Expert view

After a very subdued period for onshore wind last year I will be looking to see if global supply chains strengthen and increased OEM competition make a difference for project FID in 2026.
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Alongside this it will be a key year for the Capacity Investment Scheme, can tender awards translate into the level of activity needed on the ground and will offtake be available at the scale needed.

For storage I will be closely watching how batteries innovate again this year, this has been a real success story with increasing scale and capacity being delivered, it is likely we will see this trend continue.

On the policy front ministerial endorsement and market body implementation of the final report of the Nelson review will mark critical steps in future market design. How quickly and collaboratively this is undertaken will be central to its future impact.

Simon Corbell Chair, The Energy advisory board

Expert view

As we move into the second half of this decisive decade, I’m considering three big things and three big questions.

First, a further focus on household electrification. It is becoming abundantly clear that electrifying low-value uses of gas is the ticket to lower cost decarbonisation and to address projected gas shortfalls. Along with the extension to the Cheaper Home Batteries Program, the question remains: “how can we access the benefits of DER/CER with and without coordination/orchestration?”.

Second, the increasing urgency of system security. We often speak about the imperative for accelerating renewable energy deployment to address reliability issues from projected capacity shortfalls. We’re now seeing very clearly how coal retirement can also create challenges for power system security. But what are we going to do if the syncons are late?

Third, the viability of future green industries. We are seeing existing industry struggling with energy costs alongside the clear economic imperative to replace our fossil-fuel exports (BZE analysis from 2021 highlights a >$100 billion economic risk). How do we feel confident about the strategic deployment of substantial investment as we move towards becoming a renewable energy innovation superpower?

Underpinning all these things is cost (not price!). In 2026, I'm looking forward to further progress towards bearing this cost efficiently, fairly, and in a way that supports our future economic prosperity. As I see it, addressing this will require bold, strategic investments in innovation to unlock (as the IGCC argues) more than $100 billion in clean-industry jobs and resilient energy infrastructure that will benefit all Australians.

Dani Alexander CEO, UNSW Energy Institute

Expert view

I am hopeful that 2026 could be the year for a step up in strategic investment and philanthropy in electrification and climate tech. The reason is that sitting on the sidelines is no longer an option. The strategy is that innovation and deployment bring down costs and that means we can eliminate fossil fuels while proving cost of living relief for consumers.

Long after the AI and crypto bubbles burst, clean energy and transportation and increasingly, manufacturing and construction, will keep surging — from Pakistan to Parramatta, New England to old England. That should define Australia’s ambition as COP31’s 'president of negotiations'.

Even for investors who worry that energy politics is noise, they should recognise that innovation, cost reduction, and consumer confidence are signal. Even Donald Trump and his Energy Dominance Council cannot make solar expensive again.

Prices and public opinion favour an abundant electric future. New materials and business models are emerging from fashion to bricks to fuels that look to win on price. A circular materials economy makes economic sense and rhymes with resilience. But progress is too slow for the climate and too complex for the consumer.

In 2026, I hope we see big cheques written — immediate and long-term investment from infrastructure to venture capital to philanthropy. Australia must cultivate clean energy consensus, open markets, back climate tech startups and empower Pasifika climate action. This is full stack of climate hope — from a vigorous movement for bipartisan support for household electrification to Australia’s first climate unicorn.

Dan Cass Independent consultant

Expert view

The 2026 energy year opens under pressure to see grid-scale renewable projects committed and construction underway.

The development of new wind and solar and associated infrastructure naturally enough follows the initial financial commitment, and 2025 was a year of commitment aversion.

Despite 65 successful bids for Capacity Investment Scheme funding to date, it was the second half of December before the first (108MW) wind farm reached financial close. Large-scale solar commitments also fell well short of the opportunity.

2026 must see a return to the promise of this decade of deployment. With the outcomes of the NEM review queued for implementation late in 2027, I will be watching the near-term incentive environment for projects of high value to the system and hoping for more investment in social licence.

I will also be watching the continuing rise of solar and batteries behind-the-meter and fuel switching in industry, as compelling investment cases and proven electrified industrial heat technologies earn a growing share of the energy pie.

Anna Hancock Executive Director, Pollination

Expert view

In 2026, I’ll be watching whether we can finally shift from ambition to delivery. After years of big announcements, we need to get much better at working together, so the right infrastructure gets built at the right time, and clean energy and industrial projects can actually happen. That means doing the planning up front, with clearer roles, better coordination and early involvement from communities and regions.
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If transmission lines, renewable energy and clean industries are planned in sequence, not silos, things move faster and with more public support. I’ll be keeping an eye on whether we start clearing the blockers we already know about: project approvals and community support; and tracking that government finance that crowds in — rather than crowds out — private investment in the clean economy.
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What matters now is getting things built, so that we can safely retire our ageing fossil fuel energy fleet and secure the clean export markets of the future.

Heidi Lee CEO, Beyond Zero Emissions