profile

The Energy

Sizing up the syncon rush

Published 4 days ago • 7 min read

​.​

Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Syncon crunch time
  • Victoria eyes transmission turnaround
  • Spanish blackout lessons for Australia

Australia's big syncon bet

Billions of dollars of regulated investment slated for the grid in the next five years will go on synchronous condensers — large rotating machines that provide grid stability and system strength services to complement the increase in renewables inherent to the energy transition.

The problem is, writes CutlerMerz consultant Cillian Barry, Australia’s transmission companies are all seeking them around the same time, and they face global competition.

Expert view

“This level of syncon demand in FY2030 represents a non-trivial proportion of global manufacturer’s annual syncon production capacity.

One country requiring 19 syncons over a 2-year period will materially stress global production capacity. This raises a matter around how realistic it is that Australia will be able to command this large a slice of the global market, and if it can, what the price premium will be.”

Cillian Barry
Consultant, CutlerMerz

Transgrid, which is still flagging 10 syncons by 2029/30, must also consider the currently scheduled closure of the Eraring coal-fired power station in 2027.

Asked whether any new synchronous condensers would be available for system strength prior to this date, a spokesperson for Transgrid told The Energy:

“The timing for commissioning the synchronous condensers will be confirmed when we complete the competitive market processes in the coming months.”

Are grid-forming batteries the answer?

Not according to the system-strength plans of the major transmission providers. Transgrid says they’ll be needed on top of the already slated syncons:

“The second tranche of five synchronous condensers is vital to facilitate the retirement of NSW coal generators. Our analysis identifies that over time, grid forming batteries will be used to provide additional system strength required, on top of the base provided by Transgrid's synchronous condensers.”

​

D'Ambrosio eyes transmission turnaround

Lily D’Ambrosio, Victoria’s climate change and energy minister since 2014, says the state is finally getting on top of intractable problems in guiding major new transmission projects through planning to final investment decisions.

It’s no small claim. Long delays in progressing the state’s Western Renewables Link (WRL) and VNI West transmission projects amid entrenched community hostility are a large part of the reason clean energy investors have become disenchanted with the garden state.

D’Ambrosio attributed the “big turnaround” to the creation of VicGrid, a state agency which officially takes over transmission planning for Victoria from the Australian Energy Market Operator next month.

​

Getting to the bottom of the Spain-Portugal blackout

Six months on from the blackout that left most of Spain and Portugal without power for hours, an expert panel tasked with investigating the causes delivered a blow-by-blow account of the system conditions and response on the day.

The panel, convened by the European network of electricity transmission system operators (ENTSO-E), includes experts from transmission system operators affected by the outage.

It said the outage was “the most severe blackout incident on the European power system in over 20 years,” and the first ever of its kind involving a cascading series of disconnections of generation components along with voltage increases.

The investigation is one of many already completed and underway, but ENTSO-E said it had faced “significant difficulties” in obtaining high-quality data from several Spanish distribution system operators and generation companies. “These delays slowed the initial, more ambitious timeline of the investigation,” it said.

The panel will not make findings on the root causes until the final report, expected in Q1 2026.

Expert view

“The first phase of the ENTSO-E investigation is another step towards understanding the events leading to the system black event, along with the work that needs to be done to avoid this in the future. It highlights how quickly things can go wrong when voltage and frequency protection system operation can lead to cascading loss of generation.

More than 2.5GW of generation tripped off within two minutes leading to the system black. Not all the reasons for the trips are known, which highlights the operational challenge of power control systems. The fact that the next phase of the investigation won’t be released until next year demonstrates the technical complexity underlying an event of this magnitude.

Since the 2016 blackout in South Australia, our management of major grid disturbances has improved significantly. This doesn’t mean we can rest on our laurels. Rather, it means that we need to invest heavily in the front-end-engineering-design of our future grid to be able to operate reliably through unplanned events that lead to voltage or frequency disturbances. It needs to be a national effort, including coordinated research, testing and reform to deliver a secure, renewable-powered system. Without an R&D and testing facility, and investment commensurate with the scale of our national grid's transformation, our electricity system will be vulnerable to future shocks.”

Dani Alexander
CEO, UNSW Energy Institute

​

Catch Up

Capital

​

Prices and volumes of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) are spiking as the October 31 reporting deadline nears, RepuTex said. The analysis firm said year-to-date spot volumes were now 20% higher than the equivalent period in 2024, while total traded volumes (inclusive of derivatives) have surpassed 32 million, 27% ahead of the same time last year.

Australian climate-tech company OpenSolar closed US$20m in equity financing to further invest in its AI technology that is used by solar installers for proposals.

French investment firm Ardian agreed to buy Irish utility Energia from US investment firm I Squared in a deal worth US$2.9 billion. Ardian said Energia’s “pioneering approach to combining hyperscale data centre development with new renewable energy generation” would unlock growth opportunities. (Irish Times)

Projects

​

Experts called for an independent assessment of Snowy 2.0 in the wake of its latest cost blowout. Snow Hydro on Friday said the project was 67% complete, but it would once again have to reassess costs — the project is already $10 billion over the initial estimate of $2 billion. Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the news was “disappointing” and while the project must be delivered “it must come at value for the taxpayer”. Hydropower supporter and former PM Malcolum Turnbull said while less ambitious projects would be less likely to blow their budgets, Snowy 2.0 was “a mighty prize at a time when the need for long-duration storage is more obvious than ever”. (AFR) (ABC) (Renew Economy)

Meanwhile, Transgrid marked the start of construction on the $4.9 billion, 365km HumeLink transmission line that is expected to help unlock the full capacity of Snowy 2.0. Transgrid said it now had access and easement agreements either in place or agreed in principle with 98.9% of private landholders affected by the project.

