Closing the roadmap gap


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Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Risk management redux
  • No new inertia market
  • Call for 'use it or lose it' gas provision

Getting the 'least cost' transition back on track

The gap between Australia's renewable energy roadmap and the business decisions required to deliver it appears to be widening, say energy leaders, amid cost blowouts in wind, hydro and transmission.

Rising bills for developers and customers are hitting hard and few people have anything positive to say about the Integrated System Plan (ISP) that Australia is relying on to deliver its emissions reduction commitments. The ISP, produced every two years by the Australian Energy Market Operator has become a foundational document informing transmission investment decisions, regulatory processes, and state and territory energy planning. Yesterday, the Australian Energy Market Commission launched a package of work designed to ensure the electricity planning framework keeps up with the energy transition. The AEMC also published a paper clarifying how jurisdictional policies and system costs are treated in the ISP, with submissions due by November 6.

In this dynamic operating environment, course corrections are being made as a sector that is adept at managing risk starts to rethink the investment and policy needed to make energy cheaper.

Expert view

“This is about reducing costs for Australia going forwards, that's what the actual modelling says.

This is not something we can get away from. The question is just how do we manage as best we can. Risk and variability are part of the DNA of energy investing."

Joel Gilmore
GM Policy, Iberdrola Australia and Associate Professor, Griffith University

No new, real-time trading market for inertia

Rejecting a rule change request by the Clean Energy Council, the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) decided a new operational procurement mechanism for inertia was unlikely to bring net benefits for the consumer.

The industry body had recommended a market-based mechanism to drive investment in technologies that would reward renewables for controlling the rate of change of frequency, which is key to keeping the system stable during major disturbance events, such as the loss of a large, ageing coal generator.

But the commission is required to act in the long-term interests of consumers and found that existing measures, strengthened last year by the a rule called the improving security frameworks for the energy transition rule (ISF rule), to be “sufficient and flexible to manage the grid’s stability efficiently for the foreseeable future”.

"Our analysis shows that under current conditions, the estimated $5 - $10 million in upfront costs, plus millions more in ongoing operation, would far outweigh the modest expected benefits.
We are not waiting to act. We are acting by ensuring recently made security reforms, which include trialling new technologies and ways of providing system security services, have time to be fully rolled out before we introduce another layer of complexity.”
Anna Collyer
AEMC Chair

Synchronous condensers, gas plants with clutches (allowing turbines to operate as condensers), and grid forming inverters are being installed to meet system strength standards, the commission said, with these assets found to be delivering inertia as a substantial co-benefit at minimal marginal cost to consumers.

The ISF rule was made in 2024 in response to rule change requests from Hydro Tasmania and Delta Electricity. Each proposed operational procurement mechanisms to value, procure and schedule essential system services (ESS) to ensure enough security services were available and scheduled, averting market interventions.

Inertia is a power system service that acts like a shock absorber and helps maintain the grid’s stability.

Catch Up

Capital

Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) and South Korea’s LS Electric signed a major agreement to develop new integrated battery storage systems for data centres and other large buildings. The two companies will begin by selling joint products, offering data centre operators integrated switchgear and power management to control and distribute the power for running critical systems without interruption. Over time, they aim to expand the partnership globally to identify efficiency gains across thousands of sites to make energy-hungry AI more sustainable.

Viva Energy’s (ASX: VEA) newly commissioned Karratha facility for storing Shell products cuts over 1000km of sea transportation of product via the previous circuitous journey from Singapore to Fremantle and then up to the Pilbara, and eliminates more than 450,000km of annual road freight. An added bonus from shortening the supply chain for the mining and gas industry was a reduction in associated transport emissions by cutting the distance travelled by around 30%, General Manager of Resources and Lubricants Kerry Watson said.


Projects

Equis’ $950 million Bell Bay Wind Farm will receive Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) support, marking Tasmania’s first project to be backed by the revenue safety net program. Tasmania negotiated 4TW hours of scheme capacity, equivalent to around 1,200MW of new renewable energy generation, under the Renewable Energy Transformation Agreement (RETA) signed with the federal government this year. “Securing this first scheme project demonstrates that Tasmania’s clean energy potential is being recognised at a national level,” Energy Minister Nick Duigan said.

Overall, CIS Tender 4 was highly competitive, drawing 84 bids representing 25.6GW, more than four times the 6GW target, Energy Minister Chris Bowen said. The 20 successful projects will provide 6.6GW of new renewable generation capacity by the end of 2030.

