Hopes and targets


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Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Electricity sector plan explained
  • Future exports key to emissions reduction
  • Will Bonn do a Bradbury on COP31?

The electricity plan for orderly disruption

A high renewable build rate will need to be maintained to 2050, underpinned by electricity markets and policies to provide investment certainty as Australia transitions away from a model driven by government support.

The Electricity and Energy Sector Plan released as part of the 2035 climate policy suite continues the overhaul of a historically coal-dependent electricity network. But the existing 2030 target for 82% renewables remains unchanged and no target has been set for 2035.

“I’m confident we’ll reach the 82% in 2030 target … We haven’t set a particular target (for 2035),” Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen told ABC’s Insiders.

Asked why not, Bowen said the federal government had set a 2035 emissions reduction target and the NEM review led by Professor Tim Nelson “will govern our approach” from 2030 to 2035.

Many of the policies required to decarbonise the electricity and energy sector must be implemented by states and territories, with electricity supply regulated under state and territory legislation.

Local governments can deploy renewable and energy storage on their own real estate and play a key role as an enabler with planning approvals — or not.

“The reality is, the markets that have underpinned our prosperity for generations, they're changing. The good news is that we're really well placed to be able to provide goods and services to those markets in the future that will continue to grow our economy and prosperity. What we did find is that an orderly transition for Australia, compared to the counterfactual of doing nothing or a disorderly transition, will see multiple-times economic growth and increases in living standards for Australians.”
Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean on Insiders

Future exports key to emissions reduction

Treasury modelling for the Albanese government’s 2035 carbon emissions target forecasts sharp declines in coal and gas exports over the next decade, at odds with the outlooks of producers.

The Treasury projections are based on International Energy Agency forecasts for big shifts in demand and, if right, would see the resources sector become a surprise star performer in Australia’s projected emissions cuts between now and 2050.

Expert view

"There is a bit of difference between the scenarios driven by local policy choices, but it's mostly about demand, and that is something that, in the government's view, is very much out of their hands.

"Activists disagree. But should that plunge in international demand for those exports result, that will have significant local economic implications, but it will also make it a few percentage points easier to achieve the higher end of these targets.”

Tennant Reed
Director of Climate Change and Energy, Australian Industry Group

Will Bonn do a Bradbury on COP31?

Australia could lose next year’s international climate talks to Germany if it can’t persuade Türkiye to relinquish its bid to host COP31.

The hosting rights are granted by consensus, not a vote, by United Nations members under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

“We have discussions with our Turkish friends this week,” Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen told the ABC while in New York.

“We have overwhelming support for our bid. This situation hasn’t really changed for a while. The UNFCCC rules rely on consensus and that means, yes, the two bidding countries sorting it out … Otherwise it goes to Bonn in Germany, which would be an unfortunate result.”

Meanwhile the 2025 Production Gap report, authored by the Stockholm Environment Institute, found governments plan to produce over 120% more fossil fuels than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.

“The increase in fossil fuel expansion plans over the last two years is alarming. While many governments see renewables as key to their energy security, others are betting against the clean energy transition,” Olivier Bois von Kursk, report co-author and Policy Advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, said.

Widespread mobilisations under the Draw the Line banner take place across more than 100 countries this week as world leaders prepare to present their updated climate plans at the UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ climate summit in New York on September 24.

Expert view

"Fossil fuels are on their last legs and the industry knows it. Despite trillions in public subsidies, and aggressive deal making designed to benefit shareholders in the near term, oil and gas has underperformed every other sector over the last 15 years. The industry is clinging to outdated, polluting products and lacks the expertise or intent to lead the transition to the cheaper, cleaner, and faster electrified system that is now taking shape.

Christiana Figueres
Founding Partner, Global Optimism

Actionable insights

Australian group The Next Economy spells out what’s needed for a just transition in this guest post from founder Amanda Cahill and co-authors Gareth Edwards and John Wiseman.

Catch Up

Capital

Renewables developer Frontier Energy (ASX: FHE) nominated to become a 5-year fixed price facility following the assignment of Peak Certified Reserve Capacity (CRC). Frontier nominated the fixed price option due to the requirement for guaranteed revenue to underpin project financing. “This is a major milestone for the company as it will provide certainty on the reserve capacity price for the first five years, at or above $360,700/MW,” Frontier CEO, Adam Kiley said. Revenue from energy sales is in addition to revenue received from capacity credits.

Fortescue’s (ASX: FMG) 75m Green Pioneer sailed into New York to spur uptake of clean marine fuel. “While world leaders gather for Climate Week and the UN General Assembly, we will be on the East River showing that green ammonia is not a theory but a fuel that can help power the world’s ships while reducing carbon emissions,” founder Andrew Forrest said. He urged the US to seize the moment instead of “threatening the world with tariffs and sanctions to block climate action” which he said was “economic bullying dressed up as policy”.


Projects

The approval of the Nowingi Solar Power Station, located near Mildura in Victoria and including the largest eight-hour storage battery of its kind in Australia — for now, marked the 100th renewable energy project given the green light by the Albanese government. “The project is strategically located next to transmission lines and within the easement corridor, minimising impacts to the environment and to existing land use,” Environment Minister Murray Watt said. “Once operational, Nowingi will be the largest duration BESS facility in Australia, capable of dispatching 300MW an hour for eight hours,” Edify Energy CEO John Cole said.

