Rethinking gas forecasts


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In today's edition:

  • Coalition lines up energy policy whisperers
  • Energy debates getting mixed up
  • The green shipping opportunity

Another Coalition energy policy

Coming off a nuclear-inspired election loss, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley pledged to establish a Coalition working group on energy and emissions reduction policy that will report to her and Nationals Leader David Littleproud.

Speaking at the National Press Club for the first time as leader, Ley sidestepped a question about whether net zero by 2050 would be retained as bare minimum and said the Coalition’s “practical and principled” approach would be underpinned by two goals:

  • having a stable energy grid which provides affordable and reliable power for Australian households and businesses
  • reducing emissions so that Australia is playing its part in the global effort.

Led by Shadow Energy Minister Dan Tehan, the policy whisperers will include Shadow Treasurer Ted O'Brien, Susan McDonald for resources, Alex Hawke for industry, Angie Bell in environment and shadow assistant ministers Dean Smith and Andrew Wilcox.

“Now, we got smashed at the last election. I think I made that very clear. And that's a good reason why we would say let's start this policy development process at the beginning. Let's do it properly and let's take the time to get it right.” - Opposition Leader Sussan Ley

‘Passing strange’ on gas substitution

Victoria’s Gas Security Statement, intended to avoid gas shortfalls by reserving supply for industry, contained “mixed messages”, according to the peak body for gas producers.

The gas industry wanted to bring new supply to market, but needed an evidence-based policy that recognised the long-term role of gas in the state’s energy mix to encourage investment in vast untapped gas reserves in Gippsland and the Otway Basin, Australian Energy Producers state director Peter Kos said.

IEEFA energy finance analyst Kevin Morrison told a webinar Victoria’s gas demand measures would wipe out the domestic gas shortfall for 2029 currently predicted by AEMO. And when considered with APA Group’s network expansion plans, the shortfall could be pushed out to 2034. “That's when the Gippsland Basin gas, which is the dominant supply to the Victorian market, is predicted to completely run out.”

Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel said it was “passing strange” that a policy putting Victoria in a nation-leading role on electrification was widely depicted as a backflip.

Expert view

“There’s about four or five debates that are getting mixed up with each other in a really unhelpful way. There’s residential electrification, which is the no-brainer to end all no-brainers - we’ve got the technology, it’s already delivering affordability benefits for households - we just need to get on with it. And there’s getting manufacturers and food processors off gas which, if you’re using low-temperature processes, is absolutely possible but requires a bit of support. Industry that’s another separate debate, it’s going to take longer, and there’s different stories for different types of industry. Then you’ve got gas peakers, which is supporting the renewable transition - we probably do need them for the next 20-25 years. And then there is the argument that we need to be securing more gas, but that gets conflated with gas exports.”

Luke Menzel
CEO, Energy Efficiency Council

Rich in feedstocks for green shipping

Australia should move up the value chain in a number of areas where it has a comparative advantage, including making green shipping fuel, Superpower Institute Chair Rod Sims told a maritime decarbonisation summit.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has developed mandatory regulations that are set to be formally adopted in October 2025 before entry into force in 2027. Covering ocean-going vessels over 5,000 gross tonnage, which are responsible for 85% of emissions from international shipping, the measures include a new fuel standard and a global pricing mechanism for emissions.

“The IMO, in providing an effective world carbon price for shipping fuel, is providing Australia an opportunity. The question is whether we will grasp it now. Do so and we boost Australia’s economy and productivity, and provide a hedge against declining exports of fossil fuels. Do so and the world benefits from one of the cheapest sources of green fuels. What will our Government now do? Hopefully it will put in place grants for innovation from early projects, assist with infrastructure and deal with our system of embarrassingly slow project approvals.” - Superpower Institute Chair Rod Sims

The European Union has already enacted two pivotal regulations to decarbonise maritime transport: the inclusion of shipping in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the implementation of the FuelEU Maritime Regulation.

Catch up

Capital

Macquarie Asset Management’s Green Investment Group’s global battery storage platform Eku Energy marked its entry into New Zealand with the acquisition of a project in partnership with Helios Energy. Located in Waikato, the 300MW battery energy storage project will connect to Transpower’s Whakamaru substation.

Shell denied it was in talks to acquire BP, after the Wall Street Journal reported early discussions had taken place. (Reuters)

The Global Wind Energy Council downgraded its short-term outlook for offshore wind by 24% on the back of macroeconomic headwinds, failed auctions, supply chain constraints and increasing policy instability, particularly in the US. The offshore wind industry added another 8GW of capacity in 2024, making it the fourth highest year ever, with governments in Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, Brazil and Colombia “working with the industry to establish policies and regulations to fast-track offshore wind”.