Edify Energy, for example, was awarded an agreement for the 300MW Smoky Creek and 300MW Guthrie’s Gap Solar Power Stations, co-located near Biloela in central Queensland, and the 300MW Nowingi Solar Power Station in northwest Victoria. These landmark projects will bring further capacity to the Queensland and Victorian markets, including 900MW/3,600MWh of battery storage. Shared community and First Nations benefits for the Biloela and Carwarp regions were estimated at more than $28 million, plus more than $1.5 billion for local suppliers and businesses over the life of the projects.

Registrations opened for CIS Tender 7, targeting 5GW of NEM generation capacity. ASL said projects that were unsuccessful in CIS Tender 4 are “able, and encouraged” to participate.


Policy

Former industry minister Ed Husic called for “use it or lose it” provision for gas to prevent foreign countries such as Japan from onselling Australian gas, as the latest bailout package for a big energy user reignited calls for a domestic gas reserve advocacy. (ABC)

Tasmanian Energy Minister Nick Duigan says the state should not be penalised for already producing green aluminium. Duigan called for governments to work together to secure the future of the Bell Bay industrial precinct and Bell Bay Aluminium, which he said was one of Australia’s greenest smelters. But there is uncertainty over the smelter’s eligibility to receive support through the federal government’s Green Aluminium Production Credit. “Bell Bay Aluminium is a key part of Australia’s low emissions manufacturing future and deserves the same support as mainland smelters,” the state’s Industry Minister Felix Ellis said.


Regulation

Former Queensland Chief Scientist and noted ecologist Hugh Possingham has weighed into the conversation about the land area needed for Australia's energy transition, saying the existing Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conversation Act (EPBC Act) was not working as intended or needed. The EPBC Act has been slated for reform for many years, with Environment Minister Murray Watt making its revision a priority during this term. (The Australian)


Technology

China's apparent cost advantage in carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) could reshape industrial competitiveness as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism takes effect from 2026. European power generators face carbon capture costs around US$300 per tonne that render most projects uneconomic, according to a Wood Mackenzie analysis. Meanwhile, China claims to build equivalent facilities more than twice as fast as European and American counterparts with CCUS costs of roughly US$30-40/tCO2.

A new process makes it easier to recycle the chemical elements used to make the strongest permanent magnets, such as those found in hard drives and EV motors. The process rapidly heats demagnetized waste placed on carbon paper in the presence of chlorine gas. The separation process relies on simple chemistry — differences in the temperatures at which various metals readily react with chlorine. (IEEE Spectrum)


Climate

The data-driven Carbon Brief website fact-checked what the UK Climate Change Act does – and does not – mean for the country, correcting inaccurate comments as the UK’s political right veers further away from the previous consensus on climate action. “It was the Tories who wrote it and it was the Labour Party who accepted it – and all parties supported it,” Lord Deben points out.


Research

Providing fresh insights for policymakers on improving well-being and productivity, a study by researchers including Xinxiong Wu of Wollongong University examines the influence of energy poverty on work-life balance — a critical yet often overlooked dimension.


Random

Most Reform UK voters support investment in renewable energy, polling by YouGov shows, suggesting some politicians have grossly misjudged public opinion on net zero efforts. (Independent)

What's On

October 15
The Energy Q&A with the NEM Review panel

NEM Review panel Tim Nelson, Paula Conboy, Ava Hancock and Phil Hirschhorn will speak at this webinar moderated by The Energy Advisory Board Member Anna Hancock.


October 16-17
IGCC Summit 2025: Decoding the transition

Generation Investment Management Founding Partner and former US Vice President Al Gore will headline this Sydney event from the Investor Group on Climate Change. Other speakers include NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel, ARENA Associate Director Tanya Hodgeson and Net Zero Economy Agency CEO David Shankey.


October 22
2025 Order of Australia Lecture

Emeritus Professor Mark Howden will deliver this year’s Order of Australia keynote - Go hard or go slow on climate change? What’s in the national interest? - at this Canberra event.


October 23
Understanding Australia's 2035 Net Zero numbers

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean will speak at this UTS event in Sydney, in conversation with Professor Stuart White, Director of the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures.


October 27
The real costs of the transition

Powerlink CEO Paul Simshauser will speak at this lunchtime webinar from The Energy, alongside Aurecon Managing Director, Energy (Australia) Paul Gleeson and moderated by Beyond Zero Emissions CEO Heidi Lee.


October 29-30
All Energy Australia

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, incoming Clean Energy Council CEO Jackie Trad and Pacific Green CEO Joel Alexander are among the speakers at this year’s All Energy event in Melbourne.


November 5
National Press Club address

Outgoing ASIC Chair Joe Longo will address the National Press Club on “Open for opportunity: Taking charge of the future of our financial markets” at this Canberra event.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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