The next power shift


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Lead or lose out: net zero report
  • What to consider before social licence
  • A planet-sized distributed energy resources challenge

Driving the next power shift

The “strongest possible” 2035 climate target would unlock a $190 billion opportunity to boost exports, stimulate investment in local businesses, and create thousands of jobs, according to a Climate Council report.

Power Shift: The US, China and the Race to Net Zero, found US corporations remain committed to net zero with 84% holding firm on their climate commitments despite President Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” mantra, while China retains the lead in clean technology manufacturing supplying 80% of the world’s solar panels, 60% of wind turbines, 75% of batteries, and 70% of electric vehicles.

California is powered by two-thirds clean energy and has run on 100% clean power for part of the day almost every day this year. The state also has one of the world’s largest cap-and-trade emissions trading schemes with some of the funds generated used for climate adaptation.

Low-emissions energy sources (including renewables and nuclear) now generate more than 40% of the world’s electricity. In 2025, investment in renewables is set to hit A$3.4 trillion – twice as much as global investment in coal, oil and gas.

“Australia’s choice is lead, or lose out. The economic case for a stronger 2035 climate target is clear. This is in our national interests. If we pass this up — and take a weaker stance — then our security, economic prosperity and credibility are all on the line.”
Nicki Hutley
Climate Councillor and economist

From 2026, the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), will take full effect, potentially imposing steep tariffs on key Australian exports such as iron/steel, aluminium, cement and fertilisers if domestic climate action falls short.

Meanwhile the Business Council of Australia issued its own report, warning that a 2035 climate target of more than 60% reductions will require more than $400 billion in new capital investment from government and industry. (AFR) (Guardian)

What to consider before social licence

It’s a common refrain, says Professor Sara Bice, to hear renewable energy developers say “We have to secure a social licence”. But Bice’s research, as part of ANU’s Institute for Infrastructure in Society, has found this is not the critical starting point.

Speaking at a webinar this week hosted by The Energy Charter on what’s being missed in renewable energy engagement, Bice said the energy transition in Australia was at a “perfect social licence storm situation”. One big contributor to this storm is that we are in the historically most intensive infrastructure environment ever, with a $392 billion infrastructure pipeline underway.

Expert view

“We hear often from governments that they're really concerned to do more engagement because they feel that communities are overconsulted and have consultation fatigue. Our research with over 7000 members of the Australian community, including 12 communities up and down the east coast that are qualified as infrastructure intensive, tells us that communities do not have consultation fatigue, they have bad engagement fatigue.

About 20% of the communities that we surveyed that have the most projects have said they'd actually like more communication and consultation, and the majority say that communication level is about right. What they really don’t like is ingenuine consultation, tick-a-box consultation and consultation that asks them pretty much the same questions they got asked last week, just on another project.”

Sara Bice
Professor and Director, ANU Institute for Infrastructure in Society

A planet-sized DER challenge

Six months into Project Jupiter, Western Australia’s large scale distributed energy resources (DER) initiative, Western Power and Synergy have been sharing lessons learnt.

At a webinar hosted by project supporter ARENA this week, Western Power project director for Project Jupiter Mike Bradford acknowledged it was “a complex piece of work that involves innovation and change across a very diverse group of partners”.

“When the project was initially in development, we weren't anticipating a state or a federal battery scheme,” Bradford said.

“They will absolutely rapidly boost the uptake of DER in the SWIS, and we're already seeing that, which is great for the program as a whole, but has required us to be very agile and adaptable in terms of some of the streams of work that were planned for later in the program have had to be accelerated significantly.”

“Another one of the challenges that we've been dealing with is how exactly DER will participate in the capacity and other markets. And we're now working through a range of options for that.”

At the consumer level, the project is now turning to education to explain virtual power plants and why people should get involved, Synergy communications consultant Rebecca Patton said.

“Obviously, this is not a construct for all customers, but I think increasing that sort of standard level of understanding and energy literacy is only going to unlock more opportunities, both for the system and for customers as well.”

Meanwhile, the project is offering actionable insights that can be carried from the wholesale electricity market (WEM) to the national electricity market (NEM) as it too steps up DER.

A ‘National Alignment Report’ authored by Rennie associate director Gary Eisner says without mechanisms to harmonise knowledge, standards and timelines across the WEM and the NEM, Australia risks duplication, higher costs, and slower progress in the uptake of DER/CER.

Expert view

"There's been a lot of work around creating that value stack for consumers, and that's something the NEM we're seeing is really struggling with. Not saying that the WEM has it perfect either, but we just think they're further ahead on that journey.

Both markets are really grappling with social license and the imposition of emergency backstop mechanisms and export charges have eroded trust, and that's something that's got to be rebuilt. People need to see the value, and working together on how to communicate the personal and system benefits of DER in a digestible way will benefit both markets.

Gary Eisner
Associate Director, Rennie

Catch Up

Capital

Akaysha Energy successfully closed a $300 million corporate debt facility with major banks to fund a large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) project pipeline in Australia, US, Japan and Germany.

