Squaring net zero with lowest cost


Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy.

In today's edition:

  • Economists put net zero above cost in transition
  • Potent exposure to methane emissions
  • VNI West delay will bite

Countering the least-cost bias

The net zero goal matters more than the cost when transforming Australia’s energy system, according to a poll of leading economists.

Asked to identify the most important of three goals for the future energy system, 18 of the 40 polled in the latest Economic Society of Australia survey picked getting to net zero, 16 selected ensuring the power system was reliable, and only five said it was minimising cost.

Given renewables already supply 40% of the NEM, climate economist Professor Frank Jotzo said it was clear that if electricity was to be affordable and secure, it would have to be created by the sun and the wind with backup from storage and a small amount of gas.

For the Australian Energy Market Operator, the “lowest cost” priority underpins the optimal development path for the National Electricity Market (NEM). Updated every two years, an Integrated System Plan (ISP) outlines the lowest-cost investment required for reliable, secure and affordable electricity, while meeting national emission reduction targets.

Public policy specialist Rana Roy said what was important was minimising the total “social cost” of providing electricity, not merely the financial component of the social cost. That would include the social cost of carbon emissions and the negative impacts of generation and transmission on air, soil, water and biodiversity.

Potent exposure to methane emissions

Australia’s “big four” banks are exposed over methane emissions, which have been overlooked in emissions accounting and reduction targets, according to a report by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

IEEFA said banks could reduce their risk exposure by targeting methane reduction more directly by:

  • Making the submission of climate transition plans for all fossil fuel clients mandatory and integrating methane into emissions accounting and customer transition plans
  • Requiring clients in methane-intensive sectors to provide independent verification of self-reported methane emissions
  • Considering setting phase-out targets for metallurgical coal financing.
“Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, responsible for about 30% of the post-industrial increase in global temperatures. It’s also the main component of LNG and naturally occurs in coal seams. Therefore, methane goes hand in hand with coal production and oil & gas drilling, storage and transportation.
Although banks recognise the methane risks in other sectors, they tend to ignore the methane emissions from their coal or oil & gas clients. So far, none of the major banks in Australia report methane emission estimates separately from the carbon dioxide emissions for these companies.” - Anne-Louise Knight, IEEFA’s Lead Coal Analyst for Australia

The missing link

A two-year delay in a vital Victoria to NSW transmission link threatens to stall critical wind and solar projects and undermine investor confidence in the energy transition, experts warn.

Allowing more time to negotiate land deals, Transmission Company Victoria (TCV) pushed out the expected completion date for the VNI West project to “late 2030”, which will increase the reliance on ageing coal-fired power stations and gas peakers to meet Victorian demand.

“We know this updated timeline may be frustrating, but we’re committed to working with landholders respectfully and providing the support they need to consider what is best for them, their properties, and farming or business operations. While the timeline has shifted, the critical purpose of VNI West remains the same - to deliver the infrastructure needed to keep Victoria's lights on, and help put downward pressure on electricity prices,” TCV said.

Expert view

“VNI West is critical to unlocking the renewable energy projects and storage to replace the aging coal stations. who won’t be able to access generation from NSW. The VNI-West project is a key element of Victoria’s energy future, providing additional ongoing energy security for Victorians as key Victorian coal power stations close.

Australia’s coal power stations are now limping to the end of their lifespan. Wind and solar technologies are now the cheapest forms of generation per unit of energy and can be integrated with storage to provide cost-effective and reliable ‘firmed’ electricity. Transmission continues to be the missing link And until transmission is sorted, bills will be high.”

Stephanie Bashir
Principal, Nexa Advisory

Catch up

Capital

Low-carbon fuels company HAMR Energy, founded by former ExxonMobil and shipping executives, launched a $10 million Series A capital raise to support a project pipeline of sustainable fuels for the transport and industrial sectors. Using forestry waste as a feedstock, the company is developing a complete production process to turn biomass to fuel.

Awaiting environmental approval from NOPSEMA, Emperor Energy (ASX: EMP) said an audit by a petroleum consultancy confirmed the Judith resource located 2km north of the Esso/Woodside Kipper Gas Field offshore Gippsland, Victoria, supported high flow rate commercial wells. Executive Director Phil McNamara said the cornerstone gas supply project could have a “materially positive impact” on the east coast gas crisis amid declining production from southern gas fields.


Projects

Offshore wind proponent BlueFloat Energy is reportedly considering the sale of its Victorian project, according to The Australian. A spokesman for the company declined to comment and insisted that no final decision had been made. Meanwhile Norwegian energy giant Equinor is yet to formally accept an offshore wind development licence in NSW. (Sky)

Emerging Queensland utility QPM Energy (ASX: QPM) pitched its proposed Isaac Energy Hub as an asset to the state’s unique energy transition. Served by QPM’s gas reserves, the 112MW plant - with turbines secured despite a global shortage - will be co-located with the existing Moranbah Gas Processing and Compression Facility. CEO David Wrench told an investor webinar that building out electricity generation capacity (targeting 500MW) would make electricity sales its largest source of revenue. A 100MW four-hour battery and additional gas-fired generation is in the pipeline for Stage 2.

Energy transition infrastructure specialist Quinbrook announced the start of commercial operations at a landmark British project. Cleve Hill Solar Park in Kent is now exporting at 100% of its 373 MW capacity, which is more than four times the size of the next largest operational UK solar project. The first such project to be consented as a Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project, it was also supported by the largest solar and battery storage project financing ever closed in the UK. In May, electricity exports from Cleve Hill during commissioning peaked at a level equivalent to 0.7% of national power demand.


Policy

The Quad - Australia, Japan, India and the United States - underscored the importance of diversified and reliable global supply chains for critical minerals.

