Data centre home truths


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Tracking phantom data centres
  • Marie Jordan on the grid 'balancing act'
  • Sustainability Victoria no more

Reality check for data centres

The strain on the NEM from data centres might be overstated because it is based on connection requests, not finished projects, according to a new analysis from Oxford Economics Australia. Interest is not the same as build-out and six in every seven megawatts of connection requests could wind up being ‘phantom demand’.

In August, AEMO, working with Oxford Economics Australia, predicted data centre energy consumption will increase by an average of 25% per year, reaching around 6% of the NEM by 2029-30, double what AEMO had previously forecast. AEMO estimates Australian data centres consumed 3.9TWh in the year to June 2025. ChatGPT-owner OpenAI yesterday signed up to move into a $7 billion data centre to be built by NextDC in Western Sydney.

Globally, the growth in AI and demands for computing capacity is putting strain on grids everywhere, with the IEA estimating that electricity demand from data centres worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945TWh. Computing’s demand for electricity has been blamed for electricity bill increases, and has seen desperate moves from big tech, including restarting mothballed nuclear power plants.

AEMO received 44GW of data centre connection requests from network service providers in 2025, but that’s almost as much energy data centres consumed globally in 2024, indicating that some slippery numbers were at work.

Oxford Economics Australia went back to the data and found that duplicate applications, projects unlikely to pass planning regulations or financial close and unfeasible projects knocked out the vast majority of connection requests. Built-in redundancy and not accounting for demand flexibility tallied up another chunk of the 44GW, bringing the expected requirement down to just 2.8GW. But even at this reduced level, Alex Hooper, associate director of Oxford Economics Australia, expects the draw on the grid to be substantial and in line with their August predictions. “These numbers in this report are fully consistent with the AEMO numbers we released in August.”

The reanalysis comes as the Government released new national data centre principles to guide their planning and investment, with Science Minister Tim Ayres suggesting that data centres could contribute to strengthening the grid. Last week, a collective of tech companies also created a new peak body representing data centres, headed by ex-Microsoft executive Belinda Dennett.

Expert view

“In any normal development pipeline, there's reasons why projects don't get through final investment decision — maybe you're looking at a couple of plots of land and you go with one over the other — so there's sort of normal dropout reasons why projects don't proceed to build-out.

In the data centre space, we're seeing so much activity and excitement coming into Australia. So some people are looking for connections before there's necessarily an end customer.“

Alex Hooper
Associate Director, Oxford Economics Australia

Marie Jordan on the grid 'balancing act' and the role of data centres

In this episode of The Energy Connection, Aurecon’s Paul Gleeson speaks with Marie Jordan who joined Transgrid as head of network in 2022 after a long career managing electricity reliability in grids in Canada and the US. Marie is now preparing to retire and in this interview reflects on the unique challenges of Australia's energy transition.

Expert view

“Data centres, if we do them well, will help offset some of the costs, because you're really looking at socialising these costs over a bigger customer pool.

Ireland actually stopped data centere because it took up all the capacity that they had there. So, you know, it's a balance. How do you get the right mix? Can you get a data centre to co-locate with a battery and have that symbiotic relationship where you can peel the peak, because our risk in Australia right now is too low of a demand in the middle of the day. So it's a balancing act. I think we really need to ensure that we don't ignore the data centres, that we really look to bring them on in the right way with the right conversations, in the right locations. And I think that could be beneficial.”

Marie Jordan
Executive Adviser, Transgrid

Catch Up

Capital

Forecasting firm Modo Energy has secured $50 million from Molten Ventures, in partnership with ETF Partners, MMC Ventures, and Fred. Olsen Limited. The finance will be used to accelerate Modo Energy’s growth and “scale its impact globally” according to Molten Ventures.

The Parliamentary Budget Office’s latest National Fiscal Outlook shows a deterioration in the state of the economy, with a return to surplus blown out beyond the scope of forward estimates. The total state net operating balance is forecast to return to surplus in 2027-28, two years later than forecast in the combined 2024-25 budgets.


Projects

Zenith Energy has signed a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) to supply energy to Northern Star’s Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mine in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. Zenith will fund, build, own and operate 256MW of wind generation, 138MW/300MWh of battery energy storage and 138MW of solar generation using 5B’s rapid-install Maverick panels.

WA's proposed waste-to-energy facility may not be as efficient as initially predicted. An analysis of data on the project published by WA’s Environmental Authority and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency shows it will emit the equivalent of about 0.79 tonnes of CO2 (tCO2e) for each megawatt hour of electricity it generates. That more than the 0.4tCO2e/MWh by the nearby Kwinana gas-fired power station, and is only slightly less than the 0.83tCO2e/MWh produced at the Kogan Creek coal power station. (The Aus)

A battery energy storage system (BESS) proposed for construction next to a key connection point between the Victoria and South Australia grids has been waved through the federal environmental assessment process, leaving the developer Atmos Renewables now waiting on a state nod. According to planning documents, the 300MW/1200MWh Heywood BESS was only submitted to the federal regulator at the end of October. (ReNew Economy)


Policy

The economic value that can be realised by forging effective partnerships with First Nations groups in the clean energy and manufacturing sector could be worth between $12 billion and $29 billion by 2035, according to analysis from federally-funded body Powering Australia. New models of co-ownership, equity participation, and enabling finance will be critical for the opportunity to be realised, the report says.

