Digging into the counter-factual


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Without mining...
  • PPAs are evolving
  • Energy Made Easy, at a price

Digging into the counter-factual

A three-day mining industry bash in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia, kicked off with a counter-narrative on the energy transition – by a guest “keynote” panel, not the battery minerals delegates hellbent on digging up what the world needs.

Expert view

“The economics of the New Energy World basically usurp, in many respects, the thesis that Trump is playing through about 'drill baby drill'. The cost base is deflating much faster than Western analysts would currently assume, and that's motivating demand for the raw materials to supply cheaper batteries and cheaper solar installations, which, by the way, now happen to coexist. If you're building a large solar farm it's highly unlikely you wouldn't be putting in a battery. That's what's happening at grid scale but you could argue that's equally happening at a micro scale ... because the economics are starting to become compelling. If you've got the capital, you're almost crazy now not to put in a battery.

"Today's [lithium] market conditions are pretty extreme. I think we've probably seen the bottom in the market, because demand conditions are re-accelerating. If you're going to build a new supply chain like what's required for North America or for Europe, you need big cost-competitive mines that are going to be around for decades to underwrite the investment that's needed downstream. That's really the part we see ourselves playing, not just being another supplier to China.”

Ken Brinsden
CEO, Patriot Battery Metals

Making markets

Engie Australia’s first virtual storage agreement signed with AGL this week is the latest in a growing list of more flexible commercial models emerging amid the energy transition. The five-year, derivatives-only agreement will kick off in 2027, and Engie says it will allow it to emulate the operational flexibility of a two-hour battery.

In the latest of our expert explainers, Nicholas Gohdes details how offtake agreements and PPAs work and how they’ve changed to adapt to our evolving energy market.

Expert view

“Aggregated PPAs, storage-linked contracts, and shorter-duration deals are all gaining traction.

On the supply side, project developers are facing a more challenging operating environment. Delays in connection approvals, escalating capital costs, and evolving market design are increasing the complexity of project delivery. These factors have heightened the importance of due diligence for prospective counterparties, many of whom are now prioritising project maturity, financial robustness, and credible delivery timelines in their selection processes.

At the same time, the private sector must increasingly compete with federal and state governments for long-term purchases of renewable energy.”

Nicholas Gohdes
Industry Research Fellow, Griffith University Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research

Energy Made Easy, at a price

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) responded to a suggestion it move quickly to show VPP offers on the Energy Made Easy website by saying "Additional investment by Government would enable Energy Made Easy to respond to the rapidly changing market”.

The regulator was slated for $16.6 million of additional funding over four years in the 2024 Budget “to help households get onto a better plan by sustaining regulatory activities, upgrading data and digital systems to reduce regulatory burden and cost, and delivering better outcomes for consumers through the Energy Made Easy website”. In 2018 it received $8 million of government funding for a major upgrade of Energy Made Easy that was delivered in 2020.

Catch Up

Capital

Asset manager HMC Capital (ASX: HMC) said it had finalised its acquisition of Neoen Australia’s Victorian assets in a market update also confirming it continues to seek new investors in its business. Neoen sold the assets to HMC for $950 million last year, part of a competition regulator condition to allow Brookfield's acquisition of a majority stake in Neoen.

EnergyAustralia said it was investing in distributed energy solutions, such as household battery products and community batteries, as it reported a slight decline in half-year net profit to $61 million. The half saw several planned generation outages as part of maintenance on all four generation units at its Yallourn coal-fired power station, and a turbine upgrade at Tallawarra A power station.


Projects

Fresh off the first stage of commissioning of the NSW Government’s Waratah Super Battery Project, Transgrid launched a $16 million Systems Integrity Protection Scheme (SIPS) control system to monitor 36 transmission lines across NSW in real time. Transgrid said the system could automatically detect potential line overloads and signal the Waratah Super Battery to discharge stored energy into the network, while at the same time signalling hydro, wind and solar-paired generators in the New England and Snowy regions to reduce output to balance supply across the grid.

Takeover target Santos signed an MOU with Engie for domestic gas supply from the controversial Narribri gas project. Under the proposal Santos would supply Engie with up to 20 PJ per year of natural gas from Narrabri for 10+ years from the commencement of operations. Santos is yet to make a final investment decision on the project, and under an approval condition by the Native Title Tribunal the gas must be used solely for domestic supply.

Oil major BP said it had made its largest global oil and gas discovery in 25 years in Brazil's Santos basin. Analysts said the find may see BP's upstream portfolio longevity extending well into the 2030s/40s. (Reuters)

QPM Energy (ASX: QPM) said it had successfully returned the Townsville Power Station to service after a major overhaul. The group expected to further increase production from its Moranbah Gas Project, with the energy markets team now able to optimise dispatch of the TPS to maximise electricity revenues using Moranbah gas supply and gas stored in the North Queensland Gas Pipeline.


Policy

The Greens threw their support behind an ACTU proposal to scrap the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax and instead levy a 25% tax on coal and gas export revenue. Analysis by The Australia Institute found the tax would raise around $12.5 billion annually. Australia Institute executive director Richard Denniss said “This is precisely the sort of big, bold policy the productivity roundtable should be looking at”.


