Qld's growing energy brain drain


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Queensland's transition skills problem
  • NSW dials up ambition
  • Outlook is peaky

Queensland energy brain drain runs deep

At least eight senior executives have left senior roles in the Queensland departments of energy and Treasury, and state-owned energy businesses, since the Liberal National Party government of Premier David Crisafulli was elected last October.

The departures come as the state government seeks a new energy roadmap based on a $1.4 billion extension of the life of ageing coal power stations.

The situation - borne of the government’s crusade to arrest its Labor predecessor’s renewables rollout, especially wind farms which are unpopular in regional Queensland - puts at risk national climate targets. Queensland has the second highest electricity carbon emissions after NSW of any state, and the lowest share of renewables in its grid.

NSW dials up ambition

Future NSW generation and energy storage have been supercharged with the release by AusEnergy Services Ltd (ASL) - formerly known as AEMO Services - of a new 20-year plan for the state’s energy transition and an analysis of the project pipeline that underpins it.

“To achieve 16GW of renewable generation in NSW by 2030 will require projects to progress through the development pipeline approvals, financing and construction processes much faster than has been achieved in the past … We’ve always had a focus on financial value, and this won’t change. But what we’ve learned is that the projects with local community support and a clear approach to managing delivery risk are more likely to be delivered on time. We’re calling on developers to bring forward these projects, including those at an early stage.”
Nevenka Codevelle
ASL CEO

The inaugural NSW Generation Investment Outlook (GIO) warns the pace of development needs to increase. But it is hoped the Infrastructure Investment Objectives (IIO) Report will spur generation and storage projects to work with network service providers and EnergyCo within Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) to bring on more energy, more quickly.

Actionable insights of the latest IIO:

  • Targeting 16GW of new generation by 2030, exceeding a 12GW minimum
  • objective
  • Targeting 42GWh of new long-duration storage infrastructure by 2034, exceeding a
  • 28GWh minimum objective
  • An additional tender for firming infrastructure including storage, demand response and aggregated batteries to commence in Q4 2025 for projects capable of serving the Sydney-Newcastle-Wollongong sub-region during peak periods by 2027-28
  • Additional larger tenders for long duration storage infrastructure in 2026 and 2027
  • Q2 2026 recommencement of NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap tenders for generation infrastructure.

The new GIO, which will track progress and issue regular updates, found:

  • A “healthy” pipeline of over 50GW of proposed generation capacity in NSW, including 12.5GW of projects already with development approval.
  • There is sufficient capacity in the pipeline to meet the minimum objectives
  • But current project lead times won’t be fast enough to meet the 16GW ambition unless roadblocks are fixed.

No one said it would be easy

Rooftop solar and energy efficiency are shaving energy demand from the grid, but a growing population and electrification means grid operators must prepare for peakier demand profiles and also face the task of managing a grid with dwindling midday demand amid explosive growth in rooftop solar, according to BloombergNEF’s latest market outlook.

Wind and solar energy supplied an average of 58.4% of the NEM’s midday power demand over 2Q 2025, peaking at 70% on April 5, 2025. In the first half of 2025, the average intraday arbitrage across the NEM was $328 per megawatt-hour – a 10% year-on-year increase. Spot prices turned negative 13% of the time, up from 9% a year earlier.

Energy storage is growing rapidly, with 9.1GW of utility-scale batteries under construction. BNEF’s base case forecasts capacity to reach 20.1GW by 2035.

For utility-scale solar, the permitting and grid connection process remains “tedious”, and social licensing issues are causing significant delays and cost overruns for big projects. Beyond 2030, BNEF expects utility-scale solar installations to slow as the technology approaches higher saturation levels and utility-scale solar continues to “self-cannibalize” the value of its own generation during peak hours.

