A message for ministers


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Please, no more reviews
  • Gas review homework due
  • Eraring hangs on NEM review

Scope for ministerial delay

The Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council will meet on Friday with electricity and gas market reviews in the pipeline as cover for delaying key decisions.

Expert view

“While the ministers talk system security, a key to unlocking it lies with governments ensuring distribution and transmission networks publish network capacity and operations data to attract private capital and better reward batteries for enhancing capacity. It is also no secret that the nation’s regulatory processes are slowing the transition. At this meeting we need energy ministers to commit to streamlining approvals, reducing costs and getting critical infrastructure built sooner.

Households are doing a lot of the heavy lifting with rooftop solar and batteries, and networks have no place trying to control consumer energy resources. Ministers should direct networks to facilitate, not control, the uptake of home batteries and solar, building trust and social licence while delivering real bill savings for all.

No one can afford more delay or tinkering around the edges. Every minister in that meeting needs to commit to decisive and coordinated action on the clean energy transition.”

Stephanie Bashir
Principal, Nexa Advisory

Gas review homework due

An extension of the foundational Gladstone liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal with South Korea would not be in the national interest, the Gas Market Inquiry has been told.

A “leap of faith” by Santos (ASX: STO) was at the heart of a previous gas supply crisis and any new or extended multi-year export agreements should be subject to a national interest test. Further, all exports of LNG should be immediately subject to an annual permitting mechanism, Lock the Gate told The Energy.

Santos was contacted for comment on Supply and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) and official forecasts.

Expert view

“If the Kogas contract extension did not occur in 2031 it would flip the script on east coast gas supply and demand dynamics within the critical 5-10 year window identified in the Gas Market Review consultation.

It appears we are faced with two scenarios. Either GLNG has misled the ACCC by implying the Kogas contract extension is locked in or Santos has failed in its ASX disclosure duties. We think it’s likely to be the former. Importantly, the ACCC data shows that GLNG does not have the gas resources to deliver on this contract extension.

Governments should never have allowed gas exporters like GLNG to enter into contracts to export gas they didn’t even have. The Gas Market Review presents a ripe opportunity to right these wrongs.”

Harriet Kater
Clean Industry Coordinator, Lock the Gate Alliance

Eraring hangs on NEM review

Origin Energy (ASX: ARG) said it would make a decision next year on whether to let Eraring die or invest more capital, allowing time for the Nelson review’s direction to become clear.

Origin’s deal with the NSW Government to delay the scheduled closure of operations at Australia’s largest coal-fired power station to August 2027 to shore up the state’s power supply came with a requirement that the plant would retire in full by April 2029.

CEO Frank Calabria told analysts on a webcast that the needs of the market would feed into the timing, as well as decisions on whether to build new assets or contract for supply.

“What we’re really looking at is how do you continue to allocate capital wisely in a market that has uncertainty, and we have done that,” he said.

“The final decisions of both timing and choice will be determined by a range of factors … (and) the direction of the Nelson review, to make sure we’re confident about that as well. Nothing to suggest it’s not at the moment - they’re focusing in the right areas, there’s just a bit of detail to be worked through that’s important.

Meanwhile Eraring is being kept “up to scratch” with units maintained and a planned outage coming up in September.

Unlike Santos, Calabria said “at least” half of Origin’s Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) reserves were beyond export contracts.

Catch Up

Capital

Origin Energy supports a plan to carve up Britain’s largest power and gas retailer, which it owns a stake in. Under the restructure, Kraken would be spun out, with existing Octopus shareholders – including Origin (23%) – receiving shares in the new company. Octopus also plans to sell up to 20% of Kraken in a transaction implying the platform is worth £10 billion, crystallising a windfall of more than $950 million for Origin. Origin’s FY25 result underlined the advantage of a diversified portfolio, with underlying profit up more than 25% and guidance that gas earnings will continue to rise. (The Australian) (AAP)

The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) allocated $3.6 million in funding to Western Australia’s Horizon Power from the Regional Microgrids Program to transition a remote First Nations community in Blackstone (Papulankutja) from diesel generation to a more reliable and cheaper to run clean energy microgrid. The Blackstone Hybrid Energy Project, with a $9.2 million from the state government, will have up to 778kW of solar panels, a 2MWh battery energy storage system and 400kW of diesel generation. Horizon will also establish a Community Energy Fund to return financial benefits directly to the community.

