Sending mixed signals


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Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • More than an emissions target
  • Woodside warning
  • Leading from the rooftops

Determining Australia’s economic future

The much-anticipated 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement is more than an emissions target — it’s a signal about the economy we want to have, writes Investor Group on Climate Change policy expert Frankie Muskovic.

Institutional investors managing trillions in assets, and the retirement savings of millions of Australians, will also use the target as a test of the country’s ambition — climate ambition and ambition to be globally competitive in future industries and trade as a renewable energy superpower. But it should be legislated to give investors confidence.

The next piece of homework for the federal government would be to complement sector plans with investment roadmaps that go to the next level of detail and identify priority projects, financing mechanisms, and policy reforms. For example, adding export addendums to the energy and resources plans could support low-carbon commodities.

Expert view

“A destination without directions might be fun for a family road trip, but it’s not a great way to decarbonise your economy – unless you want it to take longer and cost more.

Investors are looking for clarity on how each sector will decarbonise. There’s a lot of chat about making the six sectoral plans ‘investible’, but what does that actually mean? If you were looking to invest billions of dollars over 20- and 30-year time horizons, you’d want some details and signposted milestones on the trajectories in different scenarios that can get us to net zero emissions by 2050.

Key technologies must be identified along with the policies and programs that will assist their deployment at scale. The plans should also be consistent with each other and identify key intersections and cross-cutting strategies like energy efficiency and electrification.”

Frankie Muskovic
Executive Director, Policy, Investor Group on Climate Change

‘The real story here is alignment’

The nation’s oldest and second-largest LNG gas processing plant has been extended to 2070, snagging international headlines as Australia bids to host next year’s climate talks and prepares to release the 2035 target. (BBC) (Reuters) (The Guardian) (SBS)

Polling data released on Sunday by Business for 75 found two-thirds of Australians want the federal government to commit to reducing emissions by 75% or higher by 2035.

“This isn’t a fringe view — it is a clear majority of voters saying they want a 75% target or higher by 2035. Businesses are saying the same, and the science has long been clear. The real story here is alignment. For once, the public, business and experts are all pulling in the same direction. The opportunity for Australia is to lead, not lag.”
Simon Sheikh
Future Group CEO

Climate campaigners have described Woodside Energy’s (ASX: WDS) North West Shelf extension as a “carbon bomb” that is contrary to global climate goals. But for the operators and investors, the project now has certainty to run for more than another four decades to supply Asia and avert WA’s forecast domestic gas shortfalls from 2030.

The Murujuga Cultural Landscape, which covers nearly 100,000 hectares including the Burrup Peninsula, Dampier Archipelago and surrounding submerged landscapes and sea country, was described as a “manifestation of creative genius, inscribed in the landscape since deep time” when it won world heritage status in July after years of advocacy by Ngarda-Ngarli Traditional Owners and Custodians represented by Murujuga Aboriginal Corporation.

Environment Minister Murray Watt said he was confident the 48 conditions on Woodside related to monitoring and restricting industrial emissions, including corrosive nitrous oxide, “are the right ones to protect jobs and economic opportunities and to protect the rock art”.

Australia was warned at the Pacific Island Forum — again — about continuing major fossil fuel projects as Canberra talks up its environmental credentials. (AAP)

The National Climate Risk Assessment reportedly includes “dire” forecasts of heat-related fatalities, coastal inundation, drought, and severe impacts on agriculture

Leading from the rooftops

Rooftop solar provided 12.8% of electricity generation in the first half of 2025, with the installation rate suggesting the source will exceed energy planners’ expectations for 36GW by 2030.

The Clean Energy Council's (CEC) bi-annual Rooftop Solar and Storage Report found Australians installed a total of 26.8GW of rooftop solar capacity across 4.2 million homes and small businesses by June 2025.

The amount already installed represents nearly three-quarters of the capacity needed to meet expectations outlined in the Integrated System Plan. Based on current trends, CEC distributed energy expert Con Hristodoulidis expects 37.2GW of rooftop solar to be installed by June 2030, beating projections by 3.3%.

