Queensland roadmap repercussions


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Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Queensland's policy U-turn
  • China's rare earths threat
  • Reducing emissions without hurting households

A plan built on buried sunshine

The state with Australia’s youngest fleet of coal-fired power stations will run them until at least the 2040s under the Queensland Energy Roadmap that bins Queensland Labor’s targets of 70% renewable energy by 2032 and 80% by 2035.

“It charts a pragmatic path to meet Queensland’s energy needs over the next five years and beyond — founded on economics and engineering, not ideology,” Treasurer and Energy Minister David Janetzki says.

Running state-owned coal assets to technical life rather than an accelerated closure schedule saves around $26 billion to 2035 and translates to an annual avoided cost of $1,035 per household, he promises.

“Institutional investors are actively seeking credible, scalable entry points into Australia’s energy transition, and Queensland stands as a real state of opportunity for investment across its energy value chain. This initiative provides clarity of pipeline, alignment of interests and the assurance of Government-backed delivery for investors.”
Ross Israel
QIC Head of Global Infrastructure

But critics say the energy roadmap will increase energy bills and damage the nation’s capacity to respond to climate change for decades to come.

Further, regions such as Gladstone where heavyweights like Rio Tinto are powering up renewables to meet federal and investor requirements, face more uncertainty under the state’s policy U-turn.

Expert view

“Gladstone has a proud industrial heritage and a vital role in Queensland’s energy future. Our upcoming Powering Up Gladstone report shows local industries are ready to build on that legacy through clean manufacturing. Our upcoming Powering Up Gladstone report shows local industries are ready to build on that legacy through clean manufacturing.

Yet the energy roadmap’s continued support for fossil fuels risks holding the region back. We welcome the clarity on transmission infrastructure and emphasis on action over announcements, but real progress means backing renewables, not prolonging fossil fuel generation. With coordinated investment in clean industries, Gladstone can grow its industrial base, secure long-term jobs and drive Queensland’s prosperity through the clean energy transition."

Matt McKee
Chief Researcher, Beyond Zero Emissions

Expert view

“Without action to create market conditions for a timely retirement of coal, assumptions within AEMO’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) will need to be reviewed and projections updated.

The roadmap provides for an extended use of coal, beyond 2040, based on system needs and economic viability. This approach aligns more closely with AEMO’s “Progressive Change” scenario, which assumes higher global warming outcomes due to slower decarbonisation. It places Australia on a trajectory for well above 2 degrees warming, increasing the likelihood of unpredictable weather systems, energy system instability, and economic disruption.

The National Climate Risk Assessment warns that under such warming annual disaster costs could reach $40.3 billion by 2049-50, with government disaster recovery spending five times higher by 2090 under a 2 degree scenario, and 7.2 times higher under sub-4 degrees."

Dr Tracey Dodd
Adjunct Associate Professor and National Lead, Governance Institute of Australia and Senior Lecturer, University of Adelaide

Catch Up

Capital

The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) opened Hydrogen Headstart Program Round 2, looking for bids that focus on plant construction and design to reduce capital costs, improving the efficiency of electrolysers, flexible operations and other ways to reduce the cost of renewable electricity, and enhancing end-use infrastructure for priority sectors, including hydrogen for green ammonia, iron and steel, alumina, and long-distance heavy transport including aviation and shipping.

Tasmania’s Minister for Energy and Renewables Nick Duigan said a deal agreed by Aurora Energy and the operator of Australia’s last paper mill — and its coal-powered boilers — locked in the credit security requirements to cover ongoing power needs and operations, after Aurora sought a $7 million guarantee. Duigan also acknowledged plans to electrify. “Critical to this vision is converting our boilers from coal-fired to electrification. This is a federal government backed initiative that will deliver a 170,000-tonne saving in carbon emissions for Tasmania,” Boyer Capital Principal David Marriner said. (Pulse) (ABC)

Meanwhile Australia’s biggest aluminium smelter, Tomago in NSW, is “on death row” and struggling to come up with affordable energy supply to prevent its closure at the end of 2028. (AFR) (The Australian)


Projects

Advancing Queensland’s next major gas-fired generator, QPM Energy (ASX:QPM) inked a $113.7 million Master Lease Agreement with Macquarie Bank, with a term of up to 84 months to cover construction and early operations, marking a milestone in the development of the 112MW Isaac Power Station in Moranbah, Central Queensland. “With delivery of the gas turbines now locked in, the Company is well positioned to deliver Queensland’s next major gas fired power station on time and on budget,” QPM CEO David Wrench said.


