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The Energy

Investment is the difference between 1.5 and 2°C

Published about 19 hours ago • 8 min read

Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • How we're tracking on climate goals
  • EPBC watch
  • Home battery orchestration optional?

Energy investment for sub 2°C

As climate policymakers prepare to meet in Belém, Brazil for the UN Climate Change Conference next month, some people have prematurely concluded that the 1.5°C goal is out of reach, write climate economics and policy experts Rebecca Burdon, Anita Talberg and Karla Spiller.

They’ve crunched the numbers on what the so-far announced 2035 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and longer-term net-zero targets will mean for warming, and while 1.9°C is looking increasingly likely, extending renewable energy, energy efficiency and methane emission reduction targets to 2035 could make a big difference.

Expert view

“As nations meet in Belém, the focus will be on aligning trade and finance to deliver conditional NDCs and establishing a clear 2035 roadmap with measurable energy-transition milestones.

For Australia, this matters: domestically, it will shape the competitiveness of clean energy, green exports, and carbon markets; internationally, it can support Australia to become a transition finance hub, mobilising capital to support regional NDCs.

The 2035 targets are a critical inflection point. They confirm that the transition is accelerating, but success depends on closing the finance gap.”

Rebecca Burdon
CEO, Climate Resource

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EPBC watch: No to hiving off the tricky bits

Environment Minister Murray Watt dismissed the Opposition’s call to split the overdue environmental law reform package into two bills and confirmed Australia’s first national environment protection authority won’t hold a veto power over projects.

In a letter to Prime Minister Antony Albanese, Coalition Leader Sussan Ley proposed prioritising measures to streamline approvals, separating them from the “broader, more contentious environmental elements of the legislation” to allow Parliament to make immediate progress on unlocking investment and growth.

“We can't split the bill. We need to do both. And we need to get on with it,” Watt told reporters in Canberra. “Graeme Samuel himself said when he delivered his (Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act) report that we need to do both. It's not about cherry picking one or the other. You need to do both and that's how you get the gains for the environment and for business.”

“It's been described as the single greatest impediment to the green energy transition. But it's not just the green energy transition, it's projects, major projects right across our economy that require EPBC reform right now …We need the parties of government to come together and pass this legislation. That is the way we can go about delivering the longevity these reforms require."
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Bran Black​
Business Council of Australia (BCA) CEO

Watt said the “integrated package” will give business clarity about the types of applications they can put in and expect to have approved.

Most of the draft bill has been shared with the Coalition, the Greens and stakeholders, including a regulatory model that gives the new watchdog “a high degree of independence” on environmental audits, compliance and enforcement, but retains project decision-making powers for the Minister, he said.

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Battery orchestration optional?

How much distributed energy resources can deliver for the grid and consumers could be shifted by super-sized batteries, energy economist Paul Simshauser says.

Analysis from Green Energy Markets recently showed the average home system size is getting bigger, with the seven-day moving average close to 25kWh, compared to average household consumption of 12kWh per day.

Speaking at The Energy’s webinar on the real costs of the transition, Simshauser said: “Initially I used to worry about the lack of coordination of batteries and think if there's taxpayer money going in, there's a reasonable case to say there should be some level of dispatchability or control.”

“But at the same time, I’ve also noticed that the size of some of those batteries is actually getting very big, and that makes me think that they'll be a lot more effective than I had probably thought they would have been.

Simshauser said this had addressed his earlier fear that small batteries “would be filled up by 10:00AM and miss that all-important period that we all worry about in terms of system stability”.

Aurecon managing director of energy Paul Gleeson agreed.

“Even if people don't join a VPP, we will still see some of the benefits in terms of what happens to that duck curve, and how much of that actually hits the wholesale market. The batteries just have to be soaking that up, even if we can't orchestrate them all.
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“What they do in the evening peak, though, that is more reliant on the VPP or some other form of orchestration to actually get them to work in a way that minimises total system cost for every household.”

Meanwhile, Simshauser, who will soon finish up at Queensland transmission company Powerlink (before taking up the CEO gig at Iberdrola Australia), had this to say when asked to weigh in on The Energy’s webinar poll on what has been adding the most cost to the energy transition.

“I was tortured by all of them! But supply chain costs jumped out, and planning approvals. Time adds cost to projects too, which obviously doesn't help, so maybe that combination.”

Here’s what the audience thought.

Catch Up

Capital

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United States President Donald Trump signed deals on critical minerals with Thailand and Malaysia at the ASEAN Summit to further counteract China’s export controls.

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) launched a trial of battery-swap electric haul truck technology at the world’s fourth-largest copper mine, Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia. Battery swapping technology allows the battery of an electric mining truck to be replaced at a battery swap station in less than seven minutes, without the need to charge the vehicle at a fixed charging facility. “The launch of this trial with SPIC Qiyuan is an important milestone, harnessing China’s widely used and leading battery swap technology in a partnership that supports Rio Tinto’s drive to accelerate low-carbon innovation,” General Manager, Global Equipment and Diesel Transition, Ben Woffenden said. Meanwhile an internal investigation into allegations of corruption and unethical conduct at its copper operations in Mongolia continues.

