NEM review: now for the questions


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • NEM review hopes high
  • Building their own power supply to strike gold
  • ARENA's latest solar injection

Pain-free delivery, now for the questions

The NEM review panel yesterday delivered their draft report on what could see a major shakeup of the energy market and the transition more broadly with nary a negative headline.

They are probably still to come as the energy sector fully digests a series of recommendations that if implemented will see winners and losers. But they will be tempered by the more than 200 stakeholders the panel took the time to consult with before coming to conclusions. You can catch up on our coverage here, and in yesterday’s special edition newsletter.

Speaking at The Energy’s webinar, Tim Nelson emphasised the ‘draft’ in the report’s title and expressed his hope that the final reforms will be implemented as a whole.

“There are a whole bunch of questions in this report that go to levels of detail for some of the draft recommendations that we seek your feedback on. We think that getting your feedback is critical for crossing the t's and dotting the i's on some of these very important issues, because they are complicated and getting them right requires your input.
"As you hear me talking about the recommendations, what I hope you'll see is that they come together as a comprehensive package of reforms across three timeframes. In isolation, each of them won't deliver as much benefit as if they are implemented collectively. And that goes to the overarching objective that the panel has had, which is to provide an enduring framework that supports efficient investment, efficient operating decisions and efficient risk management.”

Expert view

“Notably, the panel’s approach is defined not only by what it proposes, but also by what it deliberately avoids, which is equally important such as:

  • Avoid introducing centralised capacity or physical ahead markets - previously labelled as the CoalKeeper.
  • Avoid locational marginal pricing.
  • Do not create distribution-level wholesale energy markets. Instead, enable distributed energy resources to participate in regional markets using dynamic operating envelopes and network tariffs to manage local constraints.

The review has aligned to what the market needs: accelerating investment signals and valuing the increasingly important consumer contributions in the clean energy transition.

Commercial and industrial consumer participation and flexibility services is a win-win in lowering energy bills while enabling the energy transition in a meaningful way that is a benefit to all energy consumers.

The longer term out-of-market reserves service was a key recommendation of Nexa and will be a critical tool to provide energy ministers the insurance needed to keep the lights on as coal plants shut down.

Like other major policy reforms, the success of this review hinges on its effective implementation. We urge state and federal ministers to direct market bodies to cease any work that does not align with the urgent imperative to accelerate the energy transition.

The industry cannot afford to be stalled by endless reviews that consume valuable resources and delay progress. It’s time to shift focus toward actionable reforms that deliver tangible outcomes for consumers and the energy system.”

Stephanie Bashir
Principal, Nexa Advisory

Expert view

“The panel has cleared their first major hurdle: recommending changes with enough ambition to improve the energy transition in the coming decade, but not so much ambition their process ends up in the "NEM reform graveyard". There are no big surprises; the report puts meat on the bones of ideas the panel has been socialising for months, with a suite of measures to meet investability challenges in the wholesale market alongside complementary recommendations for other parts of the supply chain.

Their Recommendation 2 provides a good starting point for leveraging the value of the demand side, but with one notable gap.

The panel has largely taken its cues on the spot market from incumbent market participants, concluding the current arrangements mostly work (at least from an operational perspective) and suggesting no major changes. Whether that conclusion holds or not, leaning in to supply-side stakeholder views makes sense strategically. If the panel is to be consistent with this approach to evidence and engagement though, they must now lean in to consumer and consumer advocate voices on what is needed on the demand side; incumbent businesses are, categorically, not the source of that truth.

That also means the panel needs to look beyond the current and planned tools for demand side participation, and explore what business models will work to genuinely co-optimise the demand side and supply side. The panel's draft report suggests the pending IPRR and VSR reforms as the only tool for leveraging household flexible demand. But the more details come to light on the IPRR and VSR - notably the inability to provide demand response and cementing retailers who have (at best) little interest in flexible demand as the gatekeepers for participation - the less effective it looks for supporting household flexible demand.

Solutions that can actually work for the demand side will be critical for the effectiveness, and consumer social licence, of the panel's final recommendations, and after 20 years working on flexible demand I think the Panel has nailed it with this working proposition (Recommendation 2B): "...each resource should be able to choose the most suitable pathway given its characteristics." To meet this proposition, the panel's Final report should recommend ensuring households have the same pathway to flexible demand that large energy users do through the Wholesale Demand Response Mechanism.“

Craig Memery
Senior Adviser Energy, Justice and Equity Centre

Building their own power supply to strike gold

The annual Diggers & Dealers mining industry bash in Kalgoorlie was founded on gold more than 30 years ago and it’s that cohort’s turn to shine with energy transition minerals in the doldrums price-wise and gold on a bull run.

