - to fund clean energy projects and create jobs for the decarbonisation transition - cleared Parliament in February. While the policy is a key part of Labor’s election pledge to “build Australia’s future”, it has been criticised for being vague and too broad. The practical reality of this was on show at this week’s Smart Energy Council conference.

Expert view

“We get the same thing on a regular basis: 'How could it possibly be Australia made? We don’t make anything here.' The reality is we do. We just maybe don’t do it as well as we could, or maybe we don’t advertise as much as we should.

I personally believe the big strength that Made in Australia comes with is our ability to shift in the market as the market changes. We know we compete against Chinese products on a cost basis, and we absolutely slay them, on the basis of support and total value proposition, which is what Australian manufacturing brings.

But honestly, I think our legislative framework, our certification framework that’s been set up that we have to conform to here - it’s actually anti-Australian manufacturing. For example there are no test facilities in Australia or outside of mainland China.

Where I can get my batteries tested? So for me to get a product to market, for you to buy, I have to send batteries to China. I’d just like to point out that that’s illegal. Won’t tell you how we do it, but it’s the only way we can get the IEC test certifications required. For us to bring a product that converts DC to AC.. (an) inverter into the marketplace after you’ve got the base manufacturing standards ticked off, there’s another 17 layers of compliance required.

Simon Ceglinski
Head of Technical & Strategic Projects, PowerPlus Energy

Earlier at the event, Trina Solar Head of Australia and New Zealand Edison Zhou confirmed the Chinese company, which already manufactures in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the US, was still waiting on a funding decision from ARENA to help realise its Australian manufacturing ambition.

Trina Solar signed an MOU with Australia’s SunDrive Solar to make solar panels in Australia more than six months ago, with SunDrive leading an application for funding under the Australian Government’s $1 billion Solar Sunshot program.

“Probably they will announce in the second half of 2025 and the project will happen in 2026,” Zhou said.

Catch up

Policy


The NSW Government has partnered with NSW Farmers to promote a guidebook they say will help farmers engage confidently in renewable energy projects. The guidebook was developed in collaboration with the Queensland Farmers Federation and stems from an agreement between NSW Farmers, EnergyCo and ACEREZ to improve farmer, landholder and community understanding of the energy transition. Minister for Energy Penny Sharpe and Minister for Agriculture and Regional NSW Tara Moriarty will launch the guide at the Central-West Orana Renewable Energy Zone today.

The National Press Club debate between Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Shadow Minister Ted O’Brien quickly descended into an argument over which models to believe and who was or wasn't relying on the experts.

On the Coalitions energy policy Bowen said:

“They dismiss the advice of the CSIRO the energy market operator and the other experts. That's the essential difference of approach - we listen to the experts. Mr Dutton and Mr O'Brien think they know better than the experts.”

O’Brien said under Labor’s plan “Australia will become poorer, weaker and more dependent on foreign supply chains”. Asked whether the Coalition’s policy was to cap renewables at 54% as reflected in the Frontier Economics model for nuclear, O’Brien said:

“No, there’s no policy we have which is capping any technology…The modeling has been done estimating the amount of technology from each energy source and you're right renewables are going to be key, so too will gas so too will storage, so too will nuclear. Cap suggests that you put a firm level and no more and that’s never been our policy.”

Greens Leader Adam Bandt proposed a “renters right to solar” scheme, paid for through a new $10 billion fund established through Commonwealth-owned Snowy Hydro. Solar would be installed at rental properties, with upfront costs paid by the government, under the plan designed to open up access to lower power bills and reduced emissions for Australia’s seven million renters.

Projects


Neoen said its 238.5 MW / 477 MWh Blyth Battery was now operational. The project, which was completed ahead of schedule last year, will deliver on Neoen’s first-ever renewable energy baseload contract, helping firm wind power from the company’s Goyder South Stage 1 wind farm to power operations at BHP‘s Olympic Dam.

People


Economist John Fingleton has been appointed to lead the UK Prime Minister’s Nuclear Regulatory Taskforce in one of the world’s most expensive countries in which to build nuclear power. The taskforce’s panel of nuclear experts is yet to be announced.

Regulation


The AEMC opened consultation on a rule change request to introduce two new forecasts of reliability and supply adequacy in the east coast gas system. The change would see a short-term (7 day, published daily) and medium-term (12 month, published weekly) outlook of demand, supply and infrastructure capacity so participants can better shift gas demand before the situation requires AEMO intervention. Submissions close May 8.

Technology


Artificial intelligence will drive a surge in electricity demand from data centres while also unlocking opportunities to cut costs, enhance competitiveness, spur innovation and reduce emissions, according to an International Energy Agency report. The IEA forecast electricity demand from data centres worldwide to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours, largely driven by AI. But data centres will still represent less than 10% of projected electricity demand growth by 2030, and in the meantime AI could help offset the emissions this creates. The role of AI in scientific discovery could also accelerate innovation in energy technologies such as batteries and solar PV, the IEA said.

Facet Amtech, an SME licensing technology from the University of Newcastle to improve energy efficiency in ammonia production moved to the final stage of CSIRO’s ON Accelerate program, a structured three-month accelerator for entrepreneurial researchers looking to commercialise their ideas.

Google said it would partner with US grid operator PJM Interconnection to develop a new set of AI tools and models to manage and optimise grid connections.

Research


In a paper published in Energy Research & Social Science, Griffith University’s Dr Ellie Martus examined the politics of metallurgical coal in Australia. The fundamental role steel plays in renewable energy infrastructure, coupled with the present lack of economically viable alternatives to metallurgical coal in steel production, paradoxically means that metallurgical coal is central to decarbonisation – at least for now, Martus writes.

What's on

April 11
Uralla Shire Council community event

Grattan Institute’s Alison Reeve, Geoscience Australia’s Dr Andrew Feitz, and Climateworks’s Dr Nelika Hughes will discuss development, policy, careers and the future of renewables in the Uralla region.


April 14
Melbourne Energy Institute Public Lecture

Ángela Flores from the University of Chile will discuss how power systems are facing increasing pressure from climate change.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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