Under the hood at energy upstart PolarBlue


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Can PolarBlue revive hydrogen?
  • Fixing the east coast gas mess
  • Power bill rebates to be switched off

How PolarBlue plans to upend energy

A month ago mysterious energy upstart PolarBlue took out a wraparound advertisement in the AFR Weekend claiming to be the answer to the aluminium industry’s prayers for “Clean, reliable, zero-emission energy that costs less than fossil fuels, renewables and nuclear”. But it gave no more details.

Today, The Energy’s Ben Potter details what’s behind the company's bold claims, which directly challenge conventional views that wind power has become unaffordable, cheap low carbon hydrogen is a mirage, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have irretrievably lost the race to battery electric vehicles.

Fixing the east coast gas mess

The Gas Market Review could result in a simple and effective export licence system that is more likely to reduce prices quickly or a more complex option that is less likely to bring prices down but would increase supply.

An export licensing framework that requires all east coast exporters to supply the domestic market is clearly the better option, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

A more complex industry-wide framework requiring all gas producers to meet domestic supply obligations is more likely to incentivise development of new gas reserves in the southern states, where the production costs are likely to be higher than Queensland’s.

“This could lead to a situation where more expensive new gas is supplied domestically while cheaper Queensland gas is exported,” IEEFA’s lead analyst Josh Runciman warns.

Further, “bulk buying” to cut gas costs for manufacturers may reward the gas companies that created market issues in the first place, he says, and leave the federal government on the hook for subsidies – permanently.

Expert view

“On price, Queensland gas producers generally hold relatively low-cost reserves, with some exceptions, and diverting this gas to the domestic market is likely to be cheaper than bringing on expensive new gas fields. Energy Edge modelling suggests that prices could be more than $2 per gigajoule lower if LNG exporters supplied an additional 30PJ domestically. However, the impact on pricing will ultimately depend on the behaviour of LNG exporters, and an export licensing mechanism should include clauses to regulate selling practices and contracting behaviour.”

Josh Runciman
Lead Analyst, Australian Gas, IEEFA

Catch Up

Capital

Singapore’s Sembcorp (SGX: U96) said discussions to acquire Alinta Energy from Hong Kong-based Chow Tai Fook Enterprises are “still ongoing” after speculation of a deal as soon as this week. If completed, Alinta would give Sembcorp a major retail and generation foothold in Australia, immediate scale in a market that is retiring coal plants and accelerating the renewables build‑out, and a heavy decarbonisation challenge, given Loy Yang B’s footprint and Australia’s climate-related compliance requirements. (Capital Brief) (Bloomberg) (Ts2)

WA-based Frontier Energy (ASX: FHE) went on a trading halt to complete a $10 million capital raising, and signalled a debt raising in 2026. Stage One of Frontier’s Waroona Renewable Energy Project, comprising a 120MW solar farm with 81.5MW battery storage, is “locked and loaded” with revenue certainty secured, all connections and approvals in place, and a rising power price and growing supply gap, CEO Adam Kiley told an investor webinar.


Projects

The Queensland government allocated consultancy Coreo more than $1.5 million to work with coal producers in the Bowen Basin to study how to recover minerals such as rare earths and vanadium from mine waste. Coreo CEO Ashleigh Morris said the funding strengthened the Bowen Basin Circularity program. “By focusing on critical minerals in coal tailings, and the potential to extract them alongside other valuable components, we are targeting full value from the full volume of tailings,” she said. “This advances whole-of-system resource recovery and positions Queensland to lead in circular resource innovation.”


Policy

With WA getting out of coal-fired electricity generation faster than any other state, supported by new laws, the State Development Bill 2025 has been described by lawyersGilbert+Tobin as a “net positive” for WA’s energy transition and broader investment agenda.

Labor’s tax cuts, not another round of energy rebates, are the best way to provide cost-of-living relief, Treasurer Jim Chalmers told reporters after Cabinet made the “difficult” call ahead of next week's budget update. Initially funded for just one year, the bill relief distributed via energy retailers was extended as cost-of-living pressures remained acute. “There have been three rounds of electricity bill rebates, and there won't be a fourth,” he said, confirming the measure would end on December 31. (The Australian) (Sky News) (ABC) (Capital Brief)


Regulation

Financial ties between oil and gas companies, educational and cultural institutions are igniting concern, with Australian students learning about ocean acidification with no mention of fossil fuels and researching carbon capture using museum classroom materials adorned with company branding, AAP reported, citing a Comms Declare investigation. The charity’s report calls for national standards to prevent fossil fuel companies from influencing climate or environmental education, aligning with emerging international guidelines such as the UK’s restrictions on environmentally harmful sponsorships.


Climate

Greenpeace Australia Pacific warned the federal government against subsidising gas for industrial users, saying it should instead be supporting heavy industry to decarbonise. Greenpeace said the intervention would be at odds with Australia’s commitment to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, including under the Glasgow Climate Pact and the Belém Declaration on the transition away from fossil fuels inked in Brazil less than three weeks ago.

Rio Tinto said it would spend between $US1 billion and $US2 billion on decarbonisation projects in the nine years to 2030, down from the original budget of $US7.5 billion. Meanwhile BHP’s decided to slash decarbonisation spending from $US4 billion to just $US500 million. The cuts have been criticised by Australian Conservation Foundation climate policy advisor Annika Reynolds as a “disappointing, regressive decision”. (AFR)


People

Ecologist Gavin Thomas joined biodiversity and heritage consultancy Niche as Ecology Practice Leader for bird and bat studies, to assist wind developers with project impact.

Dr Ian Oppermann has been appointed as a Commissioner at the ACCC while Anna Brakey has been reappointed for a 5-year term.

HSBC has elevated Samantha Iyer to head of sustainable finance and transition for Australia and New Zealand.


Research

Senior Lecturer Rohan Best, Department of Economics, Macquarie University, says the federal government is subsidising unnecessarily large home batteries with “massive” uptake rates. At this pace, the budget allocation of $2.3 billion might run out in 2026, rather than 2030 as originally planned, and if extended could blow out to around $10 billion. (The Conversation)

Japan's Kanazawa University has begun long-term outdoor testing of perovskite solar cells in collaboration with Toshiba. The project will involve installing tandem perovskite solar cells equipped with lead-stabilization technology onto modules for outdoor evaluation at the university's Kakuma campus. (PV Magazine)


Random

“Barnaby Joyce’s decision to join One Nation is disappointing,” Nationals Leader David Littleproud said in a statement. “Barnaby has chosen to turn his back on The Nationals and on his electorate and instead join a party of protest, which is never able to achieve anything other than headlines.”

What's On

December 9, Sydney and December 11, Melbourne
Energy Tetris

The Energy’s first live event will feature Quinbrook CEO Brian Restall, Energy Security Corporation CEO Paul Peters, Southerly Ten Chief Development Officer Erin Coldham, Hydro Tasmania Chairman Richard Bolt, Westwind Managing Director Tobias Geiger, Atmos Renewables GM of Development Allison Hawke, RWE Renewables APAC Head of Regulatory Affairs Matthew Dickie, ASL GM System Planning & Financial Markets, Melanie Koerner, UNSW Associate Professor Iain MacGill and Senior Research Associate Dylan McConnell and Energy Edge MD Josh Stabler.


December 15
AEMC Public Forum: The pricing review

The Australian Energy Market Commission will host an online forum on its draft recommendations for the pricing review.


December 17
AER Public Forum: AusNet Transmission Revenue Proposal 2027-32

The Australian Energy Regulator will host an online public forum for stakeholders to ask questions about AusNet's 2027-32 transmission revenue proposal.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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