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Hey Reader, in today's edition:
- Renewables opportunities for COP31
- Countering net zero misinformation
- Build your own social licence
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Can COP31 land an electrification goal?
Brazil’s experience in attempting to secure a new “bolt on” to Dubai goals holds lessons for Australia’s incoming mantle as head of the COP31 negotiations, especially any attempt Australia may make to propose a new end-use electrification goal – say of 35% by 2035, Smart Energy Council’s Thom Woodroofe and John Grimes write.
One positive development at COP30 was a commitment to more investment in grids and storage – a key bottleneck with more than 3,000GW of renewables projects (half of which are in advanced stages) stalled in connection queues awaiting transmission buildout, storage scale-up, or market reforms which are crucial for delivering the resulting installations.
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Countering net zero misinformation
A briefing note from the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) takes aim at the “false narrative” that Australia’s efforts on emissions reduction come at the expense of energy affordability in electricity and gas.
The policy review, Improving energy affordability aligns with net zero, found all the key opportunities were either aligned with net zero or neutral to climate policy outcomes.
Renewables are the lowest-cost technology for new-build electricity generation, which is reflected in their rapid global expansion. Nuclear power would be significantly more costly than new coal or renewables, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) is “prohibitively costly” with its cheapest application expected to be in gas processing — not twinned with coal plants.
“Renewables are not driving up electricity costs – ageing coal plants, high gas prices and inefficient markets are. There is a lot of room for improvement when it comes to energy affordability – but it is not about choosing a different electricity generation mix. It is about fixing inefficient energy markets and regulation, increasing competition, and acting on the demand side.”
Lead author Amandine Denis-Ryan, CEO of IEEFA Australia
Cost competitiveness remains the defining characteristic of renewable energy sources, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has said. In 2024, 91% of all newly commissioned utility-scale renewable projects delivered electricity at a lower cost than the cheapest new fossil fuel-fired alternative.
There have been bottlenecks in Australia’s deployment of renewables, as well as delays and cost overruns for transmission and large pumped hydro projects, which have put pressure on the system, but that is common for large capital projects and not confined to renewables and enabling technologies, the analysis finds.
Modelling by consulting firm Jacobs for the Clean Energy Council found that “relying on coal power and significant amounts of expensive gas generation for longer would increase the average household bill by $449 a year in 2030 and $877 for a small business.”
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Build your own social licence
Australia’s shift to renewable energy can also be beneficial for regional housing, if developers and local councils can collaborate, and if housing is made an essential consideration in renewable energy development, case studies show.
A RE-Alliance report found renewable energy companies who make housing a whole-of-business consideration, rather than taking a project-by-project approach, have a greater capacity to build their own social licence.
Prefabricated housing can be high-quality, rapid to deploy and flexible, and investing in the full supply chain supports local business development, as seen in Central Queensland where Energy Estate and Hinman Group developed worker accommodation designed to transition into long-term housing for locals.
Refurbishment of an existing facility, which was Squadron Energy’s approach in the Wellington region in NSW, supported re-use of a vacant building and reduced the need and impact of temporary rentals and new-build construction
A Community Benefit Plan is another tool available, but requires a willingness from companies to enter into longer-term partnerships and provide funding, for example for housing support for survivors of family violence in south-west Victoria.
“We are working with our communities to think of what is possible with these funds and taking a longer view on what programs or initiatives can be funded on a multi-year basis. These programs compound in their effectiveness over time. Ultimately, these funds are under community control and so we are getting ideas tailored to the community coming through.”
Owen Boushel, Manager Stakeholder Engagement, Tilt Renewables
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Capital
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An analysis of the costs of decommissioning Australia’s offshore oil and gas industry, undertaken by energy analysis firm Xodus and only recently published by the Department of Industry, found the liability falling into a range of $21 billion to $87 billion, with the majority of the spend (58%) over the next 15 years. Yet the true price tag is likely far higher and closer to the combined market value of Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) and Santos (ASX: STO), Wilderness Society campaigner Fern Cadman warns. “Xodus’ analysis excludes infrastructure in state waters and new projects from the past year. It assumes low inflation, current access to vessels, relies on UK data and assumes industry developments such as supply chains and shared facilities that we’ve yet to see.”
 Projects
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Hydro Tasmania called for proposals from new wind and solar developments, saying it was looking to sign a commercial offtake agreement with a project (or projects) that can deliver up to 1500GWh annually and be operational within the next five to six years. Executive General Manager Commercial Vedran Kovac said the investment would enable existing and future energy-intensive industries to expand in Tasmania. “The best way to meet future demand is a combination of wind, solar and hydropower,” he said.