A near doubling of utility-scale solar capacity to over 9.4GW by 2035 was forecast for NSW. However, in the near term, the state is expected to face some of the toughest permitting processes and social licensing challenges. In both Victoria and NSW, new capacity that was seeking to connect to the delayed VNI West Interconnector is expected to be deferred.

Queensland is tipped to see the greatest growth in wind installations, with capacity forecast to reach 8GW by 2035, despite the state government’s stance on renewables.

A record year was forecast for wind installations overall despite a sharp drop in the first six months, with 2.4GW to come online by the end of 2025. But the near-term forecast to 2030 was cut by 16% to reflect persistent challenges including ongoing delays to key transmission projects and the development process taking up to 10 years.

Catch Up

Capital

A consortium led by Abu Dhabi's National Oil Company (ADNOC) was granted a two-week extension to drill deeper into Santos’ (ASX: STO) books after bidding US$18.7 billion for Australia's second-biggest gas producer. The proposed deal may represent one of the most consequential transactions in the global energy sector but has red flags on regulatory hurdles, strategic alignment, and geopolitical risks. (AIInvest) (Reuters)

Tomago Aluminium will close in 2028, if not sooner, unless an affordable energy contract can be negotiated, smelter workers have been told. (Newcastle Herald)

Shares in Danish wind farm developer Orsted (ORSTED.CO) plunged by almost a third after it sought to raise US$9.4 billion in a rights issue on the back of adverse market developments in the US. (Reuters) (Heatmap)

Suspended production at a major lithium mine in China by the world’s biggest battery maker unleashed a huge rally in ASX-listed producers of the battery material. (AFR) (Reuters) (Bloomberg)

"CATL’s announcement will have an impact on supply, which has given the market another kick, but the question now is whether this is a short-term closure or part of a wider approach by China to reassess mining activities, in which case there could be longer-term implications.”
David Franklyn
Argonaut portfolio manager

Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) formed a 50-50 joint venture with sustainable production and recycling tech firm Livium (ASX: LIT) to commercialise the small cap’s patented lithium processing technology. (Capital Brief)


Projects

US engineering firm Fluor (NYSE: FLR) must pay at least $692 million to Santos and its Gladstone LNG co-venturers, with further sums owing, and the final amount ordered in Santos’ favour - with interest plus legal costs - to be determined in coming weeks, after the Queensland Supreme Court ruled in favour of Santos over an engineering and construction contract that was part of the project.

Miner BHP said it would lead a consortium of steelmakers and other industrial giants in a pre-feasibility study for carbon capture utilisation and storage hubs across Asia.


Policy

The Australian Electric Vehicle Association (AEVA) said the road user charge, currently under review by the federal Treasury with industry input, should not single out EVs to replace declining excise revenue. The consumer group said fuel excise should remain in place as a disincentive to driving petrol or diesel vehicles.

“A universal, mass x distance road user charge would serve the same role as fuel excise - a pay-by-use system which is proportional to the impact driving has on society and infrastructure. EV drivers don’t have a problem with it - we just want to ensure the system is fair.”
Chris Jones
AEVA National President

Western Australia’s major gas users, including mining companies and power generators, will have limited alternatives to gas for at least the next decade, but supply will begin to decline in just a few years, according to EnergyQuest. (Boiling Cold)

America's clean hydrogen dreams are fading, again (New York Times)


Technology

The upcoming “three-day Canberra huddle” must recognise that the world is not waiting for us to become comfortable with artificial intelligence, and Australia, with its already dismal productivity record, is falling further behind every week, former NSW Liberal minister Pru Goward writes in the AFR.


Climate

UK building rules focused on keeping warm in winter and saving on energy bills - not cooling - mean British housing is dangerously unprepared for climate change. (Guardian)

“What we are facing is climate brutality. That is the reality of the hotter weather coming down the track.”
Simon McWhirter
UK Green Building Council CEO

People

Ex-Fortescue boss Fiona Hick and Stephen Mikkelsen, an AGL and Snowy Hydro veteran, join Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) as independent Non-executive Directors from August 18.