“This is a landmark facility for Akaysha and for the Australian renewables sector. As the first borrowing base loan of its kind in the market, it provides the scale and flexibility to accelerate our development pipeline and capitalise on the extensive set of near-term opportunities that we see in Australian and global energy markets.”
Andrew Wegman
Akaysha Chief Financial & Investment Officer

The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) launched the second funding round of the $1 billion Solar Sunshot program, with $150 million available for the solar PV supply chain, including framing, solar glass, junction boxes and deployment technologies. Round 2 will open for submissions on September 23. Community benefits such as spurring local supply chains, creating jobs and more diverse workforces will help bids.

“Although we have a very small production capability today, we have the skills, partnerships and raw materials to establish a strong base that can be built on over the next decade.”
Darren Miller
ARENA CEO

New Zealand’s Meridian Energy is offering up to NZ$250 million of 6.5 year unsecured, unsubordinated, fixed rate green bonds to institutional and New Zealand retail investors. In recognition of the pre-offer investor feedback, Meridian confirmed it has increased the oversubscription amount from NZ$50 million to NZ$100 million.


Projects

Frontier Energy (ASX: FHE) announced the assignment of 88.06MW of Certified Reserve Capacity (CRC) for Stage One of the Waroona Renewable Energy Project. The Reserve Capacity Mechanism (RCM), unique to Western Australia, is designed to ensure adequate generation capacity is available to meet peak electricity demand. The Benchmark Reserve Capacity Price for 2027/28 is $360,700 per MW, which is a 57% increase on 2026/27.

“The assignment of Certified Reserve Capacity for our Waroona Project is an important step in the development and financing of the Project … and adds significant revenue to the Project. Pleasingly, the Benchmark Reserve Capacity Price is significantly higher than what we had forecast in our DFS (Definitive Feasibility Study). We look forward to the final allocation of Capacity Credits as well as the final reserve capacity price that will be released during 4Q25.”
Adam Kiley
Frontier CEO

Victoria Minister for Energy Lily D’Ambrosio cut the ribbon on Tilt Renewables’ 100MW Latrobe Valley Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), located beside the existing Morwell terminal station. Victoria, dubbing itself “the home of big batteries” has 12 large-scale energy storage systems in operation with a total output capacity of 1028MW — more than any other state — and has a renewable energy storage target of at least 2.6 GW by 2030.

Meridian Energy recently inked a joint venture deal with Nova Energy for one of New Zealand’s biggest solar farms, for the first 200MW phase of the 400MW Te Rahui Solar Farm near Taupo. Project offtake will be shared 50-50 by way of a power purchase agreement with Meridian for 100% of the offtake and a contract for difference with Nova for 50%. First power on phase one is expected in mid-2026, with full power in mid-2027.


Policy

Federal, state and territory treasurers will meet on Friday with a road-user tax for EVs on the agenda. Australian Automobile Association Managing Director Michael Bradley has suggested using NSW legislation as a model by imposing a modest charge on EV owners from mid-2027 or when EVs reach a new vehicle market share of 30% — whichever comes first. Australian Electric Vehicle Association National President Chris Jones said the new charge must be universal and include vehicle mass if the goal is to encourage EV uptake and fix the limitations of the current fuel excise.

The 2025 Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum (ANZLF) which met this week in Canberra said there was a need for consistent climate-related standards and coordinated regulation and finance to remove barriers to green economic growth, along with greater collaboration on a trans-Tasman workforce, investment, and innovation.


Regulation

The Greens introduced the Public Governance, Performance and Accountability Amendment (Ban Unethical Contractors) Bill 2025. Unlike many other jurisdictions including the UK, US and Canada, Australia does not have a federal debarment or exclusion regime for government contracts. Unethical conduct is defined under proposed section 105BC to include recent convictions or pecuniary penalties, a proven record of poor labour practices or tax avoidance, or any other conduct that has, or is likely to have, an adverse impact on the integrity of, or public confidence in, the Commonwealth.

“The Greens want to close the legal loophole that allows contractors who behave unethically to get away with it. This bill would give the Commonwealth the teeth it currently lacks. It would allow the Commonwealth to debar dodgy contractors, like PwC, from entering into government contracts and would deter unethical conduct.”
Barbara Pocock
Greens Senator

In New Zealand, a business customer who was told it could take two months and NZ$7500 to quit gas is one of a number who complained to complaint resolution provider Utilities Disputes (UDL) about disconnection issues. (RNZ)


Technology

The global distributed energy resources (DER) technology market size is predicted to increase from US$98.20 billion in 2025 to US$293.59 billion by 2034 as advancements in energy storage and smart grid technologies, the need for greater flexibility and grid resilience, and supportive governmental policies drive growth. Integration of smart grids and AI-driven energy management systems are further enhancing the ability to balance supply and demand in real time in renewable energy ecosystems, Precedence Research found.


