Unprecedented times (for bills)

When the federal government announced its Energy Price Relief Plan in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine it said the relief would be “responsible, targeted and temporary”, providing all Australians with “a buffer in unprecedented times”.

Almost three years on, that temporary relief is winding down, as is matched relief from the states, some of which went above and beyond the federal scheme.

Early signs are that removing this mask of price rises, much of which was not in fact down to the Ukraine war, is going to shock. As Grattan Institute energy expert Tony Wood aptly puts it: “Sugar hits from governments are nice when they are delivered but go sour later.”

The case of Queensland

This July, the Queensland government ended its generous Cost of Living Rebate that amounted to $1000 off energy bills for all households (on top of $300 from the federal government).

Looking at the average annual electricity bill for Queenslanders pre and post the Ukraine invasion (courtesy of the very helpful St Vincent de Paul Society Tariff Tracking project), it’s clear just how much the rebate would have done to hide price rises.

In 2024-25 electricity bill support was budgeted by the state at $2.26 billion. This is alongside the $6.8 billion spent by the feds in bill relief in the last three years. Independent Senator David Pocock has pointed out this could have been spent on electrification and energy efficiency to permanently bring down prices for households.

The fallout

This week, Queensland’s Energy and Water Ombudsman reported spikes in complaints related to energy bills. It closed a total of 2,580 cases in the July to September quarter, an increase of 18.3% compared to the previous quarter.

Hardship-related complaints have also increased, with 89 complaints closed in the past six months — a 78% rise compared to the previous period.

And it could get worse, given any bill shock related to summer cooling may not be reflected in complaints data until early 2026.

Uncomfortable numbers

An audit of the government’s design of the Energy Price Relief Plan sheds light on why the politicians were so quick to move.

It points out that in October 2022 the Australian Energy Regulator’s (AER) estimate for the Default Market Offer 2023–24 was that retail electricity prices would increase by between 41-51% for residential customers compared to the previous year.

Yet in May 2024 the AER’s final determination for DMO 2023–24 showed an increase of between 20.5% and 24.9%.

When Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the Plan he said the average family would be $230 worse off in the year ahead if action wasn’t taken.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) argues the government failed to address the underlying issues pushing prices up.

Since 2022, IEEFA has been comparing the profits of regulated electricity networks against the AER’s ‘allowed’ rate of return, finding that networks consistently exceed these allowances by very large margins.

The AER is yet to release its electricity network performance report (where the IEEFA analysis is drawn from) for 2025.

Start with the basics

In the meantime, as bill relief continues for people in energy hardship, there is regulatory work underway to help increase the number of consumers accessing concessions they are eligible for.

Research by the Melbourne Institute found just under 62% of concession card holders (around a third of which experience energy hardship) had not applied energy concessions to their energy bill, mainly due to lack of awareness and lack of knowledge of energy concessions.

From July next year, retailers will be required to inform consumers of relevant schemes either at sign up or when they switch.

Energy mix

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With thanks to OnlyFacts

NEM Renewables Breakdown

Last week (21 Oct - 27 Oct) vs. same week in 2024:

• Renewables: 48.2% (+1.6%)
• Fossils: 51.8%

SWIS Renewables Breakdown

Last week (20 Oct - 26 Oct) vs. same week in 2024:

• Renewables: 49.0% (+0.7%)
• Fossils: 51.0%

Emissions Intensity (NEM & SWIS)
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This month so far vs. Oct 2024

• NEM: 463.3 kg CO₂e/MWh so far this month (-7.3%)
• SWIS: 389.1 kg CO₂e/MWh so far this month (-5.0%)