Gladstone's $7.8 billion opportunity


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Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Gladstone's industrial future at risk
  • Origin calls out failed policy
  • RWE axes Kent Offshore Wind Farm

Beyond coal, or not

Australia’s climate target fails to give industry or communities the certainty they need to forge a new industrial future, according to new research on Queensland’s coal heartland, and conflicting state-federal policy signals are further eroding investor confidence.

While the federal government has made record investments in clean energy, the Queensland Energy Roadmap’s continued reliance on fossil fuel generation is out of step with market dynamics and the demands of Gladstone’s biggest power users, Beyond Zero Emissions’ latest regional insights report Powering Up Gladstone found.

A dedicated Renewable Energy Industrial Precinct could unlock $7.8 billion in new investment, create 11,000 local jobs, generate an additional $2 billion in annual revenue, and future-proof existing manufacturing. Major players including Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) and Orica (ASX: ORI) have set bold emissions targets backed by renewable power purchase agreements.

But only 12% of the renewable generation capacity needed is currently under construction, and just 14% of the required energy storage capacity is underway. Transmission upgrades planned to date will not be sufficient to electrify existing industries and enable new green exports, BZE warned.

Expert view

“Gladstone already has all the ingredients it needs to transition to net zero — without coming at a cost to its skilled workforce and thriving local industries. Gladstone’s path to net zero is not straightforward, and real challenges exist, like the historical disconnect between industrial growth, community wellbeing and social infrastructure. At the same time, we know a fair and inclusive transition is in reach.”

Meredith England
Climate-KIC Systems Innovation Director

Policy for a functioning energy market

Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) called for urgent policy reform for Australia’s malfunctioning electricity and gas markets amid a sluggish transition.

“We believe the transition is likely to be slower and result in greater volatility than previously anticipated, with energy security concerns now at the forefront,” the gentailer said, releasing its second Climate Transition Action Plan to shareholders.

CEO Frank Calabria told the annual general meeting supportive and coordinated government policies and targets were essential to optimally structure the energy system and provide the market with the confidence to invest in the transition to net zero by 2050.

“Current policy settings in both electricity and gas markets are no longer delivering the required outcomes for the market or customers, and reform is urgently needed. There are a number of key policy reviews currently underway, including the Gas Market Review and the National Electricity Market review. We believe these are crucial opportunities for governments to establish enduring frameworks that provide the right signals to invest and unlock supply, minimise the cost burden on customers, and facilitate the achievement of emissions goals.
With the cost of the energy transition in stark focus amid persistent cost of living pressures across the economy, we have strongly supported electrification programs that help to reduce energy bills and emissions for both households and businesses. It is essential these initiatives now consider how renters, low-income households, and regional communities can also access the benefits of electrification.”
Frank Calabria
Origin CEO

Giving it skin in the game, Origin’s Australia Pacific LNG arm is a leading source of gas supply for Australia’s east coast market, delivering around a quarter of its total sales volumes to domestic energy retailers, power generators and manufacturers.

Origin Chair Scott Perkins said the agreement with the NSW Government to extend the operations of Australia’s largest coal-fired power station — Origin's Eraring — until August 2027 “remains unchanged”, and Origin will continue to assess the market requirements over time.

“Meanwhile we continue to invest in the maintenance of Eraring to maximise its availability given the important role it plays in supplying and stabilising the NSW power system,” Perkins said. “Ultimately, the closure of Eraring will materially contribute to our emissions reduction plans.”

Expert view

Keeping an ageing coal station open that is on its last legs is not responsible governing. Every extra year Eraring stays online increases the financial and operational risks to NSW consumers. Commercial viability and reliability are two separate things. Consumers in NSW will be paying for the unreliability of these coal fire power stations as we saw last summer.

Nexa Advisory is calling on governments and market participants to mobilise the massive pipeline of clean energy projects waiting for approval and investment in NSW, including 44GW of large-scale solar and wind, and 16GW of battery storage. If the government doesn’t do this, its Plan B isn’t Eraring – it will be gas, which comes at a significant cost to energy consumers.”

Stephanie Bashir
Principal, Nexa Advisory

Catch Up

Capital

Germany’s RWE ceased development of its 2GW Kent Offshore Wind Farm in Gippsland, binning its feasibility licence. “This decision follows a review of the project’s competitiveness in current market conditions as well as ongoing uncertainties around supply chain costs and the future design of the auction framework,” the developer said.


Projects

The full suite of project documents for NSW Roadmap Tender Round 7 have been released including the Firming Supply Project Development Agreement (PDA), Firming Supply Long-Term Energy Service Agreement (LTESA), Demand Response LTESA and Tripartite Deed ahead of Thursday’s ASL Webinar and Q&A session.

Tasmanian Energy Minister Nick Duigan rolled out the red carpet for executives from Malaysia’s Gamuda, which is investing $2 billion in the state. Gamuda recently announced its partnership with Tasmanian farmers and local consultancy Alternate Path to co-develop the landholder-led Cellars Hill Wind Farm and the Weasel Solar Farm projects.


