Energy on the crossbench


Hey Reader, Welcome to The Energy. We're excited to say our website is now live! In today's edition:

  • A complex election pitch
  • Chris Bowen's Term 1 report card
  • Market updates from Woodside, GE Vernova and Tesla

Teal, maroon or orange: indies are here for the future

Pundits were shocked when Australian voters backed intelligent, independent women who wanted integrity in politics and a more ambitious approach to climate and energy policy.

Polling suggests the new normal is a federal parliament with a three-way split: Labor, Coalition, and an increasingly complex crossbench of Greens, independents and others.

But that doesn’t mean the majors should give up on winning on climate and energy policy.

Expert view

"Where climate change is a factor in how swing voters will decide, the Coalition’s plan for nuclear energy is problematic - and has similarities with the 2019 election which was divisive over the Adani mine debate fuelling a north-south, regional-versus-city divide narrative.

"Premier David Crisafulli was voted in on a non-nuclear ticket, but Peter Dutton’s comments that any federal coalition government will override that, could work against the Coalition in the inner-city seats of Brisbane and the southwest corner.

“Greens should hold onto Ryan with their 8.7% swing in 2022, but there is a chance that margin could be reduced, meaning that we may see a teal or community independent backed candidate in 2028.”

Dr Maxine Newlands
Adjunct Principal Research Fellow, James Cook University

Expert view

"The teals have done to the Liberals what the Greens did to Labor, but what Dutton has clearly decided is to try and find a pathway to government without that vote. He’s got our problem but he’s that much further to the right to begin with.

“What Whitlam and Hawke did was hold a much bigger constituency than Labor had ever worked out how to hold before.

"It’s hard, and it’s getting harder and harder to do with the rise of the right and the fragmentation of the left. The centre Labor is trying to hold is very diverse – the progressive middle class and the traditional working-class vote.

"The majors should be trying to respond, to manage it. But it’s become exponentially more complicated in terms of how people identify and think.

"We need to work hard to be ambitious while holding the centre.”

Felicity Wade
National Co-convenor, Labor Environment Action Network

Chris Bowen's Term 1 report card

It is Chris Bowen’s lot as a cabinet minister to be judged after barely three years in a portfolio – climate and energy – where new policies can take many years to bear fruit.

Adding insult to injury, he inherited a policy vacuum from his predecessor, had no support from the opposition, had to negotiate new legislation with crossbenchers, and faced local echoes of a global backlash against renewable energy and decarbonisation.

It would be tough without these challenges. He tackled a ministry that’s been a poisoned chalice for many of his predecessors with energy and zeal. He made progress beefing up the Safeguard Mechanism for heavy industry emissions cuts, kick-starting stalled investment in grid scale wind, solar and (notably) batteries, and securing Australia’s first serious vehicle emissions standards.

Yet because these are still works-in-progress, and thanks to some glaring omissions, stalled emissions reductions and “hostage-to-fortune” predictions on power bills and renewables’ grid share, it’s hard to rate his overall performance higher than a pass.

Expert view

"We were already behind schedule and while we have had a seismic shift in policy, the implementation has been very slow and in some areas has not achieved any practical results.”

Stephanie Bashir
Principal, Nexa Advisory

Expert view

"We don't know yet whether they're going to really deliver in terms of emissions reduction, in terms of renewables, in terms of reliability, and in terms of price.

​“So it is messy. We are in probably what was always going to be the messiest part of the transition."

Tony Wood
Energy Program Director, Grattan Institute

Catch up

Capital


Positioning itself as a “global LNG powerhouse”, Woodside Energy released a Q1 update to the market, with full-year guidance unchanged and the Scarborough Energy Project on schedule for first LNG cargo in the second half of 2026. Woodside said it was progressing “at pace” towards a final investment decision on Louisiana LNG, which has a Foreign-Trade Zone - enabling the project to defer payment of tariffs until completion of each LNG train.

“Customer demand for Woodside’s LNG remains robust. The 15-year sale and purchase agreement with China Resources announced during the quarter was Woodside’s fourth new long-term contract with a regional customer in just over a year.

