Ausgrid plays 'power poker'


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Ausgrid prepares 'distribution system plan'
  • The next frontier in energy forecasting
  • Biomethane plugged for industrial use

Who will win at 'power poker'

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean says distributed network service providers, with their knowledge of where spare grid capacity exists, are the “heavyweights that hold many of the cards in this game of power poker”.

Regulators are assessing the benefits of diluting ring-fencing rules to allow distribution networks to play a greater role in the transition, and on this, Kean wants to see the bar set high.

His comments come as Ausgrid seeks a waiver for its community power trial and prepares to release a new “distribution system plan” setting out what can be done at a distribution level to speed up the transition and reduce cost.

The next frontier

The next leap forward will be driven by data velocity, driving system risk and battery value, a leading energy forecaster says.

Rooftop PV telemetry, weather re-analysis, inverter-level performance traces and constraint reconfigurations are expanding faster than traditional engines can ingest. Forecasting is shifting from episodic model runs toward continuously updated real-time ensembles.

The question for modellers is no longer price, it is what is the probability of a high-impact state shift in this interval, under this pattern of weather and availability.

Expert view

“When the first grid-scale batteries entered the NEM in 2017, the existing models treated them like miniature peaking plants. They struggled with three structural features of storage: batteries move faster than most dispatch logic can interpret; they buy as well as sell, meaning revenue depends on spreads not gross energy; their optimal value is contingent on expectations of future states.

As a result, early forecasts materially undervalued the revenue stack. Over the past five years, forecasting engines have evolved to incorporate behavioural dispatch, probabilistic bidding logic, volatility regimes, scarcity probability and intertemporal optimisation. The technical story is not batteries adapting to the market — it is the market adapting its models to batteries.”

Pan Galanis
Director of Energy Markets, Akaysha Energy

Biomethane plugged for industrial use

Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Energy Minister Chris Bowen have been urged to expand the Hydrogen Headstart and the Hydrogen Production Tax Incentive to include renewable gas.

A joint open letter from the Renewable Gas Alliance warns current policy settings risk leaving a proven and scalable technology on the sidelines, even though it has been recognised as useful in reducing emissions across multiple sectoral plan

“This requires no new funding streams, just a broader eligibility criteria to allow biomethane projects access to existing renewable gas support. This would unlock private investment and accelerate emissions reductions in otherwise difficult-to-decarbonise sectors. This would provide the opportunity for the existing programs to have a material impact on emissions reduction by 2035.”
Shahana McKenzie
Bioenergy Australia CEO

Biomethane could be directly injected into the existing gas infrastructure and meet up to 96% of Australia’s current east-coast gas demand, including hard-to-abate industrial processes, so broadening the eligibility of current programs should be a no-brainer, they say.

“Decarbonising Australia’s economy requires exploring every available pathway including renewable gases like biomethane. We should be learning from the countries already demonstrating what’s possible and integrating these technologies to reduce emissions while keeping energy affordable and reliable. With the right policy settings, Australia has the networks, the know-how, and the opportunity to build on these lessons and make them our own.”
Dom van den Berg
CEO, Energy Networks Australia

Catch Up

Capital

Mining giant Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) is among those lobbying for new uranium mines, citing growing demand from Australia’s key trading partners, as a WA parliamentary inquiry considers how the resource-rich state should contribute to global decarbonisation. But Premier Roger Cook has said there would need to be a significant shift in the global market for uranium to trigger any review of WA’s ban. (AFR)

For the fourth year in a row, banks are making more money providing loans and underwriting bond sales for green-related projects than they’re earning from fossil fuel companies. (Bloomberg)


Projects

Tilt Renewables signed a 15-year, fixed-price Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) for 100% of the generation from the proposed 108MW Waddi Wind Farm, located 150km north of Perth — the first long-term wind PPA for AGL’s Perth arm. “This is a significant milestone for Tilt Renewables with the Waddi Wind Farm being our first project in Western Australia,” Tilt Renewables CEO Anthony Fowler said. “We are currently working through our internal processes and finalising construction contracts. A final investment decision on the project is expected in coming weeks and we are targeting commercial operation in the second half of 2028.”


Policy

The environmental protection package released yesterday by Environment Minister Murray Watt included a crackdown on “lawfare” with a new 28-day limit for third parties to request a reconsideration of a decision that a project is a controlled action. The seven bills also include a new ministerial power to make national environmental standards, a centrepiece of the Samuel review, and a definition of “unacceptable impacts” to save time on no-go projects. Draft versions of the first two standards — matters of national environmental significance and environmental offsets — will be released in coming days. The proposed changes won’t escape a committee inquiry, which is due to report back next March — missing the Minister’s Christmas deadline.