The Queensland government has fast-tracked the $662 million northern extension of Peabody’s Centurion Mine. Declared a coordinated project, it will export coking coal to steelmaking customers through to 2055. The mine is expected to annually produce up to 7.1 million tonnes of coal and extract up to 10 petajoules of coal seam gas to power the mine, with any surplus converted to LNG for domestic supply.
Policy
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Environment Minister Murray Watt is confident of a deal on his changes to environmental protection laws. “We are going to pass these laws this week, and it's going to happen with either the Coalition or the Greens," Watt told reporters in Canberra. Shadow Environment Minister Angie Bell said the Coalition was “not in a rush to fail" but was up for working constructively with Labor. The crucial and less headline-grabbing details will be in the standards that hang off the main bill, which are yet to be completed. A Senate inquiry will still report back in March, regardless of this week’s shenanigans.
The current draft legislation leaves Australia exposed to significant legal, environmental and political risk, experts warn, because the proposed changes to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act do not require the government to assess the climate impacts of new fossil fuel projects. (The Conversation)
Regulation
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The Fair Work Commission has granted an application by the Net Zero Economy Authority to require AGL to assist more than 100 workers impacted by the closure of the gas-fired Torrens Island power station in Port Adelaide to obtain new jobs. It is NZEA's first application for an Energy Industry Jobs Plan and the first ruling of its type for the Fair Work Commission. (The Aus)
Climate
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Australia is significantly underinvesting in climate adaptation and needs a coordinated national strategy to help mobilise the tens of billions of dollars needed, the Actuaries Institute warned in a report. Co-author and Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC) Director for Climate Resilience Fergus Pitt urged federal, state and territory treasuries to review their cost benefit analysis methodology to ensure adaptation projects are fairly valued and to more accurately calibrate new incentives.
People
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The Queensland Government appointed a new chair and five new members to the board of Coexistence Queensland, formerly the GasFields Commission. The group was given an expanded role last year extending to engagement on land access issues for renewable energy projects. Former Queensland Rural and Industry Development Authority CEO Cameron MacMillan was appointed chair, and former Origin Energy executive Blessing Agada joined the board along with Andrew Brier, Sarah Cox, Sarah Gooley and Natasha Winters.
Research
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A study of excess solar energy production in Christchurch and Auckland has calculated that the surplus could be used to generate green hydrogen during periods of abundant sunshine. Using the curtailed electricity in this way could drop the levelised cost of green hydrogen to US$1.50–2.80/kg from US$5. “Our study shows that rooftop solar can do more than just power our homes. It also represents an opportunity to support Aotearoa’s move toward a cleaner and more renewable energy system,” says study co-author Stella Nadine Steidl from the University of Canterbury. (Energy Conversion and Management)
Random
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Researchers at Northern Arizona University and the Smithsonian brewed a new way of understanding how rainforests will survive with climate change — making tea with living leaves from the top of the canopy. (Phys.org)
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What's On
November 25
The NEM Review and Firming up the Transition
NEM Review Chair Tim Nelson, CEFC CEO Ian Learmonth, Transgrid CFO Nadine Lennie, and AEMO Executive GM Violette Mouchaileh will speak at this CEDA event in Sydney.
November 26
National Press Club
Deputy Opposition Leader and former energy spokesman Ted O’Brien will address the National Press Club at this event in Canberra.
November 26
Efficient Electric Homes: Market Acceleration Summit
Architect Adrian Joyce, Secretary General of EuroACE - Energy Efficient Buildings, and the Director of the Renovate Europe Campaign, Clare McLaughlin, Head of Division, Energy Performance, at the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Grace Tam, Head of Consumer Finance at the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, and Energy Efficiency CEO Luke Menzel will speak at this Sydney event.
December 5
Keeping the lights on - syncons vs batteries
Mark Twidell, Industry Professor of Practice at the UNSW Energy Institute, and Transgrid Executive General Manager of Network Jason Krstanoski will speak at this webinar from The Energy, moderated by UNSW Energy Institute CEO Dani Alexander.
December 9, Sydney and December 11, Melbourne
Energy Tetris
The Energy’s first live event will feature Quinbrook CEO Brian Restall, Energy Security Corporation CEO Paul Peters, Southerly Ten Chief Development Officer Erin Coldham, Hydro Tasmania Chairman Richard Bolt, CS Energy Head of Policy & Regulation Alison Demaria, Atmos Renewables GM of Development Allison Hawke, ASL GM System Planning & Financial Markets, Melanie Koerner, UNSW Senior Research Associate Dylan McConnell and Energy Edge MD Josh Stabler, with more speakers to be confirmed soon.
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