Sustainability Victoria, a state-government agency which advises householders and small business on energy efficiency improvements, will be wound up as a result of sweeping cuts to the Victorian public service. The organisation had recently celebrated its 20th anniversary.


Regulation

The AEMC has clarified existing registration categories for NEM connection for stand-alone synchronous condensers (syncons). CS Energy had applied for a new category to be created for syncons, but AEMC determined that tweaking existing categories for integrated resource providers and customer registration was “the simplest feasible approach to addressing the issues raised in the rule change request”.


Technology

Consumer energy resources uptake is projected to rise steadily to 2050, Victoria Mollard, Executive General Manager, Economics & System Security for the AMEC told the Future Grid Summit this week. AEMC modelling suggests that 45% of homes will have rooftop solar, up from around a third today; 58% of home batteries will be aggregated by a third-party; and 80% of cars on the road will be EVs, compared to 3% today. CER uptake will have a “substantial, offsetting, impact on the grid,” she said. “While electrification would generally increase electricity imports and therefore has the potential to increase grid strain if not well managed, the opposite is also true. We can use CER installations to help decrease pressures on the grid and alleviate congestion, potentially at the extreme decreasing substantially electricity imports.”


Climate

Nature has retracted a 2024 paper that had predicted a 62% decline in economic productivity by 2100 due to climate change. After questions were raised about the study methodology, a recalculation found that economic activity would decline by ‘only’ 23%. The change was deemed "too substantial for a correction" and removed from the record. But the paper has been cited by several policy documents around the world, including the Climate Change Authority’s 2035 Targets Advice paper. (NYT) (The Aus)


Research

Chinese researchers have tested an electrolyte for lithium-metal batteries that can prevent fires. The electrolyte utilises a chemical called LiPF6 which turns from liquid to solid at high temperatures shutting down the run-away short circuit within seconds. (Nature Energy)

Lithium mining waste could replace part of the cement used in the making of concrete, according to UK researchers. For every tonne of battery-grade lithium carbonate produced, around nine to ten tonnes of waste are created. As countries transition to EVs, home batteries and utility-scale batteries, demand for lithium is expected to triple by 2030. But using lithium mining spoil, rich in similar minerals to Portland cement, could slash emissions and reduce landfill. (The Conversation)


Random

The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been renamed the National Laboratory of the Rockies by its parent Department of Energy. The change “embraces a broader applied energy mission,” according to NREL director Jud Virden.

What's On

December 5
Keeping the lights on - syncons vs batteries

Mark Twidell, Industry Professor of Practice at the UNSW Energy Institute, Transgrid Executive General Manager of Network Jason Krstanoski and James Brown, Senior Manager Enterprise Innovation at SA Power Networks will speak at this webinar from The Energy, moderated by UNSW Energy Institute CEO Dani Alexander.


December 8
The Energy Charter CEO Council Forum

SA Power Networks CEO Andrew Bills will join Essential Energy CEO John Cleland, EnergyAustralia CEO Mark Collette, Energy Charter CEO Sabiene Heindl and AusNet Services CEO David Smales at this online event on “delivering better customer + community outcomes”.


December 9, Sydney and December 11, Melbourne
Energy Tetris

The Energy’s first live event will feature Quinbrook CEO Brian Restall, Energy Security Corporation CEO Paul Peters, Southerly Ten Chief Development Officer Erin Coldham, Hydro Tasmania Chairman Richard Bolt, Westwind Managing Director Tobias Geiger, Atmos Renewables GM of Development Allison Hawke, RWE Renewables APAC Head of Regulatory Affairs Matthew Dickie, ASL GM System Planning & Financial Markets, Melanie Koerner, UNSW Associate Professor Iain MacGill and Senior Research Associate Dylan McConnell and Energy Edge MD Josh Stabler.


December 15
AEMC Public Forum: The pricing review

The Australian Energy Market Commission will host an online forum on its draft recommendations for the pricing review.


December 17
AER Public Forum: AusNet Transmission Revenue Proposal 2027-32

The Australian Energy Regulator will host an online public forum for stakeholders to ask questions about AusNet's 2027-32 transmission revenue proposal.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

Read more from The Energy

Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy Week, your chance to catch up on this week's most important energy news. Prefer to listen? Get The Energy Week on your favourite podcast platform. THE ENERGY WEEK • EPISODE 12 System security in focus 06:38 MORE INFO This week's top energy news This week was all about data centres and system security. The 2025 Transition Plan for System Security from the Australian Energy Market Operator issued a warning on shortfalls in investment, as the market decouples...

Hey Reader, in today's edition: Rule maker eyes home battery benefits Keeping the lights on at the right price Principles for public funding of green projects Rule maker projects price of getting transition wrong Further delays to wind and transmission projects along with prolonging the life of existing coal-fired power plants threaten to add 25% to annual household electricity prices, according to new analysis from the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC). The rule maker adds its voice...

Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy's weekly data newsletter. This week we kick off our regular seasonal review of the energy mix in the NEM and SWIS. Spring break Renewable energy came within a whisker of parity with fossil fuels in the eastern states National Electricity Market grid mix for Spring 2025, as the transition defied the naysayers. Western Australia’s South West Integrated System also came close to parity, driven by a huge surge in utility solar generation. In the NEM, big jumps in...