Australians are also embracing home batteries at record pace, with 85,000 battery units sold in the first half of 2025 — a 191% increase on the same period last year — even before subsidies kicked in for a cumulative total 271,000 home batteries installed nationwide, nearly double the total from 12 months ago.

Catch Up

Capital

The African Climate Summit’s “Addis Ababa Declaration on Climate Change and Call for Action” highlighted Africa's potential to lead in renewable energy and green development — with equitable financing. (Down to Earth) (Modern Diplomacy)


Projects

Developers say the $8 billion Navigator North offshore wind farm, backed by Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) and UK-headquartered RES, won’t be ready for the first round of auctions. A reluctance to bid for government funding to build 110 turbines off the coast of Gippsland is the latest in a string of delayed or cancelled offshore wind projects. (ABC) (AAP)

“I think the whole process is taking a lot longer and turning out to be more expensive than maybe it had been anticipated.”
Tony Wood
Grattan Institute Senior Fellow

WA’s Environmental Protection Authority’s (EPA) assessment report backed AGL Energy’s (ASX: AGL) bid to triple its gas-fired Kwinana Swift Power Station output, recommending it be approved subject to caveats on emissions. (Business News) (The West)


Policy

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced $12 billion for shipbuilding and submarine base upgrades in the Henderson Defence Precinct in Perth, upping the ante on future WA energy demand.

California passed a package of bills on Saturday to authorise independent governance of energy markets, reauthorise the state’s cap-and-trade carbon program, and connect the electricity grid more closely to its neighboring states as a “West-wide grid”. (AP) (Politico)

“Expanding long range, high voltage transmission is essential to bringing additional clean energy projects online and retiring costly, outdated fossil fuel plants. To date, California has struggled to complete these critical projects on time. Public financing of transmission will support acceleration of these projects at a lower cost, leading to increased savings and improved electricity reliability for California ratepayers. Looking ahead, creating even more public financing mechanisms for electricity grid infrastructure could further add to these benefits.”
Daniel Barad
Western States Acting Co-Director for the Union of Concerned Scientists

Western Australia Energy Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson told a conference the plan for Western Power's transmission network across the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) would be released “imminently”, with the Whole of System Plan (WoSP) also be updated, Boiling Cold reported.

“It will give indicative time frames of the three phases of the grid buildout over 10 years and will give proponents a good idea of where the grid is going to be and where the best place to put your project may be.”
Amber-Jade Sanderson
WA Energy Minister

Regulation

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released a draft decision on APA Group’s (ASX: APA) revenue proposal for the Basslink interconnector, forecasting revenue for the 2026-30 regulatory control period at $428.8 million or 3.2% less than proposed by Basslink. Basslink’s proposal also allocated 75% of regulated revenue to Victoria and 25% to Tasmania, but AER does not have a decision-making role in approving or rejecting that aspect. The regulator expects to receive a revised proposal from APA in mid-November and will make a final decision in February 2026 to enable Basslink to become a regulated service by July 1, 2026.

“We know Basslink plays a critical role supporting energy consumers in both Victoria and Tasmania. APA will review this determination and continue to engage positively with the AER to ensure the final determination supports the ongoing reliable operation of this asset."
Adam Watson
APA Group CEO

A partial declaration was made under the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Heritage Protection Act (ATSIHP Act) to protect the Murujuga heritage site in WA’s Pilbara region, which will be released, along with an explanatory memorandum, on the Federal Register of Legislation. The Act allows the federal Environment Minister to make a declaration protecting a significant Aboriginal heritage area and or objects under threat of injury or desecration.


Technology

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm insists no one other than Elon Musk is capable of leading the company’s transition into artificial intelligence and robotics, but it’s possible he won’t be sitting in the CEO’s seat. (AFR/Bloomberg)

Meanwhile the US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says nuclear fusion will soon power the world, making claims in a BBC interview that even surprised the most ardent enthusiasts.