Policy

​

Signing off on a five-year career at AGL, Markus Brokhof warned of the risks of forced extensions of coal-fired power. “You cannot come two years before you are trying to close the power stations, and come back to AGL and say, ‘Oh, now you have to extend.’ We will not be able to do it because we already run the power station on a risk-based maintenance approach. You are better off building a gas-fired power generation unit, or a wind farm and a battery together, in order to cope with this.” (The Australian)

Regulation

​

Now that Victoria has stepped up rebates for businesses to install solar, Victoria’s Essential Services Commission is calling for feedback from participants and industry on the administration requirements. The regulator is also offering a streamlined accreditation pathway for installers who are already part of the Victorian Energy Upgrades program. Feedback is due by October 16.

A coalition of US solar energy companies, labour unions, nonprofit groups and homeowners are suing the US Environmental Protection Agency over its termination of $7 billion in grants intended to help low- and moderate-income families install solar panels on their homes.The plaintiffs allege the EPA illegally pulled program without congressional approval. (NYT)

Technology

​

French transmission system operator RTE released a map showing flows of electricity through its network in real-time. The map also shows battery connection capacities.

People

​

AGL appointed former EnergyAustralia executive and current AEMO non-executive director Elizabeth (Betsy) Donaghey to its board, while John Pollaers and Mark Twidell were re-elected at the company’s AGM.

Telly Maragopoulos stepped permanently into the role of Head of Learning & Development at Alinta Energy after serving in an interim capacity in the role for 4 months.

Dr Stuart Minchin was appointed CEO and Director of Meteorology of the Bureau of Meteorology.

What's On

October 7-8​
NEM Development Conference 2025

EnergyAustralia Managing Director Mark Collette and Powerlink CEO Paul Simshauser will headline this Brisbane event hosted by Griffith University and UQ, which will also feature Queensland Farmers Federation CEO Jo Sheppard, NEM Review panel Chair Tim Nelson, Victoria Energy Policy Centre Director Bruce Mountain, University of Sydney Professor of Law Penny Crossley, Iberdrola GM Regulation & Energy Policy Joel Gilmore and Global Roam CEO Paul McArdle.

October 15​
​The Energy Q&A with the NEM Review panel

NEM Review panel Tim Nelson, Paula Conboy, Ava Hancock and Phil Hirschhorn will speak at this webinar moderated by The Energy Advisory Board Member Anna Hancock.

October 16-17​
IGCC Summit 2025: Decoding the transition

Generation Investment Management Founding Partner and former US Vice President Al Gore will headline this Sydney event from the Investor Group on Climate Change. Other speakers include NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel, ARENA Associate Director Tanya Hodgeson and Net Zero Economy Agency CEO David Shankey.

October 23
​Understanding Australia's 2035 Net Zero numbers

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean will speak at this UTS event in Sydney, in conversation with Professor Stuart White, Director of the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures.

October 27
​The real costs of the transition

Powerlink CEO Paul Simshauser will speak at this lunchtime webinar from The Energy, alongside Aurecon Director of Energy and Resources Paul Gleeson and moderated by Beyond Zero Emissions CEO Heidi Lee.

October 29-30
​All Energy Australia

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, incoming Clean Energy Council CEO Jackie Trad and Pacific Green CEO Joel Alexander are among the speakers at this year’s All Energy event in Melbourne.

Level 1, 60 Martin Place, Sydney, NSW 2000
​Unsubscribe · Preferences​

Forwarded this email? Subscribe here​

​

The Energy

Cut through the noise, harness The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

Read more from The Energy

Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy Week, your chance to catch up on this week's most important energy news. Prefer to listen? Get The Energy Week on your favourite podcast platform. THE ENERGY WEEK • EPISODE 4 Queensland hits pause 04:26 MORE INFO This week's top energy news Attention turned to Queensland this week with a federal government bailout for Glencore’s Mount Isa copper smelter, and the release of the state’s new energy roadmap. Policy Queensland Energy Minister David Janetzki...

24 minutes ago • 3 min read

. Hey Reader, in today's edition: Risk management redux No new inertia market Call for 'use it or lose it' gas provision Getting the 'least cost' transition back on track The gap between Australia's renewable energy roadmap and the business decisions required to deliver it appears to be widening, say energy leaders, amid cost blowouts in wind, hydro and transmission. Rising bills for developers and customers are hitting hard and few people have anything positive to say about the Integrated...

1 day ago • 8 min read

. Hey Reader, in today's edition: Singapore's superpower support Battery frenzy explained Gas market gripes Regulatory groundwork for exporting sunshine Australia and Singapore have inked a Cross-Border Electricity Trade Framework to unlock private sector finance and catalyse regional cross-border electricity trading. The framework, announced as part of a deepening of the existing Comprehensive Strategic Partnership dubbed CSP 2.0, will advance the ASEAN Power Grid — a project to integrate...

2 days ago • 9 min read