Dodging the decarbonisation wall


Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy.

In today's edition:

  • More momentum needed to transition the Hunter
  • Transmission is costly but delaying costs more
  • Climate leader signs on to shape transition

Dodging the decarbonisation wall

The emerging Hunter precincts need green hydrogen, reliable zero-emissions electricity and its transmission, and carbon capture, according to industrial ecologist Chris Oughton.

In many respects the Hunter is very similar to the Kwinana Industrial Area in Western Australia, with Kwinana a fair way ahead.

Without clarity, there is a lack of direction and momentum in the Hunter. The interest is there, but interest doesn’t build infrastructure. Commitment does, and governments do, he says.

Expert view

"There’s an optimistic group of people – industry large and small, the education and government sectors, and innovators, all with a palpable and clear interest in the future. They recognise and understand the challenges faced by other groups and are willing to assist with identifying solutions.

An industry body with genuine representation across energy-intensive manufacturers could play a pivotal role here — guiding planning, aligning investment, and pressing governments to deliver enabling infrastructure.”

Dr Chris Oughton
Industrial decarbonisation consultant and Adjunct Professor of Industrial Ecology, Murdoch University

The cost of inaction and delay

AEMO’s recent sanity check on transmission costs, along with the Victorian transmission plan have triggered ‘cost blowout’ headlines, but consultant Stephanie Bashir has also run the numbers on the alternative.

Expert view

"The AEMO electricity networks options report states a 10-60% increase in transmission costs of key projects. While these are significant in the context of transmission infrastructure, the cost of further delays and inaction continues to be far greater.

Our modelling at Nexa Advisory from two years ago showed that a three-year delay in NSW transmission build out could increase household electricity bills by up to 21% and business bills by 23%, and in Victoria delays could increase household electricity bills by up to 8%, and small business bills by 11% over the period of the modelling — a scenario we’re now living through.”

Stephanie Bashir
Principal, Nexa Advisory

Nexa Advisory ran the numbers in 2023 on delaying VNI West, showing cost increases far outweighed by the wholesale cost of electricity due to reliance on gas and the unreliability of coal power stations.

Change in residential customer bills if VNI West is delayed by a number of years

Climate leader signs on to shape transition

The Net Zero Economy Authority appointed John Connor as First Assistant Secretary for Policy and Communications, effective July 28, to help shape the fate of those on the frontlines of the energy transition.

“It is vital that Australians, particularly regional Australians, including Indigenous people, see a pathway to prosperity as well as be acknowledged for their contributions. Potentially affected workers and communities need to be partners as we use all the tools available to crowd-in investment in transforming regional economies,” Connor said.

“He’s been CEO of the Carbon Market Institute (CMI), Executive Director of the Fiji COP23 Presidency Secretariat, and CEO of The Climate Institute. He’s helped shape carbon market reforms, led national conversations on decarbonisation, and built trusted coalitions across government, business, unions and civil society.
Fun fact: back in 2008, John helped launch the Southern Cross Coalition (TCI, ACTU, ACOSS, ACF) calling for a national transition authority to support affected workers and communities. Now, he’s joining us to help deliver on that vision.” — Net Zero Economy Authority CEO David Shankey

Catch up

Capital

An analysis of global investment flows by the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that while data centre operators have a clear preference for renewables and nuclear power, regulatory barriers and cost uncertainties had led many to turn to gas. (AFR)

The IEA forecast global energy investment to increase in 2025 to a record US$3.3 trillion despite geopolitical tensions and recession fears. Globally, spending on low-emissions power generation has almost doubled over the past five years, led by solar PV. Battery storage investments are also climbing rapidly, surging above US$65 billion this year. But investment in grids, now at US$400 billion per year, is failing to keep pace with overall spending on generation and electrification.

The lithium winter is deepening, and even Greenbushes is no longer safe, putting thousands of local jobs at risk. Greenbushes is one of the world's biggest hard-rock lithium spodumene mines, co-owned by China’s Tianqi (SHE: 002466), IGO (ASX: IGO) and American chemicals giant Albemarle (NYSE: ALB) and operated by unlisted Talison Lithium. But all six of WA’s operating lithium mines are feeling the pinch. (The West)

On the eve of a scheduled shutdown, Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) was ordered to keep a 50-year power plant running to help avert a “national energy emergency”. The justification? Portions of the electricity grid operated by the largest grid operator in the US, PJM Interconnection, had a shortage of facilities for the generation of electric energy and resource adequacy concerns, according to the third Section 202(c) emergency order issued by the US Department of Energy in the past two weeks.