South Australia announced $17.5 million in matched funding for gas projects to shore up future supplies. The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) Gas Statement of Opportunities forecast risks of peak day gas shortfall from 2028, and structural supply gaps emerging from 2029. The new Gas Security Infrastructure Fund follows the state’s deal with AGL to extend the life of Torrens Island B gas-fired power station beyond 2026 to boost electricity supply and capacity.


Regulation

With residential gas demand expected to fall by 70% over the next two decades, the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) released a draft determination on a national framework for customers who want to stop supply to their property. “Our analysis found that making a customer who is leaving the gas network pay the real cost of disconnection is more equitable than spreading these costs across remaining customers, who are often those with fewer choices about their energy supply,” AEMC Chair Anna Collyer said, while conceding this approach might be a barrier for households wanting to electrify.


Technology

Energy Transition Show host and policy expert Chris Nelder said the “headlong rush into data centres” meant the world was “throwing climate change under the bus as a social priority”. Speaking at an Ausgrid event, Nelder said nobody was stopping data centre owners from relying entirely on fossil fuels, with gas the go-to fuel only constrained by shortages of turbines. “They're now repurposing old jet engines, bolting them to concrete and firing 'em up to power data centres and this is all happening without any regulatory oversight at all….because we want to write our emails easier. What are we doing here?”


Climate

Australia’s official website for COP30 is live. The verdict on COP31 remains in the balance.

Global net zero by 2050 is now “impossible” and the world is on course for temperature rises of 2.6 degrees Celsius, according to energy market analyst Wood Mackenzie. The Energy Transition Outlook 2025-2026 says that a 2°C warming limit would require US$4.3 trillion in annual investment between 2025-2060 and reaching net zero emissions by around 2060. Energy sector investment must grow from 2.5% of global GDP today to 3.35% within the next decade.


People

Kalbarri-based Natalie Moir joined Murchison Green Hydrogen as Regional Liaison Officer.

Victory Metals (ASX:VTM) appointed Emma Doyle, former Deputy Chief of Staff to President Donald Trump, as Senior Advisor for US Strategic Engagement.

Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) appointed Carri Lockhart as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer.

Rufimy Koo has been appointed to the investment committee at First Australians Capital, Australia's first Indigenous-led debt fund.


Research

University of Melbourne researchers published in Nature Nanotechnology say the microscopic movement of charged particles at the electrode-electrolyte interface could hold the key to faster charging. “Supercapacitors bridge the gap between traditional batteries and conventional capacitors,” Professor Zhe Liu said. “They can charge in seconds and last for millions of cycles. By improving how ions move within them, we can make them an even more powerful partner for renewable energy systems, electric transport, and grid stability.”


Random

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced a new round of sanctions targeting Russia’s oil trade while meeting with the Nordic 5 Foreign Ministers in Stockholm.

What's On

October 31
Fortescue AGM

Fortescue (ASX: FMG) Founder and Executive Chair Andrew Forrest will update shareholders at the annual general meeting in Perth.


November 5
WA Energy Outlook

Rebecca Brown, Director General of WA’s Department of Energy and Economic Diversification, Horizon Power EGM Future Energy Vi Garrood, and EDL CEO James Harman are among the speakers at this CEDA event in Perth.


November 5
Resilience to Variable Renewable Energy Lulls

ASL Modelling Manager Dominic Price and climate scientist Stuart Brown will speak at this ASL webinar.


November 5
National Press Club

Outgoing ASIC Chair Joe Longo will address the National Press Club on “Open for opportunity: Taking charge of the future of our financial markets” at this Canberra event.


November 6
ANU Solar Oration

Merryn York, who has led system design at AEMO, will speak at this Canberra event, following an opening statement by ACT Energy Minister Suzanne Orr.


November 7
Type 2 Transitional Services Webinar

AEMO Group Manager for Future Energy Systems Chris Davies and Engineering Roadmap & Service Delivery Manager Senah Javed will cover the Statements of Need for the System Restart under high DPV conditions Service, Zero Synchronous Generation Trial, GFM Inverter Fault Current Trial, and the Black Start from IBR Trial at this online event.


November 12
National Press Club

Japan’s Ambassador to Australia Kazuhiro Suzuki will address the National Press Club on "Girt by sea and in the same boat: 50 years of Japan-Australia relations and beyond” at this Canberra event.


November 18
National Press Club

FutureCoal (formerly known as the World Coal Association) CEO Michelle Manook will address the National Press Club on “the myths and future of coal” at this Canberra event.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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