“Reliance on any one country for processing and refining critical minerals and derivative goods production exposes our industries to economic coercion, price manipulation, and supply chain disruptions, which further harms our economic and national security.” - Joint statement from the Quad foreign ministers

US Senate Republicans have taken the sprawling megabill the House sent them and sharpened it further, making President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda more politically explosive. (Politico) (Reuters) (BBC)

According to an American Clean Power analysis:

  • Clean energy businesses will be taxed an additional US$4-7 billion by 2036
  • Electricity prices for consumers and businesses will rise by 8-10%
  • With power demand projected to surge 35-50% by 2040, there would be 300GW less wind and solar project capacity built to meet it
  • Jobs and capital investment will plummet: 300,000 jobs will vanish and US$450 billion in lost investment capital
  • Data centres will look elsewhere to find more affordable power sources, ceding the digital race to China.

The European Commission proposed an EU emissions reduction target of 90% by 2040, a softer target than initially planned. It said the target would "give certainty to investors...and increase Europe's energy security". (Politico) (The Guardian)


Regulation

The Australian Energy Regulator plans to keep a close eye on the adequacy of consumer protections and information about tariff changes in the upcoming accelerated smart meter rollout. Releasing its compliance and enforcement priorities for 2025-26, the regulator will also monitor gas pipeline service providers who face a “death spiral” in their customer base.


Technology

Robotics pioneer Luminous received $4.9 million as the first recipient of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency’s $100 million Solar ScaleUp Challenge, which is crowdsourcing ideas on how to reduce the cost of large-scale solar. The LUMI robot addresses one of the industry’s most labour-intensive tasks: panel installation.

“ARENA has set an ambitious goal to reduce the installed cost of solar to 30 cents per watt and bring the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) below $20 per megawatt hour. These are important targets, because at this cost solar will form the foundation for Australia’s renewable energy ‘superpower’ future.” - ARENA CEO Darren Miller

AI giant Nvidia backed a US startup that enables AI data centres to flexibly adjust their power consumption from the grid. Emerald AI’s software shifts AI computational loads to match regional grids' needs. (Axios) (Latitude Media)


Climate

Climate scientists are alarmed by the Trump administration’s latest attack on research after the 35-year old Global Change Research Program website went dark despite being required to publish periodic climate assessments. The removal of these reports and the potential failure to write new ones could be grounds for legal action under the Global Change Research Act of 1990 that established the research program. (Inside Climate News)


People

University students will be matched with NSW businesses to work on emissions-reducing projects under a new “Skills for Net Zero” internship program from the NSW Government. The three-year, $1 million pilot program will cover 100 tertiary students. Participating businesses will receive recruitment and placement support and a $2,500 payment to subsidise the intern’s wage, paid after the internship is completed.

Deputy Vice Chancellor (Community and Leadership) Lucy Marshall and Engineering Director of Google Research Australia Grace Chung jointly won the Judy Raper Award at a UNSW Women in Engineering event.

“As a woman in engineering, I can say with absolute certainty that being in an environment where women’s leadership is expected, is nurtured and even celebrated has made all the difference. I carry that legacy into every role I’ve taken on since, and I try to pay it forward wherever I can. I’m also incredibly proud of the work the university continues to do in championing women in engineering more broadly. It’s not just about individual careers - it’s about shifting the culture, and I’m grateful to have been part of that journey.” - UNSW Professor Lucy Marshall

Research

The vast majority of gas from fracking in the Beetaloo Basin would be exported, environmental advocacy group Market Forces said, in new analysis questioning claims the gas could be used to meet domestic demand. Market Forces said the project would produce more than nine times the entire gas demand forecast by AEMO for Australia’s NEM for the next 25 years, and would come with a $4 billion pipeline cost to deliver to the east coast.

Machine learning has become an enabling technology for maximising energy grid efficiency, load forecasting and renewable integration but its potential remains unfulfilled because of lingering data quality issues, computational requirements and scalability, according to research published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

An increasing number of nuclear reactors and entire power plants are being closed down around the world, but little attention is paid to issues around dismantling and the future use of these sites, according to research published in Energy Research and Social Science.


Random

Millions of websites will now be able to block AI bots from accessing their content without permission. (BBC) (ZDNet)

What's on

July 9
National Press Club

Smart Energy Council CEO John Grimes will speak on “Power politics: The political power of Australia’s renewable energy industry” at this event in Canberra.


July 17-18
Carbon Capture APAC Summit

Chevron General Manager of Energy Transition David Fallon, Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods, CarbonNet Project Director Jane Burton, Geoscience Director of Offshore Energy Systems Merrie-Ellen Gunning are among speakers at this event in Melbourne.


July 17-18
Australia Wind Energy 2025

VicGrid CEO Alistair Parker, Siemens Gamesa Global CEO Vinod Philip, New.E co-lead Clare Larkin-Sykes, RWE Renewables CEO Australia Daniel Belton, Engie AU Chief Renewables Officer Laura Caspari, ACCIONA Energía Australia MD Brett Wickham and CEFC Director, Investments, Nick Hawke are among the line-up at this Melbourne event.


July 22
Smart Energy South Australia

Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen will headline at the Smart Energy Council conference and expo in Adelaide.


July 29-30
Australian Clean Energy Summit (ACES) 2025

AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman, AEMC Chair Anna Collyer, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, AGL CEO Damien Nicks, Iberdrola Australia CEO Ross Rolfe and Squadron Energy CEO Rob Wheals are among the lineup at the Clean Energy Council’s flagship event in Sydney.


July 30
Australian Sustainable Finance Summit

Treasury Deputy Secretary Angelia Grant, Original Power Executive Director Karrina Nolan, and Australian Office of Financial Management CEO Anna Hughes are among the line-up at this Sydney event.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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