Projects

Former BP Australasia president Greg Bourne, now a councillor at the Climate Council, warned the North West Shelf extension, while inevitable, would unleash billions of tonnes of emissions, threaten ancient rock art, and deliver a “pittance” in economic returns to Australians. (7am)

China approved 11.29 GW of new coal power plants in the first three months of 2025, already exceeding the 10.34 GW approved in the first half of 2024, according to a new Greenpeace report. (Reuters)

More than 600 GW of clean energy capacity is at risk of cancellation if the Trump administration’s tax credit cuts are passed into law, according to analysis by project tracker Cleanview. The cut would represent roughly half of America's entire current electricity generation capacity.

Separate analysis by BloombergNEF found wind, solar and storage capacity overall would drop by 10% by 2035 relative to a baseline scenario under the tax bill.


Policy

A sharp decline in New Zealand’s gas reserves shows why it was right to overturn the oil and gas ban, according to Resources Minister Shane Jones, with the government willing to become a cornerstone investor in gas production. Petroleum reserves data released by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment showed gas reserves reduced 27% as of Jan 1 compared to a year earlier. (RNZ) (NZH)

“As well as removing the exploration ban, the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill which comes back before the House soon, better balances the regulatory burden and risk of decommissioning and gives the regulator more flexibility in how exploration permits are issued, giving the sector confidence to get to work.” — NZ Resources Minister Shane Jones

Regulation

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released a series of drafts on the regulation of projects under the NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap but is delaying the finalisation of supporting guidelines until after the NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water has completed its update of the NSW framework (the Electricity Infrastructure Investment Act and Regulation).

In December, several legislative changes affected the way NSW Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) supporting guidelines applied to network operators, prompting AER to publish a Guidance Note that sets out how these changes ]impact existing and future Network Operators. A result of this change has meant the Cost allocation guideline and Legal and functional separation guideline will not be finalised, AER said.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) granted interim authorisation to allow the Battery Stewardship Scheme to continue with limited levy and rebate adjustments, which the Battery Stewardship Council described as a major milestone for battery recycling and product stewardship in Australia.


Climate

South Australia’s 2025/26 Budget allocated $8.3 million for Adelaide to prepare to host the COP31 summit, if Australia’s bid for the international climate conference is successful. The government will also have to spend $3.8 million to oversee the sale of hydrogen turbines after the Whyalla rescue package forced the deferral of the hydrogen jobs plan. (ABC)

Tasmania, as the first jurisdiction to hit net zero, marked 10 consecutive years of annual net zero greenhouse gas emissions. While in disarray politically and fiscally (facing its fourth state election in seven years), Environment Minister Madeleine Ogilvie said the data reflected the state’s ongoing investments in renewable sources of energy and carbon sinks in the managed forests.

“We’re proud of the fact that in 2020, Tasmania became one of only a few jurisdictions in the world to achieve 100 per cent self-sufficiency in the generation of renewable sources of energy. Maintaining Tasmania’s image as a clean and green place in which to live, work and raise a family is an important part of our 2030 Strong Plan for Tasmania’s Future.” — Environment Minister Madeleine Ogilvie

People

New energy engineering jobs are growing so fast that one third go unfilled, Bloomberg reported, in a deep take on 'The Missing Engineers' in the energy transition.

Beyond Zero Emissions CEO Heidi Lee joined Deloitte host Sandra James on a podcast about women transforming energy and resources.


Research

Meaningfully involving people in energy transition projects early, and in a transparent way, fosters trust and social acceptance, according to a new study from Central Europe. The meta-analysis also found when public participation was handled poorly it could increase resistance.


Random

It’s too easy for the right to play off the politics of grievance so the Democrats set out to study young men and find out why they are losing this politically alienated voting bloc. (Politico)

What's on

June 6
National Competition Policy analysis 2025

The Productivity Commission’s call for submissions has a June 6 deadline for an occupational licensing scheme that provides for labour mobility nationally and other competition reform options identified as a priority during the policy study.


June 11
Australia Energy Regulator stakeholder forum

An online forum will be held with electricity and gas retailers and other stakeholders to discuss the findings of the Review of payment difficulty protections in the National Energy Customer Framework.

June 17-20
Australia Energy Week

Energy Minister Chris Bowen, Ausgrid CEO Marc England, AEMC Chair Anna Collyer, EnergyAustralia Managing Director Mark Collette, Woodside Energy COO Liz Westcott and NEM review Chair Tim Nelson headline this Melbourne event.


June 24-25
Noosa Power & Energy Conference

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Grattan Institute Energy and Climate Change Program Director Tony Wood, Windlab Director of Policy Maggie Shelton and Energy Estate Co-founder Simon Currie are speaking at this new Queensland event.


July 29-30
Australian Clean Energy Summit (ACES) 2025

AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman, AEMC Chair Anna Collyer, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, AGL CEO Damien Nicks, Iberdrola Australia CEO Ross Rolfe and Squadron Energy CEO Rob Wheals are among the lineup at the Clean Energy Council’s flagship event in Sydney.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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