Taking the politics out of the ISP


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • ISP missed a trick
  • Poor solar forecasting costing millions
  • Pricing review offers rules for a two-way flow

Role of gas 'routinely overstated' in ISP

The roadmap for Australia’s “lowest cost” net-zero energy transition missed a trick on the power of distributed energy resources (DER) to relieve pressure on the grid and curtail the expense of new gas generation.

Issued by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) this week, with an expanded scope after a ministerial review, the Draft 2026 Integrated System Plan (ISP) more explicitly examines the interplay between grid-scale investment, consumer energy resources (CER) and DER, distribution networks, and gas market development.

As well as continuing to “routinely overstate” the role of gas, the draft ISP doesn’t go far enough on CER/DER, some critics say, which could make the transition slower, more expensive, less democratic and more emissions-intensive than necessary.

Meanwhile, Grattan Institute Energy and Climate Change senior fellow Tony Wood says it's time for a rethink on the whole thing to take out the politics.

Expert view

"Supporters of Australia’s energy transition, including the current federal government, use the ISP as evidence that policies supporting renewables, backed up with storage and gas, provide the lowest cost pathway for Australia’s energy future. Opponents use the ISP as evidence that the government’s policies are not working and that an ideological drive for renewables is risking higher costs and lower reliability. Assessing these claims requires some understanding of what the ISP is and what it is not.

Explicitly designing the ISP to meet every relevant government policy opens the gate for claims that it is not independent but politically driven. The issue is not whether a particular scenario is right or wrong, but rather that the ISP depends on the politics of the day. It is time to reconsider this approach to ensure the ongoing credibility of the ISP in the upcoming review.

A possible approach would be to emulate that used by the International Energy Agency: model three scenarios that assess what the NEM’s structure, costs and emissions would look like with current policies, new policies announced but not implemented, and policies to meet Australia’s emissions reduction targets at lowest cost."

Tony Wood
Senior Fellow, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute

Expert view

“The “step change” scenario reduces CER battery forecasts from 34GW to 27GW (-21%) even as we argued they were already too conservative - a paradoxical move enhanced in irony by the greater-than-forecast uptake of the federal government small-scale battery subsidies.

Rooftop and other small-scale #solar forecast increased to 87GW by 2050, a +15 GW (+21%) increase from the 2024 ISP's 71.5 GW projection. However, 87GW still represents only 34% of the UNSW/ISF/APVI technical potential.

It’s great to see the draft 2026 ISP emphasise that voltage management and other relatively lower-cost innovations can unlock 4GW of latent CER capacity - at first glance this is likely to be conservative.

The draft 2026 ISP significantly elevates flexible industrial demand, suggesting for example, up to 3.7 GW of electrolysers co-located near grid-scale solar to absorb surplus generation. However, it does not separately quantify residential flex demand, such as the UTS estimate of domestic hot water load flex potential of 22 GW/45 GWh/day.”

Gabrielle Kuiper
Energy, sustainability and climate change professional

Expert view

“AEMO forecasts a gradual increase in gas generation capacity, but this depends on significant, costly gas infrastructure investments. AEMO hasn't tested the commercial viability of these investments, which could even see southern states in the bizarre position of re-importing some of northern Australia's LNG exports.

In our view, the draft ISP doesn't fully appreciate the huge boom in household battery uptake. Households are installing far more batteries than most experts had forecast, and the average size of these batteries is very large. Our analysis found that homes with batteries have far less reliance on the grid on most days, and many are able to export energy back in peak times. This can offset the need for expensive gas generation."

Jay Gordan
Energy Finance Analyst, Australian Electricity, IEEFA

The solar forecasting opportunity

The ability to measure, predict and coordinate solar generation is a foundational requirement for the renewable energy transition. It can transform solar from a variable resource into a predictable and manageable component of the energy system.

As solar becomes the dominant source of electricity, the systems that manage it must become intelligent, writes Julian de Hoog in a guest post.

By 2030, the global solar forecasting opportunity is in the order of A$80 billion per year, and growing rapidly alongside fast-growing global solar deployment.

Rules for a two-way flow

The Default Market Offer could be retired and energy service providers forced to get rid of the loyalty tax under pricing reforms the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) is hoping to deliver within a decade.