Projects

Campaigning in Tasmania ahead of the July 19 state election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was asked whether ACEN Australia’s $3 billion Robbins Island wind farm would ever get up under the current EPBC Act or wait for new laws.

“No, we're considering the proposal. The state government had that assessment for seven years. Seven years we were waiting. So the new minister quite rightly is showing due diligence with the project. I know there is some opposition to it, but we think that renewable energy is really important.” - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

Tackling significant technical, social and governance challenges to electrification and the transition away from gas, existing multi-owned apartments will be studied by the ANU’s Centre for Energy Systems in an ACT government-funded project. (City News)

“The research team will use energy modelling to explore options for apartments and how they stack up in terms of emissions reductions, costs and savings. It will integrate these models with insights from social research into the needs, aspirations and challenges of apartment residents and owners, and the challenges and opportunities of the strata system. We think the main insight will be that there’s more than one way to electrify a building.” - Centre for Energy Systems Research Fellow Dr Wendy Russell

Policy

The Queensland Renewable Energy Council said it was encouraging to see support for renewable energy infrastructure, and the broader regional economic development it enables, in Treasurer David Janetzki’s first budget. Key allocations included:

  • $2.4 billion for CopperString, unlocking vast renewable energy potential across North and North West Queensland (Powerlink Queensland)
  • The 114 MW Lockyer Energy Project near Gatton (Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners and Stanwell Corporation Limited)
  • $79 million to progress development of CleanCo Queensland’s Mt Rawdon and Stanwell Corporation Limited’s Big T pumped hydro projects, as well as continued investigations into the Capricornia Energy Hub project with CS Energy
  • $355 million for early works on the Borumba pumped hydro project (Queensland Hydro and QIC)

The NSW State Budget included $2.1 billion to the Transmission Acceleration Facility (TAF), primarily to support the five Renewable Energy Zones (Central-West Orana, New England, Hunter-Central Coast, Illawarra and South West), which almost doubled funding for the TAF.

“This Budget announcement marks a major step forward in fast-tracking the construction of transmission lines and energy storage systems necessary to integrate new wind and solar projects into the grid. With this investment, NSW continues to lead the nation in its dedication to building the infrastructure needed to unlock the full potential of renewable energy while phasing out outdated and unreliable coal-fired power stations.” - Clean Energy Council CEO Kane Thornton

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s latest Wholesale Electricity Market Electricity Statement of Opportunities (WEM ESOO) warned Western Australia that investment in energy storage alone will not suffice, particularly when record extreme heatwave cooling loads coincide with multiple generator outages or low wind conditions.

Speaking at the Pilbara Summit, the Superpower Institute’s WA Program Director Jessica Shaw explored what she called the “WA Trilemma” - the interlocking challenges of energy security, industrial competitiveness, and institutional capability. Shaw called for courage and an end to outdated debates. “Because what’s at stake is far bigger than climate targets. It’s our jobs, our industries, and our long-term strategic strength,” she said.

The UK Climate Change Committee said 38% of the emissions cuts needed to hit the country’s 2030 target were now backed by “credible” policies, up from 25% two years earlier, making the government’s climate advisors more optimistic the UK can meet its 2030 international climate goal, and 2050 target to cut emissions to net zero. Most of the progress on cutting emissions has come from the electricity sector. (Carbon Brief) (BBC News)

The Spanish government approved legislation aimed at strengthening the resilience of the country’s electrical system, including boosting electrification, storage and flexibility along with more dynamic grid planning in the wake of April’s major power outage. (PV Magazine)


Regulation

Consultation opened on rules to support the renewable hydrogen Guarantee of Origin scheme and its two types of certificates: Product GO (PGO) and Renewable Electricity GO (REGO). PGO certificates prove where a product was made, and the emissions associated with its production, transport and storage. REGO certificates provide information on when, where and how renewable electricity was produced, allowing users to make verifiable claims to renewable electricity use. July 18 is the deadline for submissions on:

  • methodology determination for Product GO, starting with hydrogen produced via electrolysis
  • regulations on cost recovery charges
  • the approach to energy storage systems for renewable electricity certification.

