Fixing energy storage cost forecasts


Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy. In today's edition:

  • Researchers say pumped hydro numbers need a rethink
  • The mysterious energy company with well-credentialed backers
  • Woodside heaps praise on Trump’s permitting reforms

Australia’s energy storage forecasts are broken

ANU energy researchers Harry Armstrong-Thawley and Timothy Weber have run the numbers on pumped hydro and say CSIRO’s GenCost and the AEMO ISP are way off.

Expert view

"In an increasingly renewable energy system, correctly costing competing firming technology — pumped hydro, batteries, and gas — is essential to planning a secure and affordable energy supply.

But when it comes to pumped hydro, Australia’s cost models have it all wrong.

Correcting basic assumptions about pumped hydro could completely change the outlook for Australia’s evolving energy landscape. Modelling too-small systems, overly constrained in location, with out-dated locational discounts pushes long-term plans away from storage and towards gas.

If cost models were updated to reflect modern realities, energy planners may find that long-duration pumped hydro, coupled with high power batteries, provides decarbonisation and better electricity prices than gas.”

Harry Armstrong-Thawley
Research Officer and PhD Candidate, ANU

Transformer maker pins future on big batteries and mystery energy company

Australia’s largest transformer manufacturer is pinning its hopes for future growth on big batteries and a mystery startup that claims to have cracked the code for generating bottomless firm clean energy more cheaply than anything on the market today.

Ed Wilson, managing director of Wilson Transformer Company, based in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, said supplying transformers to the “massive pipeline” of big batteries coming into the local grid accounted for a sharply growing share of the company’s revenues in recent years.

Wilson Transformer has also partnered with an energy technology startup - PolarBlue - that has made advances in materials science, manufacturing and energy that “will change our thinking”.

“The materials that they're creating and processing are more efficient than steel, concrete and timber with zero carbon embodiment. So there's some pretty powerful words, but if we think about that, it's quite mind blowing.”

Woodside Energy defends role of gas, praises Trump permitting reform

Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) chief executive Meg O’Neill and chair Richard Goyder stared down loud whistles from protesters at the company’s AGM, in which 19.45 per cent of shareholders voted against the reappointment of sustainability chair Ann Pickard.

Pickard had been targeted by proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis over a failure to respond to significant shareholder opposition to the company’s climate strategy. The recommendation against Pickard came in the wake of a company decision to stop shareholders voting on Woodside’s environmental plans after 58 per cent of investors gave the climate report the thumbs down last year.

O’Neill responded to questions on the US policy environment by praising the Trump administration for its permitting reforms.

“It’s very clear that the Trump administration understands the role that affordable energy plays in national prosperity,” O’Neill said, adding that this was “an important lesson for us to take here in Australia”.

“It’s very encouraging to see the work that they're doing to tackle permitting reform. Whilst we've been able to secure all the permits we need for Louisiana LNG and all of the other assets we have in the US, the urgency to try to build our energy infrastructure is really laudable,” O’Neill said.

Catch up

Regulation

Energy networks will now be able to make investments to protect the grid against potential bushfire and flood risks, including resilience expenditure factors in their revised regulatory proposals from October. The change comes after the AEMC finalised a rule change request from Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio with the aim of network resilience being explicitly recognised in the national electricity rules in the wake of increasing climate change induced extreme weather events.

The AEMC is seeking feedback on its second phase of rule changes to improve the NEM access standards. One of the proposed rule changes stems from an AEMO review finding the projected growth of large, inverter based loads such as data centres and hydrogen could pose risks to power system security. Feedback is due by 19 June.

The Essential Services Commission said its ban on telemarketing in the Victorian Energy Upgrades program was working as it fined one business $69,231 for cold calling in breach of the one-year old rule. The regulator said complaints had dropped sharply, with telemarketing down 24 per cent and door knocking down 75 per cent.


Capital

Wind energy proponents should plan for 15-25% curtailment going forward, said consultant Jonathon Dyson, after reviewing how much utility-scale solar has curtailed wind over the last five years.

New Zealand power companies Genesis Energy and Contact Energy struck a gas supply deal with Methanex in the wake of the "lowest first-quarter national hydro inflows on record". (New Zealand Herald)


People

Incoming Pope Robert Francis Prevost - Pope Leo XIV - was expected to continue Pope Francis' legacy as a steward of climate change. He is on record saying the world must move from "words to action" on the deteriorating environmental crisis facing the world, and that humanity’s “dominion over nature” shouldn’t be “tyrannical” but “a relationship of reciprocity.” (Bloomberg)


Projects

AGL said it had acquired two pumped hydro projects in the Upper Hunter, without disclosing financial details. The projects are being developed by former PM Malcolm Turnbull’s Upper Hunter Hydro. AGL said it was encouraged by the NSW Government’s decision to maintain 8+ hours as the definition for long-duration storage as well as its increased targets. ”Government support will be required to help bring these critical projects to market,” AGL Chief Operating Officer, Markus Brokhof said in a statement.

Pacific Energy secured a deal with Iluka Resources to deliver a 30MW hybrid power generation facility at the new Balranald mineral sands mine in southwestern New South Wales. The system will comprise a 10.6MW solar farm, 14.4MW of diesel power, and a 5.4MW/3.2MWh grid-forming battery energy system with hydrocarbons-off functionality.


Policy

Manufacturers Orica and BlueScope escalated their fears of a possible gas shortfall on Australia’s east coast and urged Labor to reconsider its policies to ensure enough supplies were available for domestic users. (The Australian)

Residents of West Australian mining town Collie are open-minded about nuclear energy after the Coalition's election loss. (ABC)

Besides Ukraine, talks between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin this week were expected to hone in on energy. "Beijing and Moscow have parlayed for years on new pipelines. Beijing recently rebuffed a proposal for expanded supplies via Kazakhstan. But now prices are low, Gazprom is semi-bankrupt, and the EU has committed to ending Russian purchases by 2027, Xi could get a good deal, which he can trade in turn with the US, wanting to sell LNG, and the EU, wanting to make EVs." (Geopolitical Dispatch)


Climate

Tracking the cost of extreme weather and climate events in the US was expected to become next to impossible after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced it would retire its weather and climate disaster database. (CNN)


Technology

Europe’s nuclear advocates pushed their favourite energy source as a deterrent against the type of blackout that seized Spain and Portugal last week. Specialists and other officials, including those in Spain, aren’t convinced. (Politico)


Research

Global solar PV growth is expected to slow to 10% in 2025, reaching 655 GW new installations, according to SolarPower Europe's latest Global Market Outlook.


Random

Five takeaways from the BloombergNEF Summit in New York.

What's on

May 15
How Traditional Owners are powering the clean energy transition

Melbourne Climate Futures Senior Research Fellow Dr Lily O'Neill will speak at this Melbourne event.


May 15
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics webinar

The Melbourne Energy Institute will host Kerry Galloway, Manager - Market Insights from AEMO for this webinar.


May 16
AEMO consultation - cyber security

Submissions on the draft report on whether AEMO’s cyber security roles and responsibilities should be a declared NEM project are due.


May 21-22
Australian Renewable Energy Zones conference

Australian Energy Infrastructure Commissioner Tony Mahar will speak along with EnergyCo CEO Hannah McCaughey and NSW Energy and Water Ombudsman Janine Young at this Sydney event.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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