ONE

Stop the supply chain crunch

A new report from the IEA offers 8 “actionable insights” for governments, industry and regulators to help strengthen the transmission supply chain (you know, the one that has developers around the world tearing their hair out in frustration). Some may not survive the Trump administration, but they’re sensible nonetheless.

1. Enhance visibility on future demand - yes, telling people your plans helps
2. Strengthen the industry dialogue - here’s the case for attending that conference
3. Encourage proactive grid investment - invest for what’s coming
4. Design effective procurement frameworks - align procurement with national plans
5. Streamline permitting - be consistent with your red tape, and prioritise key projects
6. Maximise existing grid infrastructure - make what you already have efficient
7. Promote diverse, resilient and sustainable supply chains - don’t prop up monopolies
8. Ensure a skilled workforce - start training for all of the skills we’ll need

Permitting remains the primary cause of delays in transmission projects, according to the IEA, particularly in advanced economies, but the backlog or orders for cables, transformers, materials and other components is also starting to crunch. A survey of industry players conducted by the IEA found it now takes two to three years to procure cables and up to four years to secure large power transformers.

The IEA says while investment in transmission has started to pick up, led by Europe, the United States, China, India, and parts of Latin America, spending would need to exceed US$200 billion per year by the mid-2030s to meet rising needs for electricity, and hit US$250-300 billion to achieve stated emissions reduction goals.

Why it matters

• In 2024, some 1650 GW of global solar and wind projects in advanced stages of development were stranded while awaiting grid connections.
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• Inadequate transmission remains a major constraint on power system development, electrification and energy security.

What's next

Adding to supply chain woes, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said Australia was “very, very unlikely” to carve out tariff exemptions under Trump 2.0. “I think this time there will be no exemptions and they will apply right across the board,” he told ABC RN.

TWO

Plot your own nuclear plume

Almost 200,000 Australians would be at risk of a nuclear accident if the Coalition’s proposal for seven nuclear reactors goes ahead, according to anti-nuclear campaigner Dr Jim Green.

Nuclear plume research and population data released by the Don’t Nuke the Climate project allows people to visualise how their community would be affected.

Users can adjust for wind direction to see how far a pollution plume from an accident could potentially spread across their community, and if it would cover their home, workplace, or local school.

“The Fukushima experience raises uncomfortable questions for Peter Dutton about emergency preparedness, pre-distribution of iodine tablets to reduce the number of thyroid cancers, evacuation zones, the insurance industry’s refusal to insure against nuclear accidents, and much more,” Green said.

Why it matters

• Almost 200,000 people, 33 hospitals, 99 schools and 62 daycare centres are located within 30km evacuation zones of the seven sites proposed by the Coalition.
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• Caesium-137 was one of the most significant radioactive contaminants from the March 2011 Fukushima disaster but other types of radioactive particles contaminated wide areas.

News wrap

Projects

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Petronas-owned clean energy developer Gentari said development would kick off this month on its hybrid Maryvale solar and battery project after it had secured necessary contracts. The project, which has a maximum export capacity of 172MW, will become one of the first solar-BESS hybrid projects under AEMO’s Long-Term Energy Service Agreements framework.

The Port of Newcastle signed an advisory agreement with Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to help inform the layout, enablement and design of Newcastle’s proposed Clean Energy Precinct. The project received a $100 million grant for hydrogen readiness from the federal government and had planned to connect to the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub which was recently abandoned by Origin Energy.

Policy

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A re-elected Labor government would struggle to meet its 82 per cent renewable energy by 2030 target, according to forecasts from independent research company Rystad Energy. It has projected a renewable share of around 6 per cent — a shortfall of 17 per cent, even under the most optimistic scenarios. Rystad estimates under Labor, Australia would add a record 7.2 GW to its grid annually of both renewable energy and gas — the highest annual increase in Australia’s history. An LNP victory, on the other hand, would likely lead to a reduction in solar and wind power deployment, “but by how much is the key unknown”.

Roger Cook’s victory shows voters in WA are open to an offering shaped around local jobs, manufacturing, better services and stable governance in times of global uncertainty, according to The West.

The wait for new grid connections in the UK will be cut by up to 7 years, the UK government said, ahead of introducing a new Planning and Infrastructure Bill designed to help speed up the country’s energy transition. Decisions for onshore and offshore wind, solar power, electricity grids, hydrogen, carbon capture and nuclear power stations will be fast-tracked, instead of the current first come, first served approach. Targeted reforms in the bill include electricity discounts to people living within 500 metres of new pylons, and a ‘cap and floor’ scheme to unlock investment in long duration electricity storage.

Regulation

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The Australian Energy Regulator will release its draft determination on the Default Market Offer for 2025/26 on Thursday March 13.

Technology

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Solar and storage accounted for 84 per cent of all new electric generating capacity added to the US energy grid last year, a new Wood Mackenzie report found. Commissioned by the Solar Energy Industry Association, the data shows utility-scale solar grew by 33 per cent year-over-year with a record 41.4 GW of installed capacity, aided by favourable government policies and tax credits. The U.S. Energy Information Administration this week said data from developers showed new capacity would lead to a 33 per cent increase in US solar generation in 2025 followed by a 19 per cent increase in 2026.

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Research

Researchers from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University say a more iterative process is needed to avoid misuses of energy-economic modelling in climate policymaking. In a paper in Nature Climate Change Noah Kaufman and Chris Bataille say models can misinform climate policy decision-makers:

• when the time horizon of the analysis is too long;
• when the analysis is insufficiently comprehensive; and
• when the analysis is insufficiently detailed.

More limited and iterative modelling exercises could inform decision-making more effectively.

A new study of how water moves over surfaces has potential future application in hydrogen and ammonia fuel-holding systems or for boosting energy storage and charging rates, according to RMIT. Researchers from RMIT and the University of Melbourne found water generates an electrical charge up to 10 times greater than previously understood when it moves across a Teflon surface.

What's on

The Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council will meet on Friday March 14.

Thimo Mueller, General Manager, Commercial at AEMO Services will speak alongside Nexa Advisory CEO Stephanie Bashir and Tim Buckley, Director, Climate Energy Finance Australasia at the Energy Storage Australia conference on Tuesday March 18.