Regulation

The Australian Energy Regulator invited submissions on a discussion paper kicking off the 2026 Rate of Return Instrument (RORI) review that determines a large portion of distribution network revenue. The AER is required to make a RORI every four years, and said for this period it would focus on two of the the most significant and contested issues in the 2022 review: equity beta and the potential use of a weighted trailing average for the return on debt. Submissions are due November 28.


Technology

Clean-tech startup Endua secured $4.88 million through the Industry Growth Program to help further develop its hydrogen electrolyser technology. The company’s modular electrolyser is designed for on-site hydrogen production at point of use, helping organisations to decarbonise without having to rely on hydrogen being transported.

Google signed two new demand response-based utility agreements with Indiana Michigan Power (I&M) and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The tech giant said this was the first time it had delivered grid flexibility by targeting machine learning workloads. Previous response capabilities involved shifting non-urgent compute tasks — like processing a YouTube video — during specific periods when the grid was strained.


Climate

Climate scientist and energy systems analyst Zeke Hausfather explained how the US Department of Energy and EPA used and misused his research to support a preconceived narrative that minimises the risk of climate change. (The Climate Brink)

“There will be more on both the EPA proposed rule and the DOE’s report in the coming weeks; it takes time to assemble a group of experts broad enough to address the veritable Gish Gallop of claims in the 151-page DOE report (and the 302 page EPA proposed rule). But the broader climate science community is working on a number of efforts to provide a rebuttal.”

People

China’s biggest solar firms shed nearly one-third of their workforces last year, company filings showed, as they grappled with overcapacity and tepid demand. (Reuters)


Random

Thieves in the US have been stealing copper wire from streetlights, forcing city authorities to move to solar powered lights. (Canary Media)

What's On

August 4-6
Diggers & Dealers Mining Conference

Pilbara Minerals CEO Dale Henderson, Patriot Battery Minerals CEO Ken Brinsden, Arafura Rare Earths CEO Darryl Cuzzubbo, Boss Energy CEO Duncan Craib, and Australian Vanadium CEO Graham Arvidson are among the lineup at this three-day event in Kalgoorlie, WA.


August 6
The NEM review - what it's shaping up to mean

NEM review Chair Tim Nelson, Clean Energy Investor Group Head of Policy and Advocacy Marilyne Crestias and Baringa's Peter Sherry will speak at this webinar moderated by The Energy's Advisory Board Chair Simon Corbell.


August 7-8
2025 ACCC/AER Regulatory Conference

Former chair of UK energy regulator Ofgem Professor Martin Cave, AEMC Commissioner Sally McMahon, Treasury Assistant Secretary - Competition Taskforce Anna Barker, Essential Services Commission Chair Gerard Brody, and Marinus Link Chair Sandra Gamble are among the speakers at this event in Brisbane.


August 11
RE-Alliance Briefing for Industry and Government

Bridget Ryan, author of the RE-Alliance report Retirement age renewables – delivering for Australian communities, will discuss required management responses at this online event.


August 13-14
2025 Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit

Victoria’s Minister for Climate Action, Energy and Resources Lily D’Ambrosio, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Carbon Market Institute Chair Dr Kerry Schott, Co-Founder and CEO of CORE Markets Chris Halliwell, Investor Group on Climate Change CEO Rebecca Mikula-Wright and BHP Australia President Geraldine Slattery will speak at this event in Melbourne.


August 14-15
First Nations Clean Energy Symposium

Government, industry, academics and regulators will join over 200 First Nations leaders from around Australia at this event on Kabi Kabi country (Sunshine Coast).


August 18
National Press Club

Productivity Commission Chair Danielle Wood will speak on the “Growth imperative: How to fix our productivity problem” at this event in Canberra.


August 26-27
Australian Renewable Heat Conference

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, ARENA investment manager Peter Haenke, and AGL sustainability expert Brendan Weinert will speak at this event in Sydney.


August 26-28
2025 New Zealand Wind Energy Summit

NZ Minister of Energy Simon Watts, Secretary-General of the World Wind Energy Association Stefan Gsänger, Global Wind Energy Council CEO Ben Backwell, Commerce Commission Chair Dr John Small, and Transpower Executive General Manager - Future Grid John Clarke headline this event in Wellington, NZ.


September 1-3
Farming Forever National Summit

Farmers for Climate Action CEO Natalie Collard, Rewiring Aeteroa CEO Mike Casey, NSW EnergyCo Chair Paul Binsted, ANU Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions Professor Mark Howden and NAB Chief Climate Officer Jacqui Fox will speak at this Farmers for Climate Action event in Canberra.


RESULTS SEASON

AGL Energy
August 13
AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) CEO Damien Nicks and CFO Gary Brown will release FY25 results and host a webcast.

Origin Energy
August 14
Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) will release FY25 results to the market and host a webcast.

Ampol
August 18
Petroleum refiner and fuel distributor Ampol (ASX: ALD) will announce first-half results.

Woodside Energy
August 19
Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) CEO Meg O’Neill and CFO Graham Tiver will release half-year results and brief investors.

Santos
August 20
Santos (ASX: STO) will release half-year results.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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