“Together, they bring to the board extensive experience in the energy and resources sector across finance, engineering, operations, technology implementation and health, safety and environment. The diverse background and skills of Fiona and Stephen will further strengthen the board as Origin continues to execute its energy transition strategy.”
Scott Perkins
Origin Chair

Research

Support for energy, climate, and social policy depends on an individual’s energy insecurity, with the more “energy insecure” showing a greater preference for policies focused on the investment climate and compensation, according to London School of Economics Assistant Professor Liam F. Beiser-McGrath’s research paper in Energy Policy.

What's On

August 13-14
2025 Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit

Victoria’s Minister for Climate Action, Energy and Resources Lily D’Ambrosio, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Carbon Market Institute Chair Dr Kerry Schott, Co-Founder and CEO of CORE Markets Chris Halliwell, Investor Group on Climate Change CEO Rebecca Mikula-Wright and BHP Australia President Geraldine Slattery will speak at this event in Melbourne.


August 14
California Energy Commission DSGS Workshop

The California Energy Commission will hold an online workshop, Staff’s Analysis of the Demand Side Grid Support (DSGS) Program Performance in 2024, at 1:30-4pm local time.


August 14-15
First Nations Clean Energy Symposium

Government, industry, academics and regulators will join over 200 First Nations leaders from around Australia at this event on Kabi Kabi country (Sunshine Coast).


August 18
National Press Club

Productivity Commission Chair Danielle Wood will speak on the “Growth imperative: How to fix our productivity problem” at this event in Canberra.


August 26-27
Australian Renewable Heat Conference

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, ARENA investment manager Peter Haenke, and AGL sustainability expert Brendan Weinert will speak at this event in Sydney.


August 26-28
2025 New Zealand Wind Energy Summit

NZ Minister of Energy Simon Watts, Secretary-General of the World Wind Energy Association Stefan Gsänger, Global Wind Energy Council CEO Ben Backwell, Commerce Commission Chair Dr John Small, and Transpower Executive General Manager - Future Grid John Clarke headline this event in Wellington, NZ.


September 1-3
Farming Forever National Summit

Farmers for Climate Action CEO Natalie Collard, Rewiring Aeteroa CEO Mike Casey, NSW EnergyCo Chair Paul Binsted, ANU Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions Professor Mark Howden and NAB Chief Climate Officer Jacqui Fox will speak at this Farmers for Climate Action event in Canberra.


September 2
Bias in action

ANU Institute for Infrastructure in Society Director Sara Bice, CEO of The Energy Charter Sabiene Heindl, Director of Partnerships and Engagement at Energy Estate Rosie King, and Head of Communications and Stakeholder Engagement at Ark Energy Melissa Pisani will speak at this renewable energy engagement webinar.


September 2-4
14th World Chambers Congress

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, CEFC Chair Steven Skala and Yurringa Energy CEO Arron Wood are among the speakers at this Melbourne event.


September 16
"The Price of Power: The Future of Australia's Energy Sector"

Bluescope Chief Executive, Climate Change and Sustainability Deborah Caudle, Alinta Energy CEO Jeff Dimery, AGL CEO Damien Nicks and Australian Energy Council CEO Louisa Kinnear will speak at this American Chamber of Commerce event in Melbourne, with R. Blair Thomas, CEO of US energy investment firm EIG speaking via Zoom.


RESULTS SEASON

AGL Energy
August 13
AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) CEO Damien Nicks and CFO Gary Brown will release FY25 results and host a webcast.

Origin Energy
August 14
Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) will release FY25 results to the market and host a webcast.

Ampol
August 18
Petroleum refiner and fuel distributor Ampol (ASX: ALD) will announce first-half results.

Woodside Energy
August 19
Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) CEO Meg O’Neill and CFO Graham Tiver will release half-year results and brief investors.

Santos
August 20
Santos (ASX: STO) will release half-year results.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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