The proposed changes to pricing rules come as the sector grapples with how best to price energy as more consumers embrace rooftop solar, home batteries and EVs.

The changes would force energy service providers to charge all customers on the same plan the same price, and introduce an auction process under which they would compete for a pool of customers on standing offers.

The Australian Energy Regulator would receive extra funding to enhance its Energy Made Easy comparison site, tapping AI to help consumers find the best offer. The regulator has been criticised for not enabling consumers to compare VPP-specific and battery orchestration offers, despite these becoming more popular in recent years.

“The way we use energy is changing rapidly. By 2040, we expect one in every two Australian homes will have solar systems, one in every four will have batteries, and one in every four will have electric vehicles. We're working toward a pricing framework that is robust and adaptable to these changes, supports a diverse range of products and services, gives consumers meaningful choice, and delivers the lowest-cost system that meets all consumers' needs. This includes addressing current challenges like the loyalty tax, ensuring everyone can access products they want, and making sure cost-sharing is fair as the energy system evolves.”
AEMC Chair Anna Collyer

Some of the proposed changes stem from a desire by retailers to be able to bundle CER, pricing and digital tools into subscription models, rebates or flat rates. Others from concerns network costs will be avoided by consumers and small businesses with a battery.

A move towards higher fixed network charges, an idea supported by Energy Consumers Australia, is on the cards with the fixed charge expected to recover more of each network’s revenue requirement than it does today.

Catch Up

Capital

BHP (ASX: BHP) has unlocked capital from inland power infrastructure in a US$2 billion deal with Blackrock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP). The mining giant will pay the new entity a tariff linked to BHP’s share of Western Australia Iron Ore’s (WAIO) inland power network over a 25-year period and retain full operational control. BHP said there were no impacts to operations, workforce or electricity services across the Pilbara as a result of the binding agreement, likewise Traditional Owner, joint venture partnerships and WA state agreements were unaffected. The deal covers Yarnima Power Station, more than 400km of transmission and distribution lines, and integrated substations and control systems supplying electricity to WAIO’s mining operations and the Newman township.


Projects

ACCIONA Energía completed the commissioning and start of commercial operations of the Aldoga Solar Farm (480MWp), located 20km north-west of Gladstone on the central Queensland coast, ahead of schedule. The asset’s entire renewable energy output will be supplied to state-owned Stanwell Corporation under a 15-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and sold into the spot market or retailed to commercial and industrial customers.

Essential Energy said a Plug and Play kerbside charging program would fast-track the expansion of EV charging in towns, which are lagging urban areas. Third-party charge point operators (CPOs) will connect 1,000 new public EV chargers within existing power poles across its NSW network, alongside the installation of 300 composite pole streetlight chargers in partnership with Australian company Wagners Composite Fibre Technologies which feature fully integrated 7kW white-labelled chargers ready for operators to lease.

A proposed LNG project in Papua New Guinea, led by TotalEnergies with ExxonMobil, Santos (ASX: STO) and ENEOS, will test a risk framework known as the Equator Principles as six organisations submitted the first formal complaint under the benchmark. “MUFG’s role as financial advisor to a project rejected by many banks highlights serious failures in its risk management and a clear contradiction with its commitment to achieving net zero emissions. MUFG must take this complaint seriously, conduct a thorough investigation, and withdraw from the Papua LNG project to uphold its environmental and human rights promises,” said Eri Watanabe, Japan Energy Finance Campaigner, Market Forces. Japan’s MUFG was contacted for comment.


Policy

The Victorian government released petroleum exploration permits in the Otway and Gippsland basins - the first acreage release since 2018. More than two million of the state’s households are still connected to gas and around one-third of the state’s manufacturing energy needs are met by gas. “Victoria is forecast to experience gas shortfalls as soon as 2027,” Australian Energy Producers Victoria Director Peter Kos said, calling for the government to commit to annual acreage releases to rebuild investment confidence and secure ongoing gas supply.

The Australian Sustainable Finance Institute (ASFI) welcomed reports of an overhaul of public investment vehicles but warned mandates were only one part of the story for a stronger green finance system. “Shifting risk appetite on paper won’t, on its own, unlock the scale of private capital Australia needs. If we want our public finance to accelerate private investment rather than crowd it out, the review must take a whole of system view and ensure capability is front and centre,” ASFI CEO Kristy Graham said.