A wind turbine blade snapped in half during a storm earlier in September at the Flyers Creek Wind Farm in the New South Wales Central West. Facility owners, Iberdrola Australia, said the tower's blade initially suffered damage during a storm in June and suffered further damage some weeks ago. No one was injured as a result. (ABC)


Policy

To date, the energy transition has not had a major effect on the everyday lives of most Australians. Under new emissions plans, that’s set to change, the AFR reports. Alison Reeve, climate and energy director at the Grattan Institute, says political support for the new target will hinge on the government being more upfront with people about how the transition will personally affect them. “If you’re renting, it’s hard to access these savings. Battery rebates are great, but we still have one-third of households who rent and who can’t even get rooftop solar. There has to be a real focus to make sure it’s not just well-off homeowners who benefit from that electrification story,” she told the Guardian.

Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott took to a centre-right stage to reject net zero. The commitment to the target “has to be dropped and the sooner the better”, he told an event in Brisbane, sharing the platform with the Coalition’s Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Nationals Senators Bridget McKenzie and Matt Canavan. “Every time we have fought an election on climate and energy …. we have succeeded but every time we’ve simply mirrored Labor’s position, we’ve done badly,” Abbott said. “We have got to be against it.” (AAP) (Sky)


Regulation

Synergy tabled in the WA Parliament a $778.5 million annual loss amid mounting energy transition costs, which included a one-off impairment to the book value of coal-fired generation assets and provision for onerous contracts. A year earlier it posted a $589.7 million profit. CEO Kurt Baker said the financial position “is anticipated to remain variable as Synergy and the state government respond to market volatility and other external pressures”.

WA’s Horizon Power, as the regulated operator of the North West Interconnected System (NWIS), has been working with the Australian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH) on early feasibility work for a transmission project to link large-scale renewables into the NWIS in the Great Sandy Desert corridor, and other priority projects, acting CEO Krystal Skinner Acting said in Horizon’s annual report. “And despite the challenge of cost escalations in energy projects from planning to operation, we have seen a $15.2 million profit in the financial year, largely driven by higher sales, mainly in the NWIS.”


Technology

Green Gravity has secured another old mining shaft to test gravitational energy storage, this time in Wollongong. (ABC)


Climate

Australia’s climate conversation may be stuck in a loop of what’s politically feasible, but things are changing in the real world. Australians love roof-top solar and 60,000 have installed a battery since July 1. According to Origin (ASX: ORG), home batteries are projected to cut 21 million tonnes of CO₂ by 2035, a cut to national emissions of 3.4%. (ABC)


People

Former WA minister Sue Ellery was appointed to the board of Synergy as a non-executive director.

Melbourne Law School appointed Professor Nicole Watson as Director of the Indigenous Law and Justice Hub

BHP is expected to appoint Geraldine Slattery as its first female chief executive to replace current CEO Mike Henry, FT reported.


Research

The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI) released a White Paper on the “catalysing” role for asset managers, banks and insurers as only a fraction of the capital needed is flowing to projects that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. High-integrity carbon markets are tipped as a critical tool to help direct that capital, and are projected to grow from a mere US$1.4 billion now to up to $250 billion by 2050.


Random

Engineers at RMIT have developed a new low-carbon replacement for concrete. The material, called cardboard-confined rammed earth, is composed entirely of cardboard, water and soil – making it reusable and recyclable, and with one quarter of the carbon footprint of concrete. (Structures)

What's On

September 21-28
Climate Week NYC

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest, Vanuatu’s Climate Change Minister Ralph Regenvanu, Indonesia’s Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, Energy & Environment Hashim Djojohadikusumo, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, and Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis Lead Analyst on Global Steel Simon Nicholas are among the speakers at this event in New York.


September 23
AEMO's Annual Results

Australian Energy Market Operator CEO Daniel Westerman and Executive General Manager for Finance and Governance Vanessa Hannan will outline progress against strategic priorities and initiatives, financial results for FY25 and priorities for FY26.


September 24
Updated net zero pathways for Australia

The Net Zero Australia Project team from the University of Melbourne, the University of Queensland and Princeton University will present their latest report on the roles of renewables, energy storage and firming including nuclear, carbon capture and storage and other complementary technologies at this hybrid event.


October 1
ANU Energy Update: Getting to net zero

Grattan Institute Energy and Climate Change Program Director Alison Reeve will chair this hybrid event featuring Climate Change Authority Deputy CEO Eliza Murray, ANU Crawford School of Public Policy Associate Professor Rebecca Colvin and ANU Deputy Director, School of Engineering, Associate Professor Marnie Shaw.


October 2
The COP drop: The latest on Australia's role and opportunity

Climate and diplomacy expert Dean Bialek will join Clean Energy Investor Group CEO Richie Merzian, Pacific Community-SPC Director of Climate Change and Sustainability Coral Pasisi and Climateworks Centre System Lead for Sustainable Communities Kylie Turner at this webinar from The Energy, moderated by The Energy Advisory Board Member Dan Cass.


October 7-8
NEM Development Conference 2025

EnergyAustralia Managing Director Mark Collette and Powerlink CEO Paul Simshauser will headline this Brisbane event hosted by Griffith University and UQ, which will also feature Queensland Farmers Federation CEO Jo Sheppard, NEM Review panel Chair Tim Nelson, Victoria Energy Policy Centre Director Bruce Mountain, University of Sydney Professor of Law Penny Crossley, Iberdrola GM Regulation & Energy Policy Joel Gilmore and Global Roam CEO Paul McArdle.


October 15
The Energy Q&A with the NEM Review panel

NEM Review panel Tim Nelson, Paula Conboy, Ava Hancock and Phil Hirschhorn will speak at this webinar moderated by The Energy Advisory Board Member Anna Hancock.


October 16-17
IGCC Summit 2025: Decoding the transition

Generation Investment Management Founding Partner and former US Vice President Al Gore will headline this Sydney event from the Investor Group on Climate Change. Other speakers include NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe, Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel, ARENA Associate Director Tanya Hodgeson and Net Zero Economy Agency CEO David Shankey.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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