Climate

Climate models are complex and critiques of climate science often point to this complexity to argue that these models are too uncertain to help us understand present-day warming or tell us anything useful about the future, but the evidence is all around us, writes Nadir Jeevanjee, a Research Physical Scientist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (The Conversation)


People

How one student’s experience is helping to shape renewable energy education. (Penn Engineering)


Research

The Australian Academy of Science report Australian Science Australia's Future: Science 2035 warned declining trends in skills development and investment in Australian science are putting productivity and sovereign capability at risk. Released at a national symposium in Canberra, the report identifies eight areas that will be most in demand by 2035 with gaps in capability — agricultural science, AI, biotechnology, climate science, data science, epidemiology, geoscience, and materials science — and how to fix it.

“Australia is facing a collapsing pipeline of STEM skills in the community and workforce essential for the nation’s future. Simply put, our sovereign capacity to innovate and respond to emerging challenges all clearly outlined in the Intergenerational Report of 2023 is undermined … For the first time, we have a map of what needs to be done, backed by evidence, and no excuse to do nothing because now we know.”
Professor Ian Chubb, Chair of the report’s advisory panel

Random

Danish renewable giant Orsted is suing the Trump administration after a stop-work notice was issued on its Revolution Wind project on Rhode Island, which was 80% complete. In their complaint, the developers said that they had already spent US$5 billion on the project and would incur another US$1 billion in financial penalties from failing to complete it, while also losing billions of dollars in future revenue if the project was canceled. Orsted is 50% owned by the Danish Government. (NYT) (FT)

The US Institute for Energy Research said the Department of Energy’s A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate was “a welcome synthesis of climate science”. The institute released comments from scientists who it said were not associated with the skeptic or realist school of climate science such as the 2025 Climate Working Group and “rightly understand energy as the master resource and the uncertainties of climate modeling”.

What's On

September 9
Smart Energy Queensland

Environment Minister Murray Watt, Greens Leader Larissa Waters, Windlab Chief Development Officer Nathan Blundell, First Choice Solar Founder Peter Berkers, Solar Training Centre CEO Steve Kostoff, QUT Energy Storage Research Group Director Joshua Watts, and Renewables and Distributed Energy General Manager at Ergon Energy Network and Energex Glenn Springall will speak at this expo in Brisbane.


September 9-11
Women in Energy & Renewables Summit 2025

NEM Review Panel Member Paula Conboy, Head of Stakeholder & Community Engagement at Squadron Energy Kath Elliott, Tilt Renewables CEO Anthony Fowler, Endeavour Energy CEO Guy Chalkley, Ausgrid Group Executive for Transmission Development and Growth Kelly Wood, AEMO Executive General Manager of Policy & Corporate Affairs Violette Mouchaileh, Champions of Change Coalition Program Director Olivia Tsen will speak at this sold-out event in Sydney.


September 9-11
Gippsland New Energy Conference

Superpower Institute Director Ross Garnaut, GunaiKurnai Land and Waters Aboriginal Corporation (GLaWAC) Chair Troy McDonald, the Net Zero Economy Authority’s Energy Industry Jobs Plan Review Leader Professor Roy Green, Iberdrola Executive Manager Engagement & Social Licence Nicola Pero, and Marinus Link Head of Community Stakeholder Engagement Mark Lindsay will speak at this event in Traralgon.


September 11
SACOSS Energy Forum

Australian Energy Regulator Chair Clare Savage, Energy Consumers Australia Advocacy and Policy Executive Manager Adam Collins, and Monash University Professorial Fellow Ron Ben-David will speak at this event in Adelaide.


September 11-12
24th Energy in WA Conference

WA Program Director for The Superpower Institute Jessica Shaw will lead a panel on the nuts and bolts of how flexible, integrated solutions are being delivered, featuring Executive GM Commercial & Growth at AGIG Rachael Smith, APA’s GM Power Development Gary Bryant, Enscope President Phil Ireland, Accure’s Australia Head Alan Coller and AEMO’s System Operations expert Paul Elliott at this event in Perth.


September 15
Queensland Clean Energy Summit

Corrs Chambers Westgarth Partner Melissa Grintner, Windlab Chief Development Officer Nathan Blundell, Aula Energy Head of Development Anthony Russo, regional mayors Greg Williamson and Andrew Smith, and Jo Sheppard from the Queensland Farmers'​ Federation are among the line-up at this Clean Energy Council event in Brisbane.


September 16
The Price of Power: The Future of Australia's Energy Sector

Bluescope Chief Executive, Climate Change and Sustainability Deborah Caudle, Alinta Energy CEO Jeff Dimery, AGL CEO Damien Nicks and Australian Energy Council CEO Louisa Kinnear will speak at this American Chamber of Commerce event in Melbourne, with R. Blair Thomas, CEO of US energy investment firm EIG speaking via Zoom.


September 23
AEMO's Annual Results

Australian Energy Market Operator CEO Daniel Westerman and Executive General Manager for Finance and Governance Vanessa Hannan will outline progress against strategic priorities and initiatives, financial results for FY25 and priorities for FY26.


September 24
Updated net zero pathways for Australia

The Net Zero Australia Project team from the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and Princeton University will present their latest report on the roles of renewables, energy storage and firming including nuclear, carbon capture and storage and other complementary technologies at this hybrid event.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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