Climate

Wind and solar power generated more than a third of COP30 host Brazil’s electricity in August, the first month on record the two renewable sources have crossed that threshold, according to government data analysed by energy think tank Ember. (The Independent)


People

Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) Chair Steven Skala was re-appointed to the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) for a one‑year period.

Clayton Utz appointed Allen’s M&A expert Mark Malinas as Head of Private Equity.


Research

A net-zero inventory project, led by University of Western Australia chemical engineering student Phoebe Tran and designed to inform strategic investment in technologies in mining and other heavy industries, has been backed by the Minerals Research Institute of Western Australia (MRIWA). The survey, co-sponsored by WA’s Department of Energy and Economic Diversification (DEED), is running until September 30.


Random

Despite a slow-down in the US, global renewable energy investments set another record in the first half of 2025, rising 10% from the same period of last year to reach $386 billion. (Bloomberg)

What's On

September 15
Queensland Clean Energy Summit

Corrs Chambers Westgarth Partner Melissa Grintner, Windlab Chief Development Officer Nathan Blundell, Aula Energy Head of Development Anthony Russo, regional mayors Greg Williamson and Andrew Smith, and Jo Sheppard from the Queensland Farmers'​ Federation are among the line-up at this Clean Energy Council event in Brisbane.


September 16
The Price of Power: The Future of Australia's Energy Sector

Bluescope Chief Executive, Climate Change and Sustainability Deborah Caudle, Alinta Energy CEO Jeff Dimery, AGL CEO Damien Nicks and Australian Energy Council CEO Louisa Kinnear will speak at this American Chamber of Commerce event in Melbourne, with R. Blair Thomas, CEO of US energy investment firm EIG speaking via Zoom.


September 16-18
Industrial Net Zero Conference 2025

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Viva Energy Future Fuels Manager Vanessa Lenihan, Jemena General Manager Environment & Sustainability Sonia Fourie, Vulcan Energy Head of Sustainability Samantha Langley and ARENA’s Technical Lead on Decarbonisation Peter Haenke are among the speakers at this event in Sydney.


September 17
National Press Club

Dr Vanessa Pirotta will address the National Press Club on “Australia’s Scientific Future: Built on Education, Connection and Investment” at this Canberra event.


September 18
Shaping the future of energy in the North, Broome

Horizon Power Future Technology & Innovation Manager David Edwards will speak alongside WA Chamber of Minerals and Energy Manager for Climate and Energy Steven Mills and Renew Map Co-founder Alex Thompson at this Broome Chamber of Commerce & Industry event.


September 23
AEMO's Annual Results

Australian Energy Market Operator CEO Daniel Westerman and Executive General Manager for Finance and Governance Vanessa Hannan will outline progress against strategic priorities and initiatives, financial results for FY25 and priorities for FY26.


September 24
Updated net zero pathways for Australia

The Net Zero Australia Project team from the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and Princeton University will present their latest report on the roles of renewables, energy storage and firming including nuclear, carbon capture and storage and other complementary technologies at this hybrid event.


October 7-8
NEM Development Conference 2025

EnergyAustralia Managing Director Mark Collette and Powerlink CEO Paul Simshauser will headline this Brisbane event hosted by Griffith University and UQ, which will also feature Queensland Farmers Federation CEO Jo Sheppard, NEM Review panel Chair Tim Nelson, Victoria Energy Policy Centre Director Bruce Mountain, University of Sydney Professor of Law Penny Crossley, Iberdrola GM Regulation & Energy Policy Joel Gilmore and Global Roam CEO Paul McArdle.


October 15
The Energy Q&A with the NEM Review panel

NEM Review panel Tim Nelson, Paula Conboy, Ava Hancock and Phil Hirschhorn will speak at this webinar moderated by The Energy Advisory Board Member Anna Hancock.


October 16-17
IGCC Summit 2025: Decoding the transition

Generation Investment Management Founding Partner and former US Vice President Al Gore will headline this Sydney event from the Investor Group on Climate Change. Other speakers include NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel, ARENA Associate Director Tanya Hodgeson and Net Zero Economy Agency CEO David Shankey.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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