But even the most diehard net-zero critics need electricity.

Catch Up

Capital

South Australia-based solar panel manufacturer Tindo was allocated $34.5 million under the $1 billion federal Solar Sunshot Program. Tindo, Australia’s only solar module manufacturer, will use the funding to upgrade its Mawson Lakes facility, scaling annual output from 20 MW to 180 MW. The project also includes a feasibility study for a future gigafactory capable of producing 1GW of solar panels a year.

"When the Solar Sunshot Program was first announced back in March last year, I immediately took a delegation to China to have a look at what the best in the world was in terms of manufacturing solar components. I came away incredibly impressed but also confident that this kind of thing could be done in Australia. And walking around the factory today and seeing the quality control and the impressive panels that are produced here, the high efficiency, I'm absolutely convinced that Australia can play right at the top of the game against the Chinese manufactured panels.”
Darren Miller
ARENA CEO

ARENA also awarded $11 million to support feasibility studies for upstream solar manufacturing including $5 million to Townsville-based Solquartz and $1.3 million to Energus for a feasibility study for a production facility at AGL’s Hunter Energy Hub, and $4.7 million to Stellar PV for its feasibility study for a 2GW polysilicon facility near Townsville.

Australia’s minimal restrictions on AI and strong institutional frameworks should further sustain strong demand in Australian data centres, ratings agency Moody’s said, in a report forecasting capacity could double by 2030. However, no new large-scale data centres can presently connect to the distribution networks in the inner city and Western Sydney availability zones, it said, because of constraints within the network.

“The networks, which usually connect on a “first-come, first-served” basis, are now moving toward rationalising power. Applicants are being assessed on criteria such as sponsor track record, program achievability and anchor tenants – a process that should favour high-quality sponsors.”
Moody's Ratings

Projects

The Australian arm of US battery developer Pacific Green signed a 1.5GWh BESS offtake agreement with ZEN Energy which it said significantly accelerated its route to market for its Australian project portfolio.


Policy

The Productivity Commission said Australia needed to improve the state of data access, including for energy data, in order to unlock untapped value. Its interim report to Treasurer Jim Chalmers on harnessing data and digital technology called out the Consumer Data Right (CDR) in energy as being “far from mature” with greater data sharing needed to deliver productivity gains. It recommended standardised data transfers and industry-led basic data exports operate alongside CDR.

The AFR editorial called for Labor’s productivity roundtable to deliver the Graeme Samuel recommended one-stop shop for environmental approvals.

“The extraordinary blowout in the cost of NSW’s first renewable energy zone near Dubbo in the state’s central west (from an original $650 million costing to an estimate now of $5.5 billion) shows the urgent need to put downwards pressure on power prices, which should start with streamlining approvals to bring new generation online as fast as possible.”

The Australian Workers Union welcomed the $135 million state and federal government bailout package for critical minerals producer Nyrstar, but said Australia needed a better approach than “playing whack-a-mole every time there’s a crisis”.

“China is spending more on propping up its manufacturing sector than it spends on defence. Either we let them undercut our operations into oblivion, or we step up with a strategic national approach. We need to develop a long-term, national strategy to retain our smelters so they can thrive in the future when we get our act together on energy costs.”
Paul Farrow
AWU National Secretary

Environment Victoria called on the Victorian government to prioritise the roll out of the SEC’s one stop shop services to the 10 towns affected by Solstice Energy’s decision to switch off their gas. “Installers need to offer competitive quotes and help people access the generous Victorian Energy Upgrades incentives that are available,” Kat Lucas-Healey, senior climate and energy advisor with the advocacy group, said.

Solar energy grants worth US$7 billion look set to be cancelled by the US Environment Protection Authority. (New York Times)


Regulation

Energy Consumers Australia, supported by a report from Baringa Partners, argued for a revision of the role of the wholesale Market Price Cap (MPC) in its submission to the AEMC’s 2026 Reliability Settings Review. The Baringa report found the MPC, rising to $21,500/MWh in FY28 with the aim of incentivising investment in new capacity, would add $4.7 billion in additional costs to consumers. It says the NEM review should consider the role of the MPC alongside the suite of measures in scope to provide more targeted price signals over operational and investment timeframes.

