Electricity bills set to drop by 21%


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • New-look DMO
  • Carrying the can for stranded gas
  • Never waste a crisis

New DMO benefits small business

Energy analysts and consumer groups have cautiously welcomed the Australian Energy Regulator’s draft Default Market Offer pricing matrix, which has different breakdowns for time of use or fixed tariffs, and also includes new pricing for the government’s upcoming Solar Sharer Offer of three hours free electricity up to a maximum of 24kWh during the middle of the day.

Small businesses are set to be the biggest winners, with nominal price falls of around 10-15% and up to 21% in some parts of NSW.

The regulator is closely monitoring developments in the conflict between US, Iran and Israel in the Middle East that has sent crude oil and global LNG prices rocketing, but the DMO modelling cut-off date was before the crisis ignited on February 28.

AER Chair Clare Savage said price movements would be factored into the final decision, but even though forward contracts had ticked upwards, they were still well below the cost of contracts in the last DMO.

Expert view

“With overseas gas prices rising quickly in response to the war in Iran, any insulation from gas dependence may help keep electricity bills down. More structural flexibility in the system should mean less chance of the price spikes we saw in 2022. We are in a real-time experiment to see how well the reforms of the last three years protect Australian consumers from big swings in international markets.”

Ben Jefferson
Associate, Energy & Climate Change, Grattan Institute

Carrying the can for stranded gas

At this month’s Energy Consumers Australia conference a group of seven energy experts sat down to be publicly grilled by Australian Energy Market Commissioner Tim Jordan on a "hypothetical future world scenario”.

In that scenario, a mid-sized Australian gas distribution network faced with a shrinking customer base seeks a 40% tariff increase from the regulator. They’re knocked back to 4% a year for the period.

The wide ranging conversation on what might happen in response took in everything from the likelihood of legal challenges against regulated revenue cuts, to the rights of consumers being forced off gas.

This week the rule maker took a step towards strengthening the regulatory framework for gas pipelines to help prevent a real-world scenario where customers left using gas when many others have transitioned are left carrying the can.

Never waste a crisis

At the tail end of this week’s get together of energy networks, NEM review chair Tim Nelson and Iberdrola Australia CEO Paul Simshauser had some wise words for industry leaders navigating a system where states hold the power but aren't all on the same page.

Asked by CutlerMerz managing director Tim Edwards how the transition could be better governed given the big challenges facing the system don't neatly sit in one jurisdiction, Nelson called for industry to get in front of problems.

“If there's one thing that worries me: it's who is accountable at the moment if there is a big problem? And it's that classic Spiderman kind of meme where the three Spidermen are pointing at the other Spidermen.” Instead, Nelson said, the sector needed to do a better job of getting agreement around some common principles.

“I guess my appeal to everyone in the audience today is that it can be convenient to hide behind the fact that, oh, we've got this blurred nature between state and federal and I can't work out who's responsible. The other way of turning it on its head is to accept responsibility for driving the reform process as industry and work on solving problems so that governments don't need to solve them in the first instance.”

Simshauser, who has spent time advising Queensland energy ministers, reminded the audience that it’s ultimately the minister in the state where things go wrong that wears the blame. He added that the sector should accept that some things will work at a national level and others won’t, especially given the states “starting blocks and end games” are all now quite different.

Expert view

“We can all sit here today and agree on energy policy point A is absolutely essential and we need to get on with it. So let’s go and have a talk to the premier. [The premier says] What are you talking about guys? I've got crime over here, education over there. What is this stuff, Paul? Can it wait?

I mean trying to get an energy minister, trying to get some real estate on a busy Cabinet agenda is really, really hard. That's where that saying comes in in our industry: Don't waste a crisis. When a crisis comes up, that's your opportunity to shove as much shit in there and you get the job done. Politicians have to deal with everything and energy is just one thing.”

Paul Simshauser
CEO, Iberdrola Australia

Catch Up

Capital

Australia is more exposed than most advanced economies to diesel price and supply shocks, CommBank head of commodities and sustainable economics Vivek Dhar said calling out Australia’s relatively small reserves and the impact of Brent crude prices that are now expected to rise to US$120 to US$150 per barrel given that the Iran conflict is set to continue longer than originally thought.

Indeed, Australia is the only one of 32 signatories to the IEA treaty on oil reserves that does not maintain 90 days’ worth of oil reserves, and Australia’s failure to comply with the Minimum Stockholding Obligation extends back to 2012.

Iran now sees Persian Gulf area facilities as “direct and legitimate targets”, in a ramping up of the country’s rhetoric that comes after yesterday's Israeli strike on South Pars. An irate US President Donald Trump to warn he will “massively blow up” all of South Pars if Iran attacks Qatar again. Undeterred, Iranian regional governor Eskandar Pasalar said the conflict has escalated into a “full-scale economic war.” Overnight, six nations, including Australian allies Britain, France, Germany and Japan, said they were ready “to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz”.


Policy

NSW has become the first state to ban new coal mines, spelling out the policy in its NSW Coal Industry 2026-50 report, laying out a 25-year vision for coal in NSW. The policy change will see the NSW government prohibit future greenfield coal development; relinquish government-held coal exploration titles; abolish the Strategic Release Framework for coal; and continue to support applications for coal exploration adjacent to existing exploration and mining licenses. The Mining and Energy Union called the ban on new mines “disappointing” but welcomed the report’s provision of clarity for workers.

The federal government is mulling reforms to the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax (PRRT) and introducing a new tax on windfall gas company profits, according to the ABC. A document prepared by the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet (PM&C), asked Treasury to model "new levy options" and also requests options to reform corporate income tax.

