Data centre futurecasting


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Data centres without coal
  • Big battery limits explained
  • Oil risk to global growth

Green data hubs or digital smelters?

AI expert and energy company executive Luis Gonzalez sees a future where energy equals intelligence, but if Australia is to be an AI hub without coal, our policy settings need to change.

Data centres in Australia could become “digital smelters” concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne pushing wholesale energy prices up by 26 per cent, or, if Australia gets it right, emerge as “managed green hubs” helping to moderate prices and keep Australia on track to net zero.

Expert view

“Data centres are a critical infrastructure business that doesn't understand it is critical infrastructure yet. They understand it because it keeps our planes in the air, it keeps our hospitals running, but they don't behave like critical infrastructure yet.

The obligation I have in the utility is to give a 25 year outlook of energy, and how I’m supposed to support that for an affordable price.

A data centre gets built in 18 months and they can pay back somewhere between three to five years. Which power plant here gets paid back in five years? And you see they haven't been incentivised to think like critical infrastructure. So that's the kind of thing we’ve got to change.

My advice would be joint planning. You cannot plan energy anymore without data and you cannot plan data without understanding energy.”

Luis F. Gonzalez
Chief Data & AI Office, AboitizPower

Explainer: How big can batteries get?

When the Waratah Super Battery is fully operational - and when remains to be seen given the catastrophic failure of one of its transformers - it will likely be Australia’s largest at 850MW.

A decade ago, a 100MWh battery was considered ambitious. Today, multi-megawatt-hour projects are moving from proposal to commissioning.

How big could they get? As engineers Yasir Arafat and Asma Aziz explain, chemistry is not the limiting factor. Safety risk management is.

Catch Up

Capital

Oil prices tipped over US$92 a barrel as Iraqi production was reported to have dropped by 70%. Global growth could slow if the disruption of energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz lasts more than a few weeks, ratings agency Moody’s warned, outlining baseline and ‘adverse’ scenarios in which Brent prices surge to around $80/barrel and suffer sustained prices of $100 or higher, respectively. Long periods of “significantly higher oil prices… would strain energy importing regions,” the report notes, adding that “high energy prices would raise consumer prices and production costs globally, eroding household purchasing power and weighing on investment” in a shift that could drive interest rates higher.

Meanwhile, petrol and diesel rationing is underway in Australia as fuel distributors assess inventories. (The Australian)

Three Australian clean energy startups will be able to access university testing facilities to validate their technologies after the launch of a localised version of CalTestBed, a California grant program that has helped startups in that state raise $623 million ($US438 million) in funding amidst a clean energy surge that has clean energy supplying two-thirds of the state’s power. The AusTestBed program – which is led by New Energy Nexus and EnergyLab with seed funding from Boundless Earth – will provide $50,000 to Australian startups Powerblocks, Adoxima, and Carbophite, which will have access to testbeds including the UNSW-University of Newcastle backed TRaCE and the University of Melbourne.

Provaris Energy (ASX: PV1) will further develop its hydrogen prototype tank development and liquid CO2 transport program thanks to secured firm commitments for $1.325 million. The funding is expected to help Provaris reach technical milestones for both programs around the middle of this year, and commercial milestones and licensing opportunities later this year. (Proactive)

The rapid change in global energy market dynamics reveals the “dangerously fragile” nature of global energy infrastructure, PitchBook has said in blaming “years of structural underinvestment across the oil & gas value chain”. Regardless of how the Iran conflict pans out, its new analysis notes, new investment will be needed in areas including upstream exploration and production, oilfield services, and midstream/downstream refining. PitchBook also flags natural gas as “a particularly durable investment thesis given ongoing liquefied natural gas infrastructure build-out and surging AI datacentre power demand.”


Projects

The Good Earth Green Hydrogen and Ammonia project will be one of the first large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia production facilities in NSW, the state government said. The joint venture between Australian company Sundown Pastoral and New Zealand company Hiringa Energy reached financial close last year and received $45.2 million from the NSW government. It will produce enough green hydrogen to create 4,500 tonnes of ammonia a year for use as fuel and fertiliser.


