AGL weighs in on NEM review


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Damien Nicks seeks evolution
  • Tradies must follow the money
  • Give farmers tax deductions for infrastructure hosting: Kean

Evolution not revolution

The Nelson review gets a broad thumbs up from one of Australia’s biggest gentailers but there are some nerves.

“The building blocks and the thinking is there, but there’s still a lot of detail to be worked through and not all of that detail has been released and I think that will come as the next phase, AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) Chief Executive Damien Nicks told The Energy.

“They’ve talked about a sort of warehousing function. We don’t know where that’s going to sit, but that warehousing mechanism of long contracts, from that seven-to-eight years out, that’s part of the work that we need to understand,” he said.

“That’s probably the biggest question mark we have right now.”

“Would I say we love the market-making obligation? No, we don’t,” Hicks told analysts on a conference call, after posting a slump in full-year profit and signalled profits could fall further. “In our submission we were promoting a certificate mechanism.”

“However, we’re looking at this from an overall package perspective – what is the right thing for the market … We need to get this right. It’s an opportunity for us all to get this right.”

Tradies must follow the money

Deloitte Access Economics forecast employment in the utilities industry would contract by 5.1% (9,700 workers) in 2025-26, following a 16.3% (26,900 workers) expansion in 2024-25 on a surge of labour-intensive renewable and grid infrastructure projects.

“This expected decline reflects a normalisation in workforce demand as major projects transition from construction to operational phases. Despite the short-term pullback, the sector remains underpinned by a new wave of clean energy investment aligned with Australia’s net zero targets.”
Employment Forecasts: Reforming Australia’s Future report

The $20 billion Rewiring the Nation program will modernise transmission infrastructure, while the $22.7 billion Future Made in Australia agenda is stimulating industrial demand for green energy through investment in clean hydrogen and green metals, according to the latest quarterly forecast.

A national licensing scheme for electrical tradies is expected to improve productivity by encouraging highly skilled electrical workers to move where they are needed most. However, skilled workers will remain in short supply with technicians and trades expected to increase by a modest 0.3% (6,600 workers) in 2025-26 and apprenticeships at a record low.

Catch Up

Capital

Shares in AGL Energy tumbled after underlying net profit for FY25 fell 21% to $640 million, missing market expectations for $670 million, as profits from batteries were offset by higher prices for coal and gas burned by its generators. Revenue rose 6% to $14.4 billion. Australia’s largest greenhouse gas emitter pledged to have 6GW of renewable and storage assets in place by 2030, compared with its previous goal of 5GW, but some investors were disappointed the target wasn’t more ambitious. (AAP) (AFR) (The Australian)

Climate tech investment fund Virescent Ventures became the largest equity investor in a National Renewable Network (NRN) $67.2 million debt and equity raising for developing Virtual Power Plant (VPP) infrastructure. The investment in NRN follows Virescent’s investment in New Zealand-based ultra-fast EV charging infrastructure company Kwetta and is the second investment announced under a pot of money known as Fund II that is backed by cornerstone investors Westpac, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) and Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC).

A growing number of commodity merchants traditionally focused on oil, gas and metals are investing in utility-scale batteries in Europe to take advantage of the duck curve. (Bloomberg)


Projects

Tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes is selling up to half of his $40 billion SunCable renewable scheme and potentially scaling back the plan to export solar energy to Singapore via the proposed Australia-Asia Power Link, a 4200km subsea cable, in a bid to keep the project on track. Selling a substantial stake would green light a final investment decision (FID) in 2027. SunCable is also in talks with federal funding bodies including the $15 billion National Reconstruction Fund Corporation. (The Australian)

“The capital raise is going well, and we have had strong interest from multiple investors. We are well progressed with several parties, including investors who will bring capital and the capabilities to accelerate the development of the project. Our market engagement demonstrates confidence in this resource, and its ability to provide large scale, low-cost firmed renewable electricity to energy-intensive industry, such as AI data centres and green fuels and minerals processing, as well as launching a cross-border electricity trade with Southeast Asia.”
Grok spokesperson

India cancelled tenders for 4.5GW of offshore wind projects due to lack of interest from developers. (Energy Monitor)

Silva Capital’s Cooplacurripa Station on Biripi/Birpai Country, west of Taree in NSW, was announced as Australia’s first registered Nature Repair Market (NRM) project. Niche, a specialist biodiversity and heritage consultancy, said the project should send a clear message to policymakers that nature can and should be valued in Australia’s economy - using a consistent methodology nationally. But the reform of Australia’s environmental laws must be resolved urgently, Niche Managing Director Ian Rollins said.


