Doing the numbers


Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy. In today's edition:

  • Can data centres delivery flexibility to the grid?
  • Potential leaders jostle as parties continue postmortems
  • Weighing the cost of resilience

Australia heading for data centre flexibility showdown

As the residents of Fairfax, Virginia sat down to dinner on a warm summer evening last July, they were unaware of how close their district came to experiencing a blackout.

At around 7pm, a piece of equipment on a transmission line failed, causing system faults that drove six voltage fluctuations, each for a period of milliseconds.

What happened next has become a case study used by energy market operators, including AEMO, on the risks posed to the electricity grid by data centres.

Doing the numbers

Acting Liberal Leader Sussan Ley and former energy minister Angus Taylor are vying to head up the party after its election humiliation.

“We did let the women of Australia down. That’s part of the conversations I have been having and we will continue to have. But it’s about much more than that, it is about the policy offering. It is about what modern Australia expects of us as Liberals.
We have to understand why people didn’t support us, that they weren’t inspired by our policy offerings and that they didn’t believe we were the best choice to lead the country forward.” — Sussan Ley on Sunrise

“We need policies that speak to Australians across all walks of life. We need real ideas that match the scale of the challenges we face. From housing and energy to the cost-of-living and national defence … And it’s about the Australians who want to believe in us again,” Taylor said in his statement on party leadership. But he stayed shtum when asked by The Energy whether nuclear energy would be part of his pitch.

Meanwhile, net-zero sceptic Matt Canavan is challenging David Littleproud for leadership of the Nationals. "I am proud of my legacy as leader over the past three years, championing the opposition to the Voice, nuclear energy, supermarket divestiture, and returning all of our House of Representatives members in this election,” Littleproud said.

The remaining Greens also need a new leader.

“Our vote held up, but we lost seats on a rise in Labor’s vote that was a result of Australians rejecting Peter Dutton’s Trumpian agenda rather than any kind of endorsement for Labor.
“Our party room will meet on Thursday to decide our next leader and leadership team. There are a number of incredible people who would make great leaders of our party, and I have absolute confidence that whoever is chosen will lead us strongly and well.” — Greens Senator Nick McKim said in emailed comments

The House of Representatives contest was a very comfortable win for Labor, and this has also been reflected in the Senate where the Coalition has no prospects for a third seat in any state, election analyst Ben Raue explains. With the count continuing, it still looks likely Labor will need Coalition or Greens support to pass legislation. (The Tally Room)

Despite a remarkable win, caution will remain the watchword of the Albanese prime ministership, according to seasoned pundit Karen Middleton. (Inside Story)

But carbon tax advocate Professor Ross Garnaut believes Labor's historic victory could change global energy trade. (ABC)

Preparing for climate-driven events

An electricity