Prices up 25% if we get it wrong


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Rule maker eyes home battery benefits
  • Keeping the lights on at the right price
  • Principles for public funding of green projects

Rule maker projects price of getting transition wrong

Further delays to wind and transmission projects along with prolonging the life of existing coal-fired power plants threaten to add 25% to annual household electricity prices, according to new analysis from the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC).

The rule maker adds its voice to industry calls for faster planning and approvals to get new renewable energy and transmission projects across the line in its Residential Electricity Price Trends 2025 report.

It also sounds a fresh alarm on the cost of failing to coordinate consumer energy resources effectively, with the booming home battery program offering the potential to reduce electricity costs for all households by up to 3% annually, but only if well-managed.

The report projects prices to fall by 5% over the next five years, supported by new renewable projects, but says the build-out is not likely to be fast enough to avoid a 13% price rise over the subsequent five years to 2035.

In the meantime, it points to the benefits of supporting households to go fully electric, helping to avoid costly gas.

"Our analysis clearly shows renewable energy and batteries drives prices down, we see this in the first five years. The risk of prices rising after 2030 only emerges if we slow down renewable deployment just as coal plants retire. This is a timing challenge, not a technology cost issue. With the right pace of investment, we can manage the energy transition while keeping prices stable."
AEMC Chair Anna Collyer

Expert view

“As a nation, we have spent the past several years focused on the transition of the large-scale energy system to renewables, which is obviously critical. But, as this report shows, that is not leading to lower prices for consumers. It is time to place more focus on investments in consumer energy resources (CER) and electrification, which the report shows can lead to meaningful price reductions, lower consumer bills and provide a low-cost energy system.

“We welcome the report’s recommendations to promote greater adoption of CER and ensuring consumers are fairly rewarded for the benefits their energy resources can make to the overall energy system. As the report indicates, by turning our focus to consumers themselves, and their investment in rooftop solar, batteries, electric cars and other flexible devices, we can avoid the increase in prices.”

Brian Spak
GM Advocacy & Policy, Energy Consumers Australia

AEMO's billion-dollar question

How Australia’s energy market can best deliver the services needed to keep the lights on in the transition is a real-life billion-dollar question.

Blackouts may be every energy minister’s worst nightmare, writes UNSW Energy Institute CEO Dani Alexander on The Energy today, but AEMO’s latest system security report sends home just how high the costs of synchronous units operating under direction can be, and why getting procurement right is so critical to system security that doesn’t push avoidable costs onto consumers.

Expert view

"Deep in the report – Chapter 10 of 11 – AEMO discusses how emerging technologies could contribute to system security in the future.

For grid-forming inverters, AEMO seems unconvinced that they can reliably provide protection quality fault current. AEMO’s procurement of Transitional Services will help us better understand the services GFM inverters can supply, including through trials of protection-quality fault current. However, the plan is still silent on the potential for whole-of-system simulation (including digital twins) to accelerate our understanding of greater penetration of inverter-based generation and its impact on power system security. This would be a great addition to next year’s plan when it is merged with the Engineering Roadmap.

Until the results of the grid forming inverter trials are in, we are relying on the syncons procured by transmission network service providers. The question that remains is, what if the syncons don’t arrive in time?”

Dani Alexander
CEO, UNSW Energy Institute

Dani Alexander will be moderating a free webinar for The Energy this Friday 5th December with Mark Twidell (UNSW), James Brown (SA Power Networks) and Jason Krstanoski (Transgrid) to explore these questions and more on power system security. Click here for more information and to register.

Principles for public funding of green projects

The independent Centre for Policy Development (CPD) has proposed a framework for structuring government funding to ensure communities are strengthened, not weakened, by the energy transition.

Allocating more taxpayer support to businesses offering greater community benefits would help to build the necessary social licence for renewable energy projects and new low-carbon industries, according to co-authors Mara Hammerle, Esther Koh and Toby Phillips.

“It should be more than a box-ticking exercise. If developers are rewarded for doing more, we’ll see a race to the top, with stronger competition, better engagement, and real improvements for communities. There are billions of public dollars flowing into projects for the net-zero transition. We can ensure that investment builds stronger communities as well as new industries.”
CPD Economic Director Toby Phillips

Catch Up

Policy

Victoria’s Auditor-General said the state was “almost certain” of a disorderly energy transition, resulting in job losses, supply disruptions and price volatility for households and businesses. The AG’s audit of whether Victoria is on track to achieve its renewable energy objectives found it should meet its 2030 storage target, but would not meet its 2032 offshore wind target with Renewable Energy Target auction projects off track and key transmission projects delayed. The report comes as VicGrid assumes responsibility for planning the Victorian transmission network. (The Age)

Industry and Innovation Minister Tim Ayres said the government was working with the states to make sure data centres were “making a net contribution to energy security”. His comments came on the back of the government’s National AI Plan that backs data centres to deliver investment and productivity growth. “This is an unparalleled opportunity for new data centre investment to underwrite, to pay for new generation and new transmission capability,” Ayres said, citing Microsoft's 15-year power purchase agreement with the Walla Walla Solar Farm.