Policy

China threatened to further restrict access to rare earths — a major lever of influence with the United States — prompting another tariff slap and posing an opportunity for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s upcoming White House talks. China also placed restrictions on the export of specialist technological equipment used to refine rare-earth metals, most of which go into effect from December 1. “The message is clear: if the US and its allies want supply chain security, they must build independent value chains from mine to magnet,” Benchmark analyst Neha Mukherjee said. The trade war resulted in a price spike in the Toronto-listed Neo Performance Materials, prompting Andrew Forrest to cash in his 19.9% stake in the company. (Aljazeera) (AFR) (BBC) (9News) (The Australian)


Regulation

The NSW government announced pricing changes for embedded networks, where the owner of a site buys bulk electricity and sells it to residents, including retirement homes, strata dwellings, and caravan parks. People in these networks often pay more for energy and have no say in supply or plans. A maximum energy price, as recommended by the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART), will be applied immediately along with medium-term reforms and follows years of advocacy by the Justice and Equity Centre and others.

More than 170,000 customers have been overcharged a total of $40 million by WA's state-owned energy retailer Synergy since 2009. The overcharges range from amounts under a dollar, to thousands of dollars and the repayments could take months. (ABC)


Technology

The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute launched the Ocean Innovation Challenge that gives startups with new ideas in renewable energy, coastal protection, ocean technologies or marine innovation free access to the Coastal and Offshore Research Laboratory or the National Geotechnical Centrifuge Facility for one week of testing.


Climate

New Zealand lowered its methane target and ruled out an agricultural methane tax, saying the target of 14-24% below 2017 levels by 2050 reflected the findings of a Methane Science Review released last year. A “split gas target” for all of New Zealand’s future international climate change commitments is also in the works. The announcement on Sunday followed recent legislation limiting full-farm forestry conversions into the NZ Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), as part of a wider reset of climate policy. (RNZ) (1News) (AAP)


People

Environment Minister Murray Watt will be acting Minister for Climate Change and Energy this week with Chris Bowen on a work trip in China and India for the ninth Australia-China Ministerial Dialogue on Climate Change, the fifth India-Australia Energy Dialogue and India’s first Renewable Energy Partnership Ministers Meeting.


Research

The Grattan Institute’s latest research, Bills down, emissions down, calls on the federal government to use the Safeguard Mechanism to reduce emissions in the electricity sector, arguing there is “policy room” to do so without hurting households, given bills are projected to halve by 2050. “For too long, federal governments of both political colours have avoided pricing carbon because the trade-off is higher electricity prices. Our report shows that this assumption is becoming outdated,” lead author Alison Reeve said.

Better harnessing migrant engineering talent in key sectors like manufacturing, renewables, construction and mining could lift GDP by $2.56 billion by 2030, according to research by Bondi Partners for Engineers Australia. Despite their strong credentials, migrant engineers often encounter bias, underemployment and unequal pay. Of Australia’s 266,000 overseas-born engineers, half are not in engineering roles.

What's On

October 15
The Energy Q&A with the NEM Review panel

NEM Review panel Tim Nelson, Paula Conboy, Ava Hancock and Phil Hirschhorn will speak at this webinar moderated by The Energy Advisory Board Member Anna Hancock.


October 16-17
IGCC Summit 2025: Decoding the transition

Generation Investment Management Founding Partner and former US Vice President Al Gore will headline this Sydney event from the Investor Group on Climate Change. Other speakers include NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel, ARENA Associate Director Tanya Hodgeson and Net Zero Economy Agency CEO David Shankey.


October 22
2025 Order of Australia Lecture

Emeritus Professor Mark Howden will deliver this year’s Order of Australia keynote - Go hard or go slow on climate change? What’s in the national interest? - at this Canberra event.


October 23
Understanding Australia's 2035 Net Zero numbers

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean will speak at this UTS event in Sydney, in conversation with Professor Stuart White, Director of the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures.


October 27
The real costs of the transition

Powerlink CEO Paul Simshauser will speak at this lunchtime webinar from The Energy, alongside Aurecon Managing Director, Energy (Australia) Paul Gleeson and moderated by Beyond Zero Emissions CEO Heidi Lee.


October 29-30
All Energy Australia

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, incoming Clean Energy Council CEO Jackie Trad and Pacific Green CEO Joel Alexander are among the speakers at this year’s All Energy event in Melbourne.


November 5
National Press Club address

Outgoing ASIC Chair Joe Longo will address the National Press Club on “Open for opportunity: Taking charge of the future of our financial markets” at this Canberra event.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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