"The exceptional value proposition offered by Louisiana LNG was further demonstrated by our 17 April agreement for long-term supply of LNG to Uniper, whose leadership in European energy markets make it an ideal foundation customer for the project."
— Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill.

Meanwhile China's CNOOC agreed an LNG deal with UAE’s Adnoc to replace US supply. China’s state-backed energy firms and privately controlled gas distributors may have to renegotiate long-term US contracts, according to analysts.(Reuters) (South China Morning Post)

Shares of US energy giant GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) rose 9% after it reported higher than expected first-quarter revenue. The pinch of US policy was having an impact though, with nearly a quarter of its annual spending to be impacted by tariffs and steel-related costs. The company's offshore wind business will be the hardest hit, and in Q1 saw a 44% drop in orders. (Reuters)

Tesla profit fell 71% in Q1 (ABC)

Projects


Origin Energy’s 1.5GW Yanco Delta Wind Farm development project secured a full 1,460MW allocation of transmission access rights from EnergyCo, supporting a Final Investment Decision targeted for the middle of the 2027 financial year. Origin said it intended to contract for all or the majority of the offtake from the wind farm and continued to assess options to finance the project, including through partnerships with capital providers.

“We look forward to continuing to work closely with our host landowners and local stakeholders to develop and construct Yanco Delta Wind Farm in a way that minimises impacts and ensures the region gets to share in the benefits that will flow from a project of this scale.” — Origin CEO Frank Calabria

Someva Renewables and AGL Energy’s wind and battery project was also among the first to be granted an access right in the South West REZ.

“The awarding of an Access Right in the South West REZ marks an important step forward for the Pottinger Energy Park. The Pottinger Energy Park is expected to provide a major boost to the Riverina’s economy and make a lasting contribution to NSW’s renewable energy ambitions.” — Someva Managing Director Jamie Chivers

EnergyCo granted access rights to wind, solar and large-scale battery projects with a combined generation capacity of 3.56GW after receiving bids for around four times the indicative tender target of 3.98GW.

“The South West Renewable Energy Zone is expected to drive more than $17 billion in private investment in solar, wind and energy storage projects, and this landmark tender shows the high interest in investing in NSW. These projects will help ensure NSW has enough renewable energy generation and storage when coal-fired power stations retire. They also give certainty to host-communities, who will directly benefit from the fees paid by these companies to connect to the REZ.” — NSW Climate Change and Energy Minister Penny Sharpe

Policy

The Australian Electric Vehicle Association (AEVA) called on the next federal government to commit to financial assistance for a reliable network of public charging infrastructure. ​​But it must be appropriate for the location and situation as with markedly different costs and usage patterns, some installations represent poor value for money when done badly.

“Ultra rapid DC chargers really belong on busy routes between cities, so drivers can be on their way in 20 minutes. Slower AC chargers are best suited to workplaces, or wherever the vehicle is parked for hours on end. Workplace charging through the day should be widely supported, as this utilises very low cost renewable energy, and reduced demand on the grid at night.” — AEVA National President Dr Chris Jones

Rising utility bills have Americans worried. (Canary Media)

Technology



SSEN Transmission announced a milestone in unlocking the full potential of high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems to support the energy transition. (Project Scotland)

Research


An analysis by independent think tank Climate Energy Finance found the Coalition’s nuclear plan would cost the Australian economy at least $4.3 trillion by 2050 attributed to the hollowing out of Australian industry, permanently higher total energy costs, uncosted unabated carbon pollution and trillions of dollars in lost GDP.

“It beggars belief that this is the best the party representing itself as alternative federal government can come up with, as the nation stands on the brink of an immense generational opportunity to remake itself as a global renewables superpower and green energy export leader in a rapidly decarbonising world.” Clean Energy Finance Director Tim Buckley

Random


China wants to build a nuclear power plant on the moon (Reuters)

What's on

April 30
AEMO webinar

AEMO Group Manager - Electricity Reform Delivery Luke Barlow will lead the final CER Data Exchange Industry Co-design webinar at 3.30pm AEST.


May 1
CEDA Climate and Energy Summit

Superpower Institute Director Professor Ross Garnaut and Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean will deliver keynotes at this Melbourne event. They will be joined by Victorian Minister for Energy Lily D'Ambrosio and AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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