Some 70% of renters are avoiding heating and cooling their homes to save money as energy prices rise, according to the latest Consumer Energy Report Card from consumer advocate Energy Consumers Australia. The survey of 4,000 households found 40% of renters say they cannot keep their home at a comfortable temperature without using a lot of energy. ECA says the findings underline the need for minimum energy efficiency standards for rental properties, a measure 65% of Australians polled by SEC Newgate say they support.


Capital

Lithium and renewable energy developer Vulcan Energy (ASX: VUL) secured $3.9 billion in funding from European and German government agencies, commercial banks and strategic industrial partners to construct phase one of its project in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley. The company plans to extract lithium and simultaneously produce geothermal energy to sell into the local grid. (AFR)

Private equity firm Five V Capital together with the green bank the Clean Energy Finance Corporation acquired a major stake in commercial and industrial solar and battery specialist Agile Energy. The company said the deal would help it scale to deliver more than 200MW of solar and battery projects for Australian businesses under long-term power purchase agreements.

A $171 million Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) grant will help the Hunter Valley Solar Foundry project to build a solar manufacturing facility in the Hunter Valley. The facility aims to produce glass solar modules and provide production capability to other manufacturers.


Projects

Queensland government-owned energy company Stanwell signed an MOU for exclusivity over Quinbrook’s proposed Gladstone Energy Hub project. The hub is expected to include 1,080MW of open-cycle gas turbines fitted with integrated synchronous condenser capabilities complimented by 780MW of 8-hour duration battery energy storage system (BESS) to provide firming capacity for Queensland’s energy system.

Petroleum giant BP scrapped plans to develop a large-scale hydrogen production and carbon capture facility in England, citing deteriorating demand for hydrogen by industrial consumers. The site is slated for a new data centre development and BP said “the two proposals are incompatible on the same piece of land”. (ESG Today)


Regulation

Policymakers should avoid raising fixed network tariffs as part of upcoming pricing reforms, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said, arguing such a move could weaken incentives for energy efficiency and peak demand reduction. Instead, IEEFA says retailers and intermediaries should provide services and software to help manage customers’ load on the network.


Technology

Transgrid said it had successfully installed two new circuit breakers on 132kV transmission lines at Gunnedah as part of its plan to decarbonise the high-voltage network in NSW and the ACT. The new circuit breakers don't use SF6, a greenhouse gas commonly used in electrical switchgear that is more potent than carbon dioxide. The network owner said it would now continue with trials assessing the viability of the alternatives.


Climate

Iberdrola Australia joined the carbon credit market with a 688-hectare reforestation and biodiversity project on South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula. It said its Carbon2Nature unit will give customers access to Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) “aligned with best practices in carbon removal, alongside tangible support for biodiversity and cultural outcomes in collaboration with local communities and Traditional Owners”.


People

Caitlin Matthews is starting as the Executive Officer for the Climate Change Policy, Adaptation and Risk Division of DCCEEW


Research

Monash University launched a new research hub with the aim of making steel production greener and more sustainable. The ARC Research Hub for Smart Process Design and Control brings together researchers from Monash, Macquarie University, University of Queensland, UNSW, and Western Sydney University, alongside industry partners including Rio Tinto, Baowu Steel and China Steel Corporation, to develop smarter, low-emission steelmaking processes.

What's On

December 5
Keeping the lights on - syncons vs batteries

Mark Twidell, Industry Professor of Practice at the UNSW Energy Institute, Transgrid Executive General Manager of Network Jason Krstanoski and James Brown, Senior Manager Enterprise Innovation at SA Power Networks will speak at this webinar from The Energy, moderated by UNSW Energy Institute CEO Dani Alexander.


December 8
The Energy Charter CEO Council Forum

SA Power Networks CEO Andrew Bills will join Essential Energy CEO John Cleland, EnergyAustralia CEO Mark Collette, Energy Charter CEO Sabiene Heindl and AusNet Services CEO David Smales at this online event on “delivering better customer + community outcomes”.


December 9, Sydney and December 11, Melbourne
Energy Tetris

The Energy’s first live event will feature Quinbrook CEO Brian Restall, Energy Security Corporation CEO Paul Peters, Southerly Ten Chief Development Officer Erin Coldham, Hydro Tasmania Chairman Richard Bolt, Westwind Managing Director Tobias Geiger, Atmos Renewables GM of Development Allison Hawke, RWE Renewables APAC Head of Regulatory Affairs Matthew Dickie, ASL GM System Planning & Financial Markets, Melanie Koerner, UNSW Associate Professor Iain MacGill and Senior Research Associate Dylan McConnell and Energy Edge MD Josh Stabler.


December 17
Public Forum: AusNet Transmission Revenue Proposal 2027-32

The Australian Energy Regulator will host an online public forum for stakeholders to ask questions about AusNet's 2027-32 transmission revenue proposal.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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