Australia’s specialist investment vehicles have more than $30 billion yet to be deployed and, as a new report from the Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC) points out, the system governing these vehicles was designed for a slower, more stable era -not for the pace, scale and global competition defining today’s clean-industry transition. “With the right reforms, that $30 billion could unlock more than $100 billion in private investment to build clean-industry jobs and resilient infrastructure,” IGCC CEO Rebecca Mikula-Wright said.


Regulation

Energy Consumers Australia (ECA) said the beneficiary-pays approach in a rule change made by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) would help consumers assess the true costs of using gas when weighing whether to electrify. The decision amends the National Gas Rules (NGRs) and means gas network distributors will charge new customers the full upfront cost of new connections, rather than socialising the costs across existing gas customers. “Australian household and small business gas use is expected to decline 72% by 2043 and be largely non-existent by 2050,” ECA CEO Brendan French said.

The European Commission said it would fast track transmission projects by accelerating permitting procedures and ensure a fairer division of costs on cross-border projects as part of a proposed European Grids Package. It wants to see increasingly integrated cross-border energy infrastructure deliver benefits beyond the territories where it’s built with “fair and transparent cost-sharing essential to avoid disproportionate burdens on local consumers”. (PV Magazine)


Technology

Energy Minister Chris Bowen officially launched the Vehicle-Grid Network (VGN) project, funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), the RACE for 2030 CRC, and industry partners. The project, aiming to solve technical, regulatory and market challenges to widespread V2G uptake, will be led by Climate-KIC Australia and the University of Technology Sydney’s Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF).


Climate

Research from Charles Sturt University shows climate change and extreme weather events are influencing people’s decisions about where to move in the year ahead. The survey shows Tasmania is strongly preferred by two in five Australians (41 per cent) as the safest state or territory to live in as the climate changes. “Contrary to images of off-grid, self‑sufficient farms, most Australians believe living in existing towns and cities will be safest as the planet warms,” Professor of Public Ethics Clive Hamilton said.

A Climate Resource analysis of coal demand in Australia’s key markets indicates that by 2035, thermal coal exports could fall by 64% or more, and metallurgical coal exports could drop by 28% or more. Australia’s own 2035 thermal coal use is projected to be 86-93% lower. Australia is urged to cease approval of new coal projects, better support exposed regions with transition plans and new industries, and develop a coal phase-out roadmap aligned with Paris targets with thermal and metallurgical coal requiring distinct phase-out strategies based on their market dynamics and regional export profiles.


People

Plico appointed Alan Reid as Chief Operating Officer to drive a national expansion.


Research

Springer Nature has launched a new journal, Watt, for research “bridging academia, industry, economics, and policy with the aim of accelerating the energy transition”. The journal’s Executive Editor-in-Chief will be Rose Zhu, 21C Innovation Laboratory-Hong Kong Research Institute, China.


Random

US startup Overview Energy said it had successfully demonstrated a key technology for its plans to transmit power from space to the Earth using lasers. (Space News)

What's On

December 9, Sydney and December 11, Melbourne
Energy Tetris

The Energy’s first live event will feature Quinbrook CEO Brian Restall, Energy Security Corporation CEO Paul Peters, Southerly Ten Chief Development Officer Erin Coldham, Hydro Tasmania Chairman Richard Bolt, Westwind Managing Director Tobias Geiger, Atmos Renewables GM of Development Allison Hawke, RWE Renewables APAC Head of Regulatory Affairs Matthew Dickie, ASL GM System Planning & Financial Markets, Melanie Koerner, UNSW Associate Professor Iain MacGill and Senior Research Associate Dylan McConnell and Energy Edge MD Josh Stabler.


December 15
AEMC Public Forum: The pricing review

The Australian Energy Market Commission will host an online forum on its draft recommendations for the pricing review.


December 17
AER Public Forum: AusNet Transmission Revenue Proposal 2027-32

The Australian Energy Regulator will host an online public forum for stakeholders to ask questions about AusNet's 2027-32 transmission revenue proposal.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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