Prime minister Anthony Albanese has appointed Anthea Harris, formerly the CEO of the AER and CEO of the Energy Security Board, to a new role as Fuel Supply Taskforce coordinator. Harris will support governments’ work to ensure Australia is, as Albanese put it, “overprepared and quick to respond” to fuel and other challenges stemming from the current Iran conflict. The Taskforce will sit within the Department of the Prime Minister & Cabinet; facilitate coordination on fuel security and supply chain resilience across state, territory and federal governments; update policymakers about the current fuel supply outlook and domestic fuel distribution; and act as a single convening point for fuel supply and forward planning to get fuel to the regions where it’s needed. The appointment was announced during the PM’s extraordinary National Cabinet meeting, at which leaders exhorted Australians to “consider others in need and not to over-buy” concluding that Australia “is in a good position at present and does not have an overall fuel shortage at this time.”

Meanwhile, WA bulk fuel supplier Vibe Petroleum has begun rationing sales of fuel, imposing a limit of 100L of fuel per customer for bulk purchases using external fuel containers. The move affects over 50 service stations across the state.


Projects

The inauguration of northern Victoria’s 108MW Lancaster Solar Farm marks a significant step for European Energy, which has contracted the supply from the farm to Apple under a long-term power purchase agreement. European Energy has a development pipeline of 10GW of solar, onshore wind and battery energy storage system (BESS) projects within Australia.

DCCEEW is inviting comments on the proposed Murchs Corner BESS, a 500MW/2GWh site that will connect to Victoria’s existing 500kV Moorabool to Mortlake transmission line. Comments on the 13ha facility are due by April 1.

Data centre giant AirTrunk has contracted two energy infrastructure firms in a $300 million deal to build a large-scale BESS adjacent to its 320MW/1.28GWh SYD3 data centre, which is being built in western Sydney and is expected to be the Asia-Pacific region’s largest data centre when it goes live next year.

The proposed 780MW Supernode BESS, to be located in Woodstock south of Townsville, has been waved through environmental approvals after a determination that its construction is not a controlled action.

DCCEEW has opened for comment a proposed Robertstown, South Australia BESS, which will comprise a 500MW/2GWh system constructed in two individually financed and contracted stages in support of the existing 500MW PV solar farm. Comment is open until March 31.


Regulation

The AER has published a consultation paper seeking feedback on its draft Retailer of Last Resort (RoLR) guidelines and plan. Changes in this version include updates to cost recovery guidance; an approach to taking up to 72 hours to designate an additional RoLR; and an additional data requirement designed to address “strong concerns” about the quality of customer data provided by failed retailers to RoLRs. Submissions close April 17.

The AEMC released a consultation paper seeking feedback on improving compensation frameworks, which consolidates three previous rule change requests from AEMO and Tilt Renewables – which proposed changes to compensation frameworks, allocation of capacity directions costs for consumers, and the imposition of a $0/MWh price floor on spot prices to compensate participants for scheduling errors. Submissions are due on April 30.


Technology

Global towage operator Svitzer has signed an MoU with the Australia’s largest container port, the Port of Melbourne, to explore the use of electric tugboats throughout the port area, and deployment of related clean-energy infrastructure – including a dedicated renewable energy microgrid and high-capacity charging infrastructure – required to operate them. Also joining the effort are Plexar Energy and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP).


Climate

Biomass carbon removal (biomass CDR) technologies promise carbon storage “for centuries or longer” but widespread flaws in the protocols governing their operation is impacting the carbon market system, according to a new Clean Air Task Force (CATF) report. CATF offers six recommendations to improve governance in the carbon removal industry, including adopting the established definition of ‘carbon removal’, prescribing conservative estimates for supply chain removals when project-specific data are not available, improving consistency across protocols, and more.


People

Gordon Chakaodza has been appointed as co-director of Swinburne University of Technology’s Franco-Australian Indo-Pacific Centre for Energy Transition (FACET), an Australia-France climate change partnership that was established in 2023 to promote cooperation on sustainable and inclusive energy initiatives.

Bloomberg has appointed Albert Cheung as CEO of BloombergNEF (BNEF), following current BNEF CEO Jon Moore's announcement that he will retire in April after 12 years in the role.

What's On

March 24
Powering WA's Regions: Remote and Offshore Renewables

The Clean Energy Council will hold a panel session at Perth’s Golden Ballroom Centre, with speakers including Sabine Powell of DNV Australia, Vi Garrood of Horizon Power, Thomas Friberg of Zenith Energy, Emma van der Velde of GHD, and Nicole Blackburn of Schneider Electric (Australia).


March 24
Energy Dialogue Victoria

A panel of senior industry executives will discuss the future of energy transition, regulation and innovation at a Trans-Tasman Business Circle event. Speakers include Clean Energy Regulator chair David Parker AM, CBA’s Vivek Dhar, and Momentum Energy’s Lisa Chiba.


March 26
Biodiversity and Energy System Planning

The challenges of biodiversity protection in energy system planning will come into focus as the University of Melbourne’s Net Zero Australia (NZAu) Project releases the third report from its second phase. Speakers include Melbourne Biodiversity Institute’s Brendan Wintle, Queensland University’s Simon Smart, and Iberdrola Australia’s Claire Single.


April 23
Future Energy Forum

This Melbourne Energy Institute (MEI) event will focus on the potential role of nuclear-related technologies and other advanced energy technologies. Speakers include Type One Energy’s Charlie Baynes-Reid, HB11 Energy’s Dr Warren McKenzie, Hostplus’s Dr Sam Sicilia; University of Melbourne Professors Maria Rost Rublee and Martin Sevoir; and Melbourne Energy Institute director Professor Richard Sandberg.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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