“The success of this project could serve as a blueprint for delivering accessible, affordable and clean energy to other remote First Nations communities.”
Darren Miller
ARENA CEO

Ecotone Partners, led by former Impact Investment capital raising boss Amanda Goodman and ex-Rampersand investment director Nicole Kleid Small, has drawn $25 million worth of interest from a cluster of family offices, including Robyn Denholm’s Wollemi Capital, for its new climate-focused debt and equity fund. (AFR)

“Working as an impact investor and capital advisor to climate companies, I kept seeing promising businesses fall into a funding black hole. There were companies with proven tech, ready to scale and capable of delivering near-term emissions reductions - yet were struggling to raise the capital they needed. They fell outside the mandate of both traditional VC and PE funds: too capital intensive or unable to deliver the ‘venture scale’ returns expected of software companies, yet too early for PE. I’m really excited to be bringing to market a fund designed to fill this critical gap.”
Amanda Goodman
Ecotone Partner

Projects

Queensland government’s Stanwell Corporation acquired the Lockyer gas-peaking project from Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners, with Stage 1 including up to 120MW of gas-fired generation and the potential for up to a further 850MW of capacity in Stage 2. Located 75km west of Brisbane, the project lies in an energy distribution hub at the intersection of the Roma-to-Brisbane gas pipeline and a 110kV electricity network substation.

The 500kV Humelink transmission line achieved “considered project” status under the National Electricity Rules, which means proponents of new renewable energy generators and energy storage facilities can start the process to connect directly to the nation-critical link. Main construction works for HumeLink, which will connect Wagga Wagga, Bannaby and Maragle, are expected to begin in coming weeks including 365km of new transmission lines.

“Once the project is connected to the network it will unlock the Snowy Hydro Scheme expansion project, Snowy 2.0, which will provide an additional 2,200 megawatts of on-demand energy into the grid – enough energy storage to power three million homes for a week. HumeLink will also allow more solar and wind generators, and battery and pumped-hydro energy storage facilities to connect directly to the NSW transmission network.”
Jason Krstanoski
Transgrid Acting Executive General Manager - Network

Policy

The competition watchdog wants to ensure new retail competition from batteries and virtual power plants doesn’t default to digital “walled gardens” dominated by the largest power companies. Early signs are good, ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb told The Energy at the Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit 2025.

The National Electricity Market (NEM) inquiry noted a big surge in home batteries in the mainland NEM states with “stronger competition in the emerging market in which virtual power plant services are supplied” where over three-quarters of customers are served by smaller providers. In retail electricity, the “big three” - AGL Energy (ASX: AGL), Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) and EnergyAustralia - have more than three-fifths of the market.

“We are seeing a higher proportion of small retailers than we see in terms of traditional electricity….We are really pleased to see it. So in essence, we are hoping this continues, rather than defaults to the current big three.”
Gina Cass-Gottlieb
ACCC Chair

Writing in The Australian, Energy Minister Chris Bowen said “deniers and delayers” were engaging in “strategic scepticism” on the energy transition and net zero, in the face of economic reality.

“China is around 19% of the world’s GDP but represents almost a third of global clean-energy investment. It has already surpassed its 2030 target of 1200 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity and, most experts agree, its emissions have peaked. Likewise, India’s renewable capacity is surging, with almost 50% of its power capacity comprised of non-fossil fuel sources. Solar PV and wind output was 20% higher in the first half of 2025 compared to last year."
Chris Bowen
Minister for Climate Change and Energy

US Department Of Energy mandates to retain retiring fossil power plants could cost US electricity consumers between US$3.1 billion and US$5.9 billion per year, according to a new report from consulting firm Grid Strategies, commissioned by four environmental groups.