Policy

Energy ministers will meet tomorrow in their second Ministerial Council for the year. Government and industry sources told the AFR an expected decision on Victoria’s proposal for underwriting gas import terminals had been indefinitely delayed. The meeting comes as the federal government continues to consult as part of a broader gas market review kicked off in June,

Demand signals, policy certainty and project standards are needed to support the carbon market, the Australasian Emissions Reduction summit was told, amid pressure to urgently accelerate Safeguard Mechanism reforms and progress Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) Scheme methodologies to attract finance for projects with integrity.

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean said in his keynote that Australia could seize a $50 billion carbon market opportunity by sending clear signals and expanding the supply and use of ACCUs. But farmers and First Nations communities should get a fair cut of carbon farming proceeds. To speed up the flagging rollout of renewables, he suggested “a big tax deduction” for farmers hosting transmission lines and solar or wind farms.

“The next phase of the ACCU market will be defined by confidence. Confidence from buyers to commit long term, from investors to fund new projects, and from communities to trust the outcomes. Getting the policy settings and delivery standards right now is critical. It will set the pace for Australia’s net zero journey.”
Marc Train
Corporate Carbon Group General Manager

BHP Australia President Geraldine Slattery said the mining giant aimed to decarbonise its electricity supply by 2030 and wanted to electrify its vast Pilbara iron ore diesel truck and rail operations. But the requirement for bulk electric haulage was on a scale that’s not available in today's market, she said. Iron ore miners were in talks with mining equipment and battery suppliers XCMG, BYD and CATL “to understand and test particularly what China has to offer” as well as working with Chinese steelmakers on decarbonising their plants.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen will tell the summit on Thursday that there is a lot more to do, including countering those who dispute that a well regulated, rigorously assessed, highly professional carbon trading system should play any role in our drive towards net zero. The development of new methods remains a priority and he will release exposure drafts of the new sequestration and emissions avoidance savanna fire management method. A new method for landfill gas will be made by the end of this year, addressing concerns about baselines that were raised in the Chubb Review, and his department is working closely with stakeholders on the new Integrated Farm and Land Management method.

Why China is still building new coal - and when it might stop. (Carbon Brief)


Regulation

Rewiring Australia warned against curtailing energy independence with new road user taxes for EVs. The federal government is reportedly fast-tracking plans for a road-user charge and the popular Fringe Benefit Tax (FBT) exemption that allows thousands of Australians to access an EV through their employer is also on the chopping block.

“Talking about road user taxes right now is premature. Now is not the time to pump the brakes on EVs. They’ll slash our national petrol bill and transform our energy system, storing over five times the energy of Snowy Hydro. The faster we add them to our roads, the more energy we can use from cheap, clean renewables, helping us reduce our reliance on oil imports, and retire Australia’s costly, ageing coal fleet sooner.”
Francis Vierboom
Rewiring Australia CEO

Technology

Californian gas and electricity utility PG&E will have 10 “flex connect” sites online by the end of the year in a pilot program for grid connections that can be flexible during peak periods. Most of the planned projects are EV chargers for public and commercial fleets, as well as on-grid batteries participating in the wholesale market. (Latitude Media)

Expecting oil and gas to play a key role in the world's energy mix for decades to come, consultancy Wood McKenzie released new AI-driven tools for focusing investment on resources with the most robust economics and lowest carbon footprints. This could support a fundamental shift in how upstream companies look at asset portfolios, Senior Vice President and Head of Upstream Research at Wood Mackenzie Craig McMahon said.


Climate

AGL also released a Climate Transition Action Plan (CTAP), which will be put to a shareholder vote at the company’s AGM on October 3, including:

  • A new Scope 3 target for a 60% reduction by the end of FY35 based on the FY19 baseline, and ceasing operation of Loy Yang Mine by the end of FY35
  • Coal plant closures: Bayswater by 2033 (during FY34) and Loy Yang A by the end of FY35
  • Interim renewables and firming target for FY30 has been increased from 5GW to 6GW (with at least 3GW of grid-scale batteries).
“As Australia’s largest electricity generator, AGL should be driving forwards the buildout of bulk renewable power. We have not seen a real increase in ambition in this climate plan - the 2035 target of a modest 12GW remains unchanged, with just an incremental increase of 1GW in the interim target by 2030, which is really just a commitment to build some of it sooner.”
Brynn O’Brien
ACCR Executive Director

Research

A report from Energy Networks Australia (ENA) and consultancy Blunomy suggests biomethane could meet up to 96% of current East Coast gas demand by tapping into existing waste. The first 50PJ of biomethane could be delivered at $10–27/GJ, with government support and improved recovery technology needed for costs to fall further. Expanding the Hydrogen Headstart Program and the Hydrogen Tax Credit Incentive Scheme to include biomethane would immediately create a supportive investment environment.