Takeover target Larvotto Resources (ASX: LRV) rejected a $723 million scrip bid, saying the offer does not properly value the company’s gold and antimony mine in NSW. Antimony, used in energy storage for its heat retardant qualities as well as vital for defence equipment, is listed as a “critical mineral” in many nations including the US. (AFR)

Projects

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Wind generation in South Australia is set to increase by 20% through the inauguration of Neoen’s Goyder South wind farm. Located near Burra on the lands of the Ngadjuri Nation, and built across two stages, the state’s largest wind farm is expected to generate 1.5TWh a year. Three power purchase agreements (PPAs) underpin the asset, including a 14-year contract with the ACT Government, which is targeting net zero by 2045. (Energy Magazine)

The number of grid-scale wind and solar projects reaching a final investment decision is at its lowest level in nearly a decade, despite a major push from governments to speed up the pace of the rollout. Figures published by the Clean Energy Regulator in October show that not a single large-scale clean energy project reached financial closure in the third quarter of 2025. (AFR)

Policy

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Net-zero reviewer Nationals Senator Matt Canavan said there was “great unity” at Monday’s party room meeting and slammed the BCA for urging the Coalition to retain the net zero pledge.

The lower house kept the fire burning with 20 minutes of debate on Barnaby Joyce’s self-explanatory Repeal Net Zero Bill.

Crossbenchers are calling for a mining rent tax to guarantee Australian taxpayers a “fair cut” of a potential critical minerals boom. Quizzed by new independent MP Nicolette Boele during Question Time, acting PM Richard Marles didn’t answer the question, and instead talked up the Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive and the Critical Minerals Facility.

Regulation

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The ACCC granted authorisation for the South Australian Chamber of Mines and Energy and participating members to form a joint electricity buying group, to pool their electricity demand, conduct a joint tender, and individually enter into a supply agreement. Given the current state of play and ongoing uncertainty of the electricity market in South Australia, and across the NEM more broadly, market volatility and the high cost of electricity was expected to continue for the foreseeable future, the industry group said.

Technology

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Energy tech startup SolarCloud has developed a platform that uses a sharing-economy model to redistribute underused rooftop solar to renters, apartment dwellers and others who’ve been missing out on the benefits of cheaper, cleaner energy. Customers can invest in one panel at a time, with no roof required, and it’s portable if you move house, CEO and Founder John Kennedy said. Following two years of pilot testing and the completion of its regulatory licensing, users can purchase virtual panels hosted on commercial rooftops, with generation credits applied directly to their electricity bill.

Climate

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The era of “peak climate policy” may already have passed in many jurisdictions, and Australia may not be an exception. (The Mandarin)

People

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Clenergy announced the appointment of Haydn Fletcher as General Manager, Clenergy Australia, and Samir Jacob as Global Marketing Director.

Research

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After reviewing 318 existing research papers on the use of artificial intelligence in energy, Canadian researchers concluded AI can significantly advance the capabilities of smart grids, improving real-time decision-making and adaptive fault detection. But they warn AI is an energy intensive tool so its use should ensure it doesn’t contradict the clean energy goals it aims to serve. (Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews)

Random

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Australian Ukrainians accused the Albanese government of allowing Russian-sourced “blood oil” into Australia. The latest to arrive was allegedly the cargo ship Proteus Stephanie which docked at Port Botany in Sydney on Sunday and is thought to be carrying an estimated 58,000 tonnes of fuel derived from Russian crude, worth an estimated $12.5 million in revenue for Moscow, The Nightly reported.

What's On

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October 29-30​
All Energy Australia

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, incoming Clean Energy Council CEO Jackie Trad and Pacific Green CEO Joel Alexander are among the speakers at this year’s All Energy event in Melbourne.

October 30​
National Press Club

Environment Minister Murray Watt will address the National Press Club on “Environmental law reform – it’s now or never” at this Canberra event.

October 31​
Fortescue AGM

Fortescue (ASX: FMG) Founder and Executive Chair Andrew Forrest will update shareholders at the annual general meeting in Perth.

November 5​
WA Energy Outlook

Rebecca Brown, Director General of WA’s Department of Energy and Economic Diversification, Horizon Power EGM Future Energy Vi Garrood, and EDL CEO James Harman are among the speakers at this CEDA event in Perth.

November 5​
National Press Club

Outgoing ASIC Chair Joe Longo will address the National Press Club on “Open for opportunity: Taking charge of the future of our financial markets” at this Canberra event.

November 6​
ANU Solar Oration

Merryn York, who has led system design at AEMO, will speak at this Canberra event, following an opening statement by ACT Energy Minister Suzanne Orr.

November 12​
National Press Club

Japan’s Ambassador to Australia Kazuhiro Suzuki will address the National Press Club on "Girt by sea and in the same boat: 50 years of Japan-Australia relations and beyond” at this Canberra event.

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The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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