Making the NEM 'transparent'


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Reaction to the NEM review
  • Open source the secret sauce for GenCost
  • Pivot points from the electricity stack

NEM review 'fails' on wraparound reforms

The finalised National Electricity Market (NEM) review report confirmed the Panel’s recommendation for an Electricity Services Entry Mechanism (ESEM) to support the next phase of investment in the grid and underplayed the power of consumer energy resources/distributed energy resources.

Expert view

“Great care is needed in designing the Electricity Services Entry Mechanism – from contract types to key features – to ensure it supports the transition effectively. CEIG agrees that standardisation and fungibility are important, but the ultimate test is whether the ESEM can live up to its name — to be an effective mechanism to facilitate entry into the market. The ESEM contracts must be fit-for-purpose to unlock the large-scale investment needed to decarbonise the Australian economy and must be designed to give investors the confidence to commit capital."

We welcome the establishment of a Contract Co-design working group in 2026 to refine the Panel's approach. Over the last few months and with our advisors Baringa Partners, CEIG put together some commercial advice that was published alongside the final report. We are keen to pick up those conversations in 2026 to ensure that contracts are fit-for-purpose, particularly those to be offered to wind developers. As the providers of capital for tomorrow’s infrastructure, investors must be closely consulted in this critical process."

Marilyne Crestias
Head of Policy & Advocacy, Clean Energy Investor Group

Expert view

“Building trust in rural and regional communities for the energy shift is critical to keeping Australia’s energy transition on track and to delivering energy projects at the lowest possible cost. Which is why we are disappointed that the review panel considers the achievement of broader social and economic outcomes through renewable energy projects to be ‘non-financial considerations’. This means they will not be embedded in the ESEM process (as currently done under the Capacity Investment Scheme), but as optional additional processes.

We strongly support the comment by the review panel that a ‘community-led strategic planning process’ — at the REZ level — would play an important role strengthening coordination, reducing the burden on developers, and enabling a streamlined framework for project development that drives positive social outcomes. But what we need to see now is ownership on who is obligated to deliver this."

Andrew Bray
National Director, RE-Alliance

Expert view

“The NEM Review confirms what the market is already seeing. As large-scale batteries grow, electricity prices are being increasingly influenced by storage opportunity costs and how effectively they are optimised through their bidding.

The ESEM will succeed if batteries are operated to deliver energy, shaping and firming when the system needs them. Embedding the ESEM in legislation makes it enduring, but reliability outcomes still depend on procurement settings and the performance of an asset. The NEM Review is unusually frank about the derivatives market falling behind the physical transition. Batteries are being built into a market that still struggles to price long-term flexibility properly.”

Sahand Karimi
CEO, OptiGrid

Expert view

“The report recommends a broad slate of mechanisms, designed to maintain market liquidity while ensuring new assets can be built when needed. A key aspect is the development of a ‘new language’ of financial contracts that will standardise the valuation and trading of energy output from renewables and batteries. In practical terms, this makes the price of renewable energy transparent and lets buyers source clean power from the market without complex operator-specific negotiations. These contracts will support the workings of a new entry support mechanism, the ESEM, where their standardised form will allow transparent comparison of the value offered by different projects and later allow that value to be recycled into the private market.

The report has now been endorsed by four out of five NEM jurisdictions, with the lack of support from Queensland notable but not unexpected. While the Panel were careful in designing recommendations to deliver – not impose – jurisdictional policy, it was always going to be harder to make the case for reform to a state with energy policy better aligned with the status quo. The saving grace may be that Queensland has not publicly rejected the review, either. With luck, discussions will continue and a pathway will be found that offers clear value to all states.”

Thomas MacDonald
Senior Consultant, Baringa

Expert view

“In response to stakeholder concerns, the Panel refined its approach to Price Responsive Resources (PRR), notably shifting large consumer energy resources (CER) aggregations from active dispatch to visibility-only reporting. It is helpful the Panel acknowledged that mandating dispatch mode for all resources was impractical and could stifle innovation. However, these refinements did not constitute a retreat from the position that mandatory visibility is essential for operational efficiency. The Panel rejected the alternative of improving forecasting through modelling and machine learning.

What is striking is that the NEM review did not seem to grasp the full implications of a DER/CER-dominated future and it failed to adopt a demand-side-first approach. The reforms are focused narrowly on supporting supply to replace failing coal generation, which is a large task, but a bigger picture view of wraparound reforms, especially to support the uptake and utilisation of flexible demand would have lowered the cost of the transition.”

Gabrielle Kuiper
Energy, sustainability and climate change professional

Open source the secret sauce for GenCost

Meanwhile the GenCost report reiterated that electricity generation costs will always be lower under a renewable grid.

Pivot points from the electricity stack

Standing offers have increased across all jurisdictions over the past 12 months by between 1% and 10% depending on where you live, according to Vinnies’ December tariff tracker observations. Taking a long-term price perspective, comparing 2009 to now, price-increases range from 98% to 138%. It’s a similar story for gas with recent gas pricing increases between 2% and 9% and gas price changes since 2009 ranging from 134% to 208%.