“Biomethane should be included in policies and schemes that support the decarbonisation of Australian Industry. It is already successfully being used in parts of the country including NSW where the Malabar waste facility generates enough renewable gas for more than 6000 homes.”
Dominique van den Berg
ENA Chief Executive

Researchers from Monash University have developed scalable technology that turns fly ash waste from coal-fired power stations into a rich source of all 17 rare earth elements essential for tech like wind turbines and electric vehicles. Their new process enables more than 90% of the critical minerals contained in fly ash waste to be recovered.

What's On

August 13-14
2025 Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit

Victoria’s Minister for Climate Action, Energy and Resources Lily D’Ambrosio, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Carbon Market Institute Chair Dr Kerry Schott, Co-Founder and CEO of CORE Markets Chris Halliwell, Investor Group on Climate Change CEO Rebecca Mikula-Wright and BHP Australia President Geraldine Slattery will speak at this event in Melbourne.


August 14
California Energy Commission DSGS Workshop

The California Energy Commission will hold an online workshop, Staff’s Analysis of the Demand Side Grid Support (DSGS) Program Performance in 2024, at 1:30-4pm local time.


August 14-15
First Nations Clean Energy Symposium

Government, industry, academics and regulators will join over 200 First Nations leaders from around Australia at this event on Kabi Kabi country (Sunshine Coast).


August 18
National Press Club

Productivity Commission Chair Danielle Wood will speak on the “Growth imperative: How to fix our productivity problem” at this event in Canberra.


August 26-27
Australian Renewable Heat Conference

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, ARENA investment manager Peter Haenke, and AGL sustainability expert Brendan Weinert will speak at this event in Sydney.


August 26-28
2025 New Zealand Wind Energy Summit

NZ Minister of Energy Simon Watts, Secretary-General of the World Wind Energy Association Stefan Gsänger, Global Wind Energy Council CEO Ben Backwell, Commerce Commission Chair Dr John Small, and Transpower Executive General Manager - Future Grid John Clarke headline this event in Wellington, NZ.


September 1-3
Farming Forever National Summit

Farmers for Climate Action CEO Natalie Collard, Rewiring Aeteroa CEO Mike Casey, NSW EnergyCo Chair Paul Binsted, ANU Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions Professor Mark Howden and NAB Chief Climate Officer Jacqui Fox will speak at this Farmers for Climate Action event in Canberra.


September 2
Bias in action

ANU Institute for Infrastructure in Society Director Sara Bice, CEO of The Energy Charter Sabiene Heindl, Director of Partnerships and Engagement at Energy Estate Rosie King, and Head of Communications and Stakeholder Engagement at Ark Energy Melissa Pisani will speak at this renewable energy engagement webinar.


September 2-4
14th World Chambers Congress

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, CEFC Chair Steven Skala and Yurringa Energy CEO Arron Wood are among the speakers at this Melbourne event.


September 16
"The Price of Power: The Future of Australia's Energy Sector"

Bluescope Chief Executive, Climate Change and Sustainability Deborah Caudle, Alinta Energy CEO Jeff Dimery, AGL CEO Damien Nicks and Australian Energy Council CEO Louisa Kinnear will speak at this American Chamber of Commerce event in Melbourne, with R. Blair Thomas, CEO of US energy investment firm EIG speaking via Zoom.


RESULTS SEASON

Origin Energy
August 14
Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) will release FY25 results to the market and host a webcast.

Ampol
August 18
Petroleum refiner and fuel distributor Ampol (ASX: ALD) will announce first-half results.

Woodside Energy
August 19
Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) CEO Meg O’Neill and CFO Graham Tiver will release half-year results and brief investors.

Santos
August 20
Santos (ASX: STO) will release half-year results.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

Read more from The Energy

Hey Reader, in today's edition: Please, no more reviews Gas review homework due Eraring hangs on NEM review Scope for ministerial delay The Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council will meet on Friday with electricity and gas market reviews in the pipeline as cover for delaying key decisions. Expert view “While the ministers talk system security, a key to unlocking it lies with governments ensuring distribution and transmission networks publish network capacity and operations data to...

Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy's weekly data newsletter. This week we take a closer look at new data centre forecasts and the energy demand scenarios for Sydney vs Melbourne. A one horse race As Australia’s most mature data centre market, Sydney is now at the stage where network constraints are preventing new energy connections in inner and Western Sydney. Ratings agency Moody’s last week said the networks, which usually connect on a “first-come, first-served” basis, were moving toward...

Hey Reader, in today's edition: Queensland's transition skills problem NSW dials up ambition Outlook is peaky Queensland energy brain drain runs deep At least eight senior executives have left senior roles in the Queensland departments of energy and Treasury, and state-owned energy businesses, since the Liberal National Party government of Premier David Crisafulli was elected last October. The departures come as the state government seeks a new energy roadmap based on a $1.4 billion extension...