Ausgrid’s Community Power Network concept is up for discussion in a new paper from the Australian Energy Regulator as it considers whether to let the network include the costs of the program in its future revenue allowance, and also bypass ring-fencing requirements. Feedback is due by September 16.

The behavioural economics team of the government reviewed work by the Australian Energy Regulator to help consumers navigate the energy market. It found the percentage of Energy Made Easy visitors who arrived at the website because of a prompt on their energy bills jumped from 7% in August to 23% by November 2023. After behaviourally informed changes to the site, users were also more likely to share their meter data, the quickest way to get to a results page with the most accurate results (from 39% to 70%).


Technology

Latin America’s first green-hydrogen-powered fuel cell truck hit the road in Chile. (IEEE Spectrum)

Power is the “single biggest constraint” for Amazon Web Services with more demand than capacity, Amazon president Andy Jassy said on a company earnings call. (Latitude Media)


People

Powerlink CEO and Griffith University Professor Paul Simshauser said he would step down from Queensland’s state-owned transmission company in mid-November. Simshauser will do a stint of university research before returning to the private sector.

Solar specialist Nigel Morris joined the Smart Energy Council as Chief Strategy Officer.

Peter Cook, a lifelong fixer of failed or stalled projects, won the Diggers & Dealers GJ Stokes Memorial Award, which recognises a person who has made a significant contribution to the mining industry.


Research

A lack of consumer trust in the organisations providing and delivering demand side flexibility services and automation means more than financial incentives are needed to drive uptake, according to new research that also considered Australia’s Consumer Energy Resources Roadmap. The UK-based researchers said building trust required users to retain a sense of agency in decision-making, something some had seen reduced after investing in solar for their home.

What's On

August 7-8
2025 ACCC/AER Regulatory Conference

Former chair of UK energy regulator Ofgem Professor Martin Cave, AEMC Commissioner Sally McMahon, Treasury Assistant Secretary - Competition Taskforce Anna Barker, Essential Services Commission Chair Gerard Brody, and Marinus Link Chair Sandra Gamble are among the speakers at this event in Brisbane.


August 11
RE-Alliance Briefing for Industry and Government

Bridget Ryan, author of the RE-Alliance report Retirement age renewables – delivering for Australian communities, will discuss required management responses at this online event.


August 13-14
2025 Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit

Victoria’s Minister for Climate Action, Energy and Resources Lily D’Ambrosio, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Carbon Market Institute Chair Dr Kerry Schott, Co-Founder and CEO of CORE Markets Chris Halliwell, Investor Group on Climate Change CEO Rebecca Mikula-Wright and BHP Australia President Geraldine Slattery will speak at this event in Melbourne.


August 14-15
First Nations Clean Energy Symposium

Government, industry, academics and regulators will join over 200 First Nations leaders from around Australia at this event on Kabi Kabi country (Sunshine Coast).


August 18
National Press Club

Productivity Commission Chair Danielle Wood will speak on the “Growth imperative: How to fix our productivity problem” at this event in Canberra.


August 26-27
Australian Renewable Heat Conference

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, ARENA investment manager Peter Haenke, and AGL sustainability expert Brendan Weinert will speak at this event in Sydney.


August 26-28
2025 New Zealand Wind Energy Summit

NZ Minister of Energy Simon Watts, Secretary-General of the World Wind Energy Association Stefan Gsänger, Global Wind Energy Council CEO Ben Backwell, Commerce Commission Chair Dr John Small, and Transpower Executive General Manager - Future Grid John Clarke headline this event in Wellington, NZ.


September 1-3
Farming Forever National Summit

Farmers for Climate Action CEO Natalie Collard, Rewiring Aeteroa CEO Mike Casey, NSW EnergyCo Chair Paul Binsted, ANU Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions Professor Mark Howden and NAB Chief Climate Officer Jacqui Fox will speak at this Farmers for Climate Action event in Canberra.


RESULTS SEASON

AGL Energy
August 13
AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) CEO Damien Nicks and CFO Gary Brown will release FY25 results and host a webcast.

Origin Energy
August 14
Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) will release FY25 results to the market and host a webcast.

Ampol
August 18
Petroleum refiner and fuel distributor Ampol (ASX: ALD) will announce first-half results.

Woodside Energy
August 19
Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) CEO Meg O’Neill and CFO Graham Tiver will release half-year results and brief investors.

Santos
August 20
Santos (ASX: STO) will release half-year results.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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