Regulation

Oil and gas major Santos is pushing to be able to leave old offshore infrastructure out in the ocean as long as it can prove “equal or better” environmental outcomes. Decommissioning is currently the responsibility of industry, with a bill in the order of tens of billions expected in coming decades. The Victorian government is currently inquiring into the scale and legal ownership structure of Victoria’s oil and gas infrastructure and its decommissioning. (The Australian) (Boiling Cold)


Policy

Australia and Canada will work together to progress the countries towards their net zero goals, with the governments signing a new Clean Energy Partnership that “reaffirms our dedication to the Paris Agreement”. The partnership – Australia’s twelfth such international clean energy deal – will focus on joint action in five key areas including trade, investment, standards and supply chains; grid modernisation and resilience; energy and hard-to-abate sectors; indigenous engagement; and climate change adaptation.

European Commission policymakers are exploring options to shore up the bloc’s energy firms and will present options to European Union (EU) leaders on March 19, with a range of short-term measures under consideration including changes to energy taxes, network charges and carbon costs. Governments are “underusing existing tools” for cutting company energy bills but must become more focused on encouraging reduction in consumption, authorities said in warning that EU producers can’t compete with Chinese and US rivals – even before the Iran conflict caused oil and gas prices to surge. (Reuters)


Climate

China has set a new five-year plan for cutting its carbon emissions, with the country targeting a 17% reduction by 2030. The new target will leave China short of its reduction targets under the Paris climate agreement, despite laying down a plan to replace 30 million metric tonnes of coal consumption with renewable energy over the next five years. China has invested furiously on solar PV and wind generation, which passed 1.8TW of total capacity last year and now account for nearly half of China’s total power generation capacity. (Eco-Business) (Carbon Brief)


People

Self-described “NEM nerd” Alex Leemon has started a new role as a commercial analyst at Atmos Renewables. Leemon has previously worked at PolarBlue, Gridcog, and Rheem Australia.

Energy technology platform Kaluza has elevated founder Stephen Fitzpatrick to the role of chief executive officer. Fitzpatrick, who assumes the role from Melissa Gander, is ramping up to steer the company through the rapid pivot towards AI as he works to embed the technology across the company’s engineering teams and operations.

What's On

March 9
Understanding the draft reliability arrangements in the ECGS

The Australian Energy Market Commission will hold a public forum to discuss draft determinations on the implementation of a reliability standard and related reliability tools for the East Coast Gas System.


March 10
Orchestrating Consumer Energy Resources to Benefit Customers and Strengthen the Grid

AGL CEO Damien Nicks will keynote this Australian Energy Council event in Melbourne. Other speakers include AEMC Chair Anna Collyer and AEMO Executive General Manager, Policy & Corporate Affairs Violette Mouchaileh.


March 10
Balance the scales: Policy, markets and power

The Australian Institute of Energy will mark International Women’s Day with a morning session for members at Neoen in Sydney, where Neoen’s Megan Ward and Baringa Partners’ Jacqui Fenwick will talk policy, markets, and power. Details here.


March 10
Road to COP31: The Australia-Pacific opportunity

Australia’s ambassador for climate change, Will Nankervis, will headline an online IGCC Open Member Briefing session at 12:30pm in which he discusses Australia’s role as president for negotiations in this year’s COP31 meeting in Türkiye and the opportunities it poses to shape global and regional climate outcomes. Register here.


March 18-19
Energy Storage Australia

NEM review panel chair Tim Nelson; Hydro Tasmania’s Erin van Maanen, Energy Security Corporation CEO Paul Peters, and Indigenous Energy Australia’s Michael Frangos will join a host of other industry and technology specialists at this Sydney event.


March 19
Powering the future: Sustainability of mining energy transition materials

The Melbourne Energy Institute will welcome Monash University’s Dr Nikolas Kuschnig for a session exploring the sustainability of mining energy transition minerals. The one-hour session, starting at 2pm online and in person at the Melbourne Connect building in Carlton, will explore the lack of information about artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) and the impact of uncertainty on the supply of metals critical for the energy transition.


March 24
Powering WA's Regions: Remote and Offshore Renewables

The Clean Energy Council will hold a panel session at Perth’s Golden Ballroom Centre, with speakers including Sabine Powell of DNV Australia, Vi Garrood of Horizon Power, Thomas Friberg of Zenith Energy, Emma van der Velde of GHD, and Nicole Blackburn of Schneider Electric (Australia).

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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