Expert view

“We believe we’re at a tipping point with on average about 61% of households across the NEM having a smart meter — this ranges from about 39% of the ACT to 100% in Victoria. This digitisation of the electricity market suggests we’re out of tipping point in terms of volume with the potential to move from an analogue type energy market in selling kilowatts and megajoules to a services type market which would align with the AEMC’s pricing for a consumer drive in future. We’ve also seen a rebalancing in electricity retail contracts where proportionally more cost is being allocated into the fixed charge. A deep dive into time of use pricing and how retailers respond to network tariff design shows that there are major differences in retailers' practices between jurisdictions.”

Gavin Dufty
National Director Energy Policy and Research, St Vincent de Paul Society Australia

Catch Up

Capital

Tilt Renewables committed to start construction of the 108MW Waddi Wind Farm in the WA wheat belt, 150km north of Perth. “This will be the first wind farm to reach a Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2025 and shows that the investment drought for new projects in Australia is finally breaking,” CEO Anthony Fowler said. “We now have everything in place to start construction, strong financial backing from our investors, a 15-year supply contract with AGL, an offer to connect to the SWIS, and planning approvals from local Shire of Dandaragan, State and Federal authorities.” Construction will start early next year, targeting commercial operation in 2028.


Projects

Marinus Link awarded TasVic Greenlink (TVGL), a joint venture of DT Infrastructure and Samsung C&T, the $994 million contract for the construction of converter stations in Heybridge and Hazelwood, the installation of equipment, and the land cable civil works, spanning 90km across Gippsland. Marinus CEO Stephanie McGregor said the contract execution marked the final step in securing the capability and technology needed to start construction. “Our Marinus Link teams, alongside TVGL, will be out and about early next year to provide detailed information about construction activities and expected timelines,” she said.

JERA Nex bp is leaving New Zealand to “focus on other markets”. The NZ Wind Energy Association said the joint venture’s decision not to go ahead with a development off the coast of Taranaki was not a reflection of the abundant offshore wind resource or its long-term commercial potential. This decision underscores the importance of having an internationally competitive regulatory framework, seabed access certainty, and investment mechanisms to support large-scale, capital-intensive offshore wind projects, the industry body said. It’s the third developer to pull out of the area, after Bluefloat Energy and Sumitomo also withdrew, before a new permitting regime takes effect. (The Post)

VicGrid celebrated the completion of the Mortlake Turn-In project, which it said was a critical transmission upgrade that strengthens the grid and unlocks new renewable capacity. The project, delivered by AusNet Services in partnership with Consolidated Power Projects Australia, was subject to state government social procurement requirements that, as well as delivering value for money, projects deliver social and economic outcomes to benefit the community such as roles for women, hands-on experience for apprentices and First Nations businesses. Located north east of Warrnambool, the project connects a second 500kV transmission line to the Mortlake Terminal Station.


Policy

Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ budget update confirmed “responsible cost-of-living relief” would be delivered to Australian taxpayers via tax cuts, not energy bill handouts. Meanwhile, the economic plan will be advanced by “investing in cleaner energy and building a Future Made in Australia” through the $7.2 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, support for onshore production of low-carbon liquid fuels, establishing a critical minerals strategic reserve, and implementing the net-zero plan.

The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) has also seen a massive blowout in the costs of maintaining Labor’s handouts, according to the Greens. Leader Larissa Waters said a 25% levy on gas exports would solve the government’s challenges. “Fossil fuel subsidies continue to grow, costing an unsustainable $44.3 billion over the estimates while gas companies will pay 23% less tax under the broken PRRT.”

An extra $233 million for the CSIRO for 12 months is a welcome first step but more is needed, independent Senator David Pocock warned, calling for more stable, long-term funding for the national science agency in next year’s federal budget.


Regulation

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) began proceedings in the Federal Court against Transgrid following an investigation into the October 2024 power outages in Broken Hill and surrounding areas, when a severe weather event led to the failure of the transmission line that supplies area, alleging a breach of the National Electricity Rules with one of two back-up generators unavailable due to maintenance and the other experienced multiple outages. The AER is seeking pecuniary penalties, declarations and costs.

Photon New Energy is now an authorised electricity retailer, after getting the nod from the regulator.


Technology

The Australian Industry Renewable Heat Accelerator selected 12 projects that will support manufacturers and industry associations to switch to practical alternatives to gas-fired process heat. Process heat accounts for significant energy use and emissions across manufacturing sectors and transitioning to renewable heat via technologies including industrial heat pumps, thermal storage and direction electrification can cut emissions, improve energy resilience and support Australia’s climate targets.


Research

The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) published the Project Edith Stage 3 Insights Report on Ausgrid’s 1,200-customer trial of dynamic network pricing. By sending 5-minute, location-specific price signals to aggregators and retailers, Edith is designed to encourage households to shift energy use and solar exports in response to network conditions and constraints. Co-author Grids Energy consultant Mitch O’Neill said in a LinkedIn post he’s looking forward to seeing this approach applied to larger commercial customers and more asset types such as EVs and other flexible loads.

Global coal use has "plateaued", the International Energy Agency said in its closely watched annual coal report on Wednesday, but 2025 will see it hit record highs and 2026 should be similarly large thanks to the Trump administration's policies. Beyond 2026, the report predicted a 5% decline in the global trade for coal through to 2030. (AFR)

What's On

December 18
First Nations Equity: Agreement Precedent Sharing

The commercial equity arrangement Wambal Bila negotiated with AMPYR Australia for the Bulabul Battery project will be reviewed at a webinar, with the legal documents offering a template for First Nations equity participation in other projects.

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The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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