Technology

Fortescue, in collaboration with digital tech company Trovio and the Green Hydrogen Organisation, said it was issued the world’s first digital fuel certificate for an ammonia-to-ship transfer. Designed to set new benchmarks for transparency and traceability, the certificate captured granular data on the sustainability attributes of the fuel - including origin, handling, and transfer specifics - during a recent fuel transfer operation at the Port of Rotterdam by the dual-fuelled Fortescue Green Pioneer, which runs on ammonia and diesel.

“By digitising the fuel lifecycle and enabling automated compliance, we reduce friction, increase integrity, and accelerate global adoption of zero-emission fuels.” - Trovio CEO Jon Deane

Are vanadium flow batteries suitable for data centres? As a growing number of tech giants look to acquire massive power supplies on short timelines, it could be opening a door for mature, but as-yet under-utilised energy storage technologies. (Data Dive)


Climate

A growing number of court cases are targeting the use of carbon credits to offset emissions, and more climate-related cases are reaching apex courts, according to the London School of Economics’s latest analysis of global trends in climate litigation. Almost 3,000 climate cases were filed up to the end of 2024, in nearly 60 countries globally.

The United Kingdom, Singapore and Kenya launched a joint initiative at London’s Climate Week to boost demand for carbon credits. The Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets said it would release new guidelines at the upcoming COP30 climate conference in Brazil to give businesses across jurisdictions a shared set of principles and more confidence to invest in the “proven but underused climate financing tool”.


People

Two QUT students were selected for inaugural Powerlink-funded scholarships. Ike Randall was awarded the First Nations Engineers scholarship, while Divya Joy was awarded the Else Shepherd scholarship named after Powerlink’s first and longest serving chair, who was a life-long advocate for women’s participation in engineering.

Spanish energy giant Iberdrola named Pedro Azagra Blazquez as its new group CEO replacing Armando Martinez Martinez. Blazquez was previously chief of Iberdrola’s US subsidiary Avangrid. (Reuters)


Research

Analysts at energy think tank Ember said electrification was a more consequential race than renewable energy development in a new report highlighting electrification as a central driver of decarbonisation, energy security and commercial value. It said while renewable energy deployment had advanced across much of the world, progress on electrification had been far more uneven, and this was creating a new class of energy leaders and leaving others behind.

A “real zero” report by the UTS Institute for Sustainable Futures and advocacy organisation Climate Integrity named three companies operating in Australia as global decarbonisation leaders: Fortescue, Lendlease and IKEA. Despite operating in sectors seen as harder to abate, these companies were said to be taking a vanguard position on emissions reductions, investing in the technology, demonstrating a commercially viable route, and knowledge sharing for even greater impact

“There are new and better ways of operating, through lower cost, more efficient technologies. Fortescue is seizing these opportunities rather than foisting the problem on the next generation. The fossil fuel era is winding down and Fortescue intends to be at the forefront of what comes next.” - Fortescue Metals CEO Dino Otranto

Hydropower generation recovered strongly in 2024, rising by 10% to 4,578TWh, while pumped storage saw a 5% increase in global capacity to 189GW, according to the latest outlook from hydropower advocacy group IHA. The report found hydropower supplied 14.3% of global power in 2024, with global hydropower development still dominated by China. IHA President Malcolm Turnbull said the market alone would not deliver on hydropower and that “bold policy action and faster permitting” were required.

What's on

June 30
Queensland Budget Address

Queensland Treasurer David Janetzki will deliver his first State Budget address at this CEDA event in Brisbane.


July 1
Safeguard Symposium

John Connor will host his last event as CEO of the Carbon Market Institute, leading experts for a discussion in Sydney of market dynamics under the Safeguard Mechanism, finance and investment in ACCU supply, carbon price reform, and insights on climate policy.


July 17-18
Carbon Capture APAC Summit

Chevron General Manager of Energy Transition David Fallon, Beach Energy CEO Brett Woods, CarbonNet Project Director Jane Burton, Geoscience Director of Offshore Energy Systems Merrie-Ellen Gunning are among speakers at this event in Melbourne.


July 22
Smart Energy South Australia

Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen will headline at the Smart Energy Council conference and expo in Adelaide.


July 29-30
Australian Clean Energy Summit (ACES) 2025

AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman, AEMC Chair Anna Collyer, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, AGL CEO Damien Nicks, Iberdrola Australia CEO Ross Rolfe and Squadron Energy CEO Rob Wheals are among the lineup at the Clean Energy Council’s flagship event in Sydney.


July 30
Australian Sustainable Finance Summit

Treasury Deputy Secretary Angelia Grant, Original Power Executive Director Karrina Nolan, and Australian Office of Financial Management CEO Anna Hughes are among the line-up at this Sydney event.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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