Where fuel and national security collide


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • A chance to step up national security
  • IEA advice
  • Data centres divide

It's all about national security

As Australians queue to pay soaring prices for petrol and diesel, energy transition expert Elizabeth Thurbon says they should ask themselves a simple question: why has China spent the past 15 years building the world’s largest renewable energy system?

It’s not about climate change, it’s about national security.

And yet, writes Thurbon, Australia doesn’t need to copy China’s scale or America’s subsidy model to reap its own rewards. It could design targeted, outward-oriented policy instruments that crowd in private capital, anchor industrial capability, and deepen strategic partnerships across the Indo-Pacific.

Expert view

“Australia speaks of a Future Made in Australia and of becoming a renewable energy superpower through the export of low carbon products. But delivery remains fragmented: driven by project-by-project investment, constrained by uncertain demand, high financing costs and weak coordination between energy and industry policy.

If national security is the objective, this is not enough. We need policy tools that actively shape markets — creating demand certainty, lowering risk and coordinating investment at scale, particularly in first-of-a-kind industries like SAF, renewable fuels and green iron.”

Professor Elizabeth Thurbon
Director of the Green Energy Statecraft Project

IEA chief warns against sudden tax reform

The Middle East conflict has inflicted damage on up to 40 oil and gas assets, the head of the International Energy Agency told reporters on a visit to the National Press Club.

Fatih Birol said countries reliant on fuel imports in the Asia-Pacific region were most at risk from a protracted fuel crisis, but Australia’s current petrol and diesel fuel reserves were “adequate” at present. He added that Australia should continue to export LNG to replace lost production from Qatar.

Birol warned against overhauling taxes on oil and gas profits during such a tenuous situation when quizzed by reporters. But others, such as Thurbon in the article above, and the Grattan Institute, argue that the crisis is an ideal opportunity to improve the status quo.

Expert view

"The best way to [reform oil and gas taxes] would be to impose a windfall tax equivalent to 100% of revenue on sales above a fair price. That price could be, for example, the average domestic contract price.

"A tax like this would really function as a price cap – no one would charge above the fair price, because they would surrender the difference in tax. Producers will cry foul, but they shouldn’t. If they were happy selling gas for $12 a gigajoule three weeks ago, then what’s the argument against?”

Hamish McKenzie
Deputy Program Director, Energy & Climate Change, Grattan Institute

Data centre rules divide opinion

The federal government’s newly published National Data Centre Expectations (NDCE) – which include fast-tracked approvals for data-centre and AI-infrastructure operators that underwrite new renewable power supply and pay their full share of new grid connectivity – are “disappointing” because they ignore the existing on-site data centres that house nearly 80% of Australia’s computing capacity, industry group Data Centres Australia (DCA) has observed in arguing for the policies to have broader scope.

New, purpose-built facilities are highly optimised and represent the most energy-efficient segment of the market, the lobby group notes, arguing that the enterprise facilities dotting Australia’s cities and industrial parks were often built years ago with computing technology that is far less computationally dense and electrically efficient than today’s purpose-built solutions.

It’s just one of a flood of responses to the new policy, which the government outlined as the builders of proposed new gigawatt scale facilities negotiate with grid operators about how the facilities will be powered, and how this will be split between on-site renewables and power purchase agreements.

Expert view

“It is unlikely to trigger a wholesale shift off-grid – the policy is instead intended to influence how large loads interact with the grid and not push them off it.

The alternative to grid connection would require massive redundancy into behind-the-meter or quasi off-grid setups, likely involving the build of gas-fired power stations, and resulting in excessive and costly lead times to build, source and generate supply. "

Aaron White
Partner and Head of TMT (Asia), Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer

Expert view

“​​Western Australia’s mining sector has already shown that energy-intensive operations can operate off-grid and decarbonise without compromising reliability. With hybrid power systems and through long-term renewable PPAs, operators are integrating renewables, storage and firming in a way that supports both performance and cost control.

Data centres are facing new challenges including delays connecting to grids and accessing sufficient power, as AI-driven demand accelerates. The solution cannot rely solely on drawing more power from the grid.

To support system stability and manage long-term energy costs, new data centre developments should be backed by a clean energy supply and flexible capacity.

Government expectations will play an increasing role in shaping which projects proceed, prioritising developments that can clearly demonstrate how they bring new clean energy supply and flexible capacity with them. This means energy strategy is becoming increasingly relevant to project approvals and investment decisions.”

Hamish Moffat
Managing Director, Zenith Energy

Catch Up

Capital

BlackRock and Singapore-based Keppel are reportedly teaming up to buy the Plus ES smart meters business of Ausgrid, with BlackRock’s GIP infrastructure business set to expand an energy-heavy portfolio that includes shares in Sydney Airport, the Curtis Island GLNG plant near Gladstone, and other sites. The pair join an increasingly crowded field expected to compete for the smart meters business, which is expected to sell for around $2.5 billion.

Queensland small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with an interest in developing circular economy businesses are being invited to apply for a free eight-week R&D training program co-sponsored by CSIRO. Open to SMEs developing or supplying solutions in energy, solar, wind turbines, batteries and seven other industries, the Innovate to Grow: Circular Economy and Sustainability program offers what CSIRO SME Connect director George Feast called “structured support and connections to turn ideas into a clear R&D plan, backed by the expertise to act on it.”


Policy

US president Donald Trump and Iranian leaders have issued conflicting statements about reaching a deal to prevent the destruction of Iranian energy infrastructure, as the 48-hour deadline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz ticks down to later this morning. Whatever the outcome, observers warn that Australian politics is rapidly becoming all about gas, with markets about to drop off a looming ‘supply cliff edge’ as the final shipments of LNG from Persian Gulf area countries approach Australian ports.

Australia could face an economic disaster from continued fuel supply disruptions, according to a tabletop exercise that was run last year and warned of the “fragility” of Australia’s critical infrastructure. The final report on ‘Exercise Convergence’ – which was conducted last year by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) with the involvement of 314 government agencies, industry partners and not-for-profits – was finalised only months ago and obtained by the ABC, which highlighted warnings that a limited fuel supply would trigger “severe economic impact”.

Years of dwindling domestic oil production have left Australia with a limited set of potential solutions to the current energy crisis, a new IEEFA analysis has warned, urging the country to take “rapid, low-impact steps to reduce oil demand” and recommending the government explore “bilateral crisis supply agreements with suppliers affected by LNG shortages”. The warning and recommendations come as the Australian government announced that it is working closely with the Singapore government to accelerate negotiations on an arrangement in trade in essential supplies as well as considering legally binding bilateral arrangements. The IEEFA also advises that Australia pursue its electrification agenda – a point that the Energy Efficiency Council reiterated, with CEO Luke Menzel arguing that efficient electricity reduces running costs and insulates Australian households and business from future economic shocks.

One Nation, who polled ahead of the Liberal Party in South Australia's election on the weekend has outlined an energy policy that focuses on coal and nuclear. Party leader Pauline Hanson said the federal Department of Climate Change needed to be axed and wind and solar farms had ­“destroyed the nation”. “Yes, have your solar, wind, but not on agricultural land or any land actually,” Senator Hanson said. “You can put it on housing by all means. Get rid of the wind turbines." (The Australian)


Projects

DCCEEW is inviting comment on an application by Ampyr Australia Pty Ltd to build the Swallow Tail BESS, a 375MW/1500MWh grid forming system that also includes 1.5km of 330kV transmission lines, on a 144.15 hectare project area in Bannaby, NSW. Comment is open until April 8.

The escalating fuel crisis has driven Queensland Cane Agriculture and Renewables and Energy Estate to fast-track BioNQ, a new biofuel facility at Abbot Point, Queensland that will use sugarcane, sorghum, and agricultural residues to produce sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel and green methanol.