Regulation

Payback on household batteries can be as low as four years with government

subsidies, according to a study by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC). However, rapid uptake brings important considerations for making sure all consumers benefit as the market matures. With results assuming the consumer chooses the best available battery to maximise their 10-year NPV, key findings on battery affordability include:

  • Virtual Power Plant participation emerged as a promising model, delivering strong individual returns while providing grid services
  • Average payback periods drop to 7.3 years with federal rebates, and as low as 4 years for NSW households participating in Virtual Power Plants
  • Budget batteries outperform premium brands financially, with NSW households seeing 10-year returns of $2,308 on average
  • ‘Evening peaker’ households and high-usage households see the fastest returns
  • Larger systems are becoming more common, for example in the NSW Ausgrid region the average system size was 7.1kW in FY24, up from 4.8kW in FY21.

Climate

Origin Energy also released an updated climate plan, reiterating its 2030 emissions reduction targets and the net zero emissions by 2050 goal despite last year extending the life of Eraring by two years to 2027. This action was taken to support security of power supply given the uncertainty in the timing of new renewables, firming and transmission infrastructure coming online, the company said, adding that ash re-use at Eraring had increased to 61%.

“We are growing renewable energy and storage in our portfolio as evidenced by actions to advance the development of the large-scale Yanco Delta Wind Farm, and capital commitments of $1.7 billion towards large-scale batteries under construction at Eraring and Mortlake power stations as well as additional storage offtake contracts.”
Scott Mortlake
Origin Chair

For Scope 1, 2 and 3 equity emissions intensity, Origin is targeting a 40% reduction by 2030 from a FY19 baseline and a 20 million tonne reduction in absolute Scope 1, 2 and 3 equity emissions by 2030, also from a FY19 baseline, saying that was consistent with the Paris Agreement. Shareholders will vote on the plan on October 15.


Research

Fossil fuels produced 41.4% of electricity in the OECD in May, the IEA’s latest monthly electricity statistics showed, with 41.7% coming from renewable sources and 16.5% from nuclear power. Generation from renewable sources increased by 6.0% year-on-year , with solar generation up 20.7% year-on-year and wind generation up 8.4%, mainly driven by OECD Europe.

What's On

August 18
National Press Club

Productivity Commission Chair Danielle Wood will speak on the “Growth imperative: How to fix our productivity problem” at this event in Canberra.


August 26-27
Australian Renewable Heat Conference

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, ARENA investment manager Peter Haenke, and AGL sustainability expert Brendan Weinert will speak at this event in Sydney.


August 26-28
2025 New Zealand Wind Energy Summit

NZ Minister of Energy Simon Watts, Secretary-General of the World Wind Energy Association Stefan Gsänger, Global Wind Energy Council CEO Ben Backwell, Commerce Commission Chair Dr John Small, and Transpower Executive General Manager - Future Grid John Clarke headline this event in Wellington, NZ.


September 1-3
Farming Forever National Summit

Farmers for Climate Action CEO Natalie Collard, Rewiring Aeteroa CEO Mike Casey, NSW EnergyCo Chair Paul Binsted, ANU Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions Professor Mark Howden and NAB Chief Climate Officer Jacqui Fox will speak at this Farmers for Climate Action event in Canberra.


September 2
Bias in action

ANU Institute for Infrastructure in Society Director Sara Bice, CEO of The Energy Charter Sabiene Heindl, Director of Partnerships and Engagement at Energy Estate Rosie King, and Head of Communications and Stakeholder Engagement at Ark Energy Melissa Pisani will speak at this renewable energy engagement webinar.


September 2-4
14th World Chambers Congress

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, CEFC Chair Steven Skala and Yurringa Energy CEO Arron Wood are among the speakers at this Melbourne event.


September 16
The Price of Power: The Future of Australia's Energy Sector

Bluescope Chief Executive, Climate Change and Sustainability Deborah Caudle, Alinta Energy CEO Jeff Dimery, AGL CEO Damien Nicks and Australian Energy Council CEO Louisa Kinnear will speak at this American Chamber of Commerce event in Melbourne, with R. Blair Thomas, CEO of US energy investment firm EIG speaking via Zoom.


RESULTS SEASON

Ampol
August 18
Petroleum refiner and fuel distributor Ampol (ASX: ALD) will announce first-half results.

Woodside Energy
August 19
Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) CEO Meg O’Neill and CFO Graham Tiver will release half-year results and brief investors.

Santos
August 20
Santos (ASX: STO) will release half-year results.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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