Policy

A federal deal with Western Australia could cut the state’s environmental approvals to under 50 days. Environment Minister Murray Watt, in Perth for discussions with Premier Roger Cook, told reporters a bilateral agreement would remove the need to duplicate assessments and approvals at the state and federal level. “What is most likely is that projects that are already in the pipeline and have already been applied for would continue to be processed under the current [Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation] Act … It would be an option for proponents to decide to withdraw an application and reapply and begin again under the new laws if that's what they choose to do,” Watt said.

The federal government’s Strategic Examination of R&D (SERD) is failing vital discovery research, doesn’t propose a coherent solution for research infrastructure, and is not addressing calls to build a more cohesive system, experts warned after the release of six issues papers from the SERD panel. “Rather than leveraging the SERD’s chance to supercharge Australia’s discovery research capability, the nation’s scientists and technologists find ourselves in the dire situation of questioning whether funding currently directed to discovery research is under threat,” Science & Technology Australia President Professor Sharath Sriram said.


Regulation

The Corporate Law Reform Alliance of like-minded professional associations, business groups and academics called for the federal government to establish an independent expert body, similar to the former Corporations and Markets Advisory Committee (CAMAC), to work on streamlining and updating corporations law, offering a potential “tangible breakthrough” on productivity and getting economic growth moving. “Complex and ill-defined regulation not only impacts how organisations are governed. It also makes it more difficult for regulators to administer and courts to enforce,” Alliance spokesperson Pauline Vamos said.


Technology

Australia has an opportunity to develop policies that synchronise data centre expansion with more efficient energy and grid management. Johanna Lim, Research Associate, Strategic Technologies, at the University of Sydney explains how. (The Conversation)


Climate

Greenpeace Brazil projected messages on the Congress building and on buildings across the country to urge delegates at a Pre-COP meeting to end forest destruction by 2030 to keep 1.5°C within sight. Some 86% of people surveyed in 17 countries across five continents said protecting forests was critical in the fight against climate change, a Greenpeace International poll conducted by Opinium found. Country delegations, Indigenous leaders and civil society are in-country ahead of COP30, which begins on November 10.

Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere hit a record high in 2024, and emissions continue to accelerate, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Agency. From 2023 to 2024, the global average concentration of CO2 surged by 3.5 ppm, the largest increase in any one-year span since measurements began in 1957. "What's new — and scary even for climate scientists — is that the rate of increase has accelerated at a time when annual fossil fuels emissions have stayed much the same," said Phil Williamson, honorary professor at the University of East Anglia. (ABC)


People

Sherry Duhe resigned as Chief Financial Officer at Santos, with Lachlan Harris again appointed Acting CFO.

Gareth O’Reilly has been appointed Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of engineering firm Ampcontrol.


Research

McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2025 report says variable energy sources and gas-powered generation will likely dominate new energy supply and new alternative fuels are unlikely to see wide adoption until after 2040. Fossil fuels are projected to retain a large share of the energy mix beyond 2050, with the transition pathway more vulnerable to geopolitical and economic forces than 10 years ago when the Paris Agreement was signed.


Random

The world’s first liquid air energy storage facility is set to power up in 2026. The Highview Power plant, under construction in Manchester, will be able to plug a short gap in power for as many as 480,000 homes, CEO Richard Butland said. (BBC)

What's On

October 16-17
IGCC Summit 2025: Decoding the transition

Generation Investment Management Founding Partner and former US Vice President Al Gore will headline this Sydney event from the Investor Group on Climate Change. Other speakers include NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel, ARENA Associate Director Tanya Hodgeson and Net Zero Economy Agency CEO David Shankey.


October 16
NSW Roadmap Tender Round 7 Webinar

ASL’s General Manager Commercial Thimo Mueller, Strategic Leader Infrastructure and Innovation Syvilla Boon, Principal Advisor Lachlan White, and Policy Manager Jack Kratzat will speak at this online event.


October 22
2025 Order of Australia Lecture

Emeritus Professor Mark Howden will deliver this year’s Order of Australia keynote - Go hard or go slow on climate change? What’s in the national interest? - at this Canberra event.


October 23
Understanding Australia's 2035 Net Zero numbers

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean will speak at this UTS event in Sydney, in conversation with Professor Stuart White, Director of the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures.


October 27
The real costs of the transition

Powerlink CEO Paul Simshauser will speak at this lunchtime webinar from The Energy, alongside Aurecon Managing Director, Energy (Australia) Paul Gleeson and moderated by Beyond Zero Emissions CEO Heidi Lee.


October 29-30
All Energy Australia

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, incoming Clean Energy Council CEO Jackie Trad and Pacific Green CEO Joel Alexander are among the speakers at this year’s All Energy event in Melbourne.


November 5
National Press Club address

Outgoing ASIC Chair Joe Longo will address the National Press Club on “Open for opportunity: Taking charge of the future of our financial markets” at this Canberra event.


November 6
ANU Solar Oration 2025

Merryn York, who has led system design at AEMO, will speak at this Canberra event, following an opening statement by ACT Energy Minister Suzanne Orr.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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