After days of speculation, the US Government officially reached a nearly US$1 billion agreement with French energy giant TotalEnergies to cancel its offshore wind leases off the coasts of New York and North Carolina. TotalEnergies committed to invest the value of those leases into oil and natural gas production in the United States, after which the United States will reimburse the company dollar-for-dollar for the amount they paid for the offshore wind leases. (Politico)


Regulation

Utility companies will need to ramp up their support processes for financial hardship customers, based on the results of a new ACOSS survey of 2,070 people that found 77% are struggling to pay their energy bills – up from 64% last year. This, despite reports of broad efforts to cut back on energy usage, with three-quarters saying they use lights less, 64% showering less, 52% reducing their cooking and 26% turning off appliances such as the refrigerator to reduce power consumption. Fully 51% said they go without food, medicine or other essentials to cope, while 48% said they had sought assistance from their energy retailers.


Climate

The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed 2025 was the second or third hottest year on record, and the decade period from 2015 to 2025 as the hottest 11 years ever. This year’s WMO State of the Global Climate report also measures Earth’s ‘energy imbalance’ – how much extra heat is trapped on Earth – for the first time and found this was at an all-time high in 2025. The addition of energy imbalance as a key indicator is particularly significant said UTS Centre for Climate Risk and Resilience director Martina Linnenluecke, noting that “a critical point is that this is not a temporary shock.”

After years of public commitment to decarbonisation, resources giant Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) has broken up its internal decarbonisation business as part of reorganisation initiated by new chief executive Simon Trott – who, reports say, has cut the company’s decarbonisation budget by up to 86% as it decentralises responsibility for cutting carbon.


People

Data centre and energy developer Celero Infrastructure has appointed Matt Mumme as chief financial officer. Mumme has nearly 20 years’ experience in the Australian energy and renewables sector, most recently as interim executive general manager of Markets & Operations at Tilt Renewables.

What's On

March 24
Powering WA's Regions: Remote and Offshore Renewables

The Clean Energy Council will hold a panel session at Perth’s Golden Ballroom Centre, with speakers including Sabine Powell of DNV Australia, Vi Garrood of Horizon Power, Thomas Friberg of Zenith Energy, Emma van der Velde of GHD, and Nicole Blackburn of Schneider Electric (Australia).


March 24
Energy Dialogue Victoria

A panel of senior industry executives will discuss the future of energy transition, regulation and innovation at a Trans-Tasman Business Circle event. Speakers include Clean Energy Regulator chair David Parker AM, CBA’s Vivek Dhar, and Momentum Energy’s Lisa Chiba.


March 26
Biodiversity and Energy System Planning

The challenges of biodiversity protection in energy system planning will come into focus as the University of Melbourne’s Net Zero Australia (NZAu) Project releases the third report from its second phase. Speakers include Melbourne Biodiversity Institute’s Brendan Wintle, Queensland University’s Simon Smart, and Iberdrola Australia’s Claire Single.


April 14
Who's really in charge? Rewiring governance for Australia's energy transition

UNSW Energy Institute CEO and The Energy advisory board member Dani Alexander will moderate this webinar from The Energy on governance, featuring a new report authored by Rob Murray-Leach and in discussion with former Commonwealth energy secretary Drew Clarke, Grattan Institute Energy and Climate Change Program Director Alison Reeve and Nous Group CEO Tim Orton.


April 23
Future Energy Forum

This Melbourne Energy Institute (MEI) event will focus on the potential role of nuclear-related technologies and other advanced energy technologies. Speakers include Type One Energy’s Charlie Baynes-Reid, HB11 Energy’s Dr Warren McKenzie, Hostplus’s Dr Sam Sicilia; University of Melbourne Professors Maria Rost Rublee and Martin Sevoir; and Melbourne Energy Institute director Professor Richard Sandberg.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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