Expert view

In 2026 I'm watching for new wind farms. Grid modelling, including the AEMO Integrated System Plan (ISP) show that wind is an essential component in the energy mix to reach net zero and minimise system costs. Wind provides an important complementary generation profile to solar. However challenging project conditions, including increased capital costs and social licence has meant that no projects reached a final investment decision (FID) in 2025 in the NEM (one project reached FID in the WEM). This slowed rate of new build was reflected in the ISP 2026 draft. The view over the horizon for 2026 is looking better however, including possible movement in the nascent offshore wind industry.

I'm also watching consumer energy resources coordination. The Nelson review has recommended a larger number of currently 'invisible' assets like rooftop solar, flexible loads and small (sub-5MW) batteries need to become part of the central dispatch process to some degree. Large numbers of invisible assets threaten grid security and efficient price formation. However the implementation of the federal government's home battery scheme highlighted some of the challenges in registering small batteries in virtual power plants. This is an important area of reform, and the decisions made in the near term could have wide ranging consequences on the future of the grid. New business models, or stifled innovation rest on the back of these looming regulatory decisions.

Alex Leemon Manager, Customer and Energy Markets, PolarBlue

Expert view

In 2026 I'll be watching for changes in planning approval processes. Innovation is driven by volume. We know that the required rollout of projects for the energy transition is enormous. We won’t meet that volume without seeing changes in the way that planning approvals take place.

Growth in data centres is a hot topic, trending across industry and policy – everyone is watching.

What we are taking notice of is the fact that there are now multi-year wait lists for gas turbines set to power off-grid data centres. That’s not the trajectory we want to see.

Energy demand from data centres requires us to be collectively front-footed in making sure that renewables meet this demand now, not at some indeterminate point in the future.

David Griffin CEO, 5B

Expert view

2026 is the year the transition shifts from project announcements to system performance. I’ll be watching two main things: grid‑scale flexibility from distributed energy resources (DER) — virtual power plants (VPPs), dynamic export, and local flexibility markets becoming routine; and social licence that brings communities to trust and take up VPPs.

On my radar is interoperability (Common Smart Inverter Profile Australia and open APIs), distribution‑level visibility, cyber resilience of smart devices, and AI‑assisted operations that turn complexity into reliable dispatch.

Indicators in 2026 will be curtailment; Frequency Controlled Ancillary Services prices; VPP activation value and frequency; dynamic export adoption by Distribution Network Service Providers; customer trust and the cost of capital.

I expect materially more orchestrated flexibility amid a boosted Cheaper Home Battery Program, fewer constrained assets, and clearer revenue stacks for DER. If policy and market design keep unlocking participation while safeguarding consumer data, 2026 will show distributed and utility‑scale resources can operate as one system — reliable, affordable, and fair. Happier electricity consumers!

George Martin CTO, Plico

Expert view

As an innovator, Smartizer is closely monitoring how policy, technology, and consumer behaviour converge around distributed energy in 2026. Our focus is on three interconnected areas: regulation, customer adoption, and grid dynamics.

On regulation, we are tracking reforms that enable renters and apartment residents to participate in the energy transition, including rules for small, portable batteries, plug-in systems and bidirectional EV charging. The Australian Government’s three-hour free electricity policy is a key indicator, with the potential to reshape load shifting, battery economics and grid stability.

From a technology perspective, Smartizer is monitoring cost trajectories for batteries, inverters, and power electronics alongside rising cybersecurity requirements for distributed energy assets. Smart energy management systems and home energy efficiency solutions are emerging as critical enablers, helping households optimise consumption, integrate EVs and maximise battery value.

Current consumer demand from renters, strata managers, councils and retailers provide clear signals of market readiness.

In 2026, we expect rapid growth in modular home batteries, stronger integration between electric vehicles, smart home energy management and energy-efficient systems and increasing pressure on networks to support flexible, customer-owned energy. We see 2026 as the year renter-inclusive, distributed energy solutions move decisively from niche to mainstream.

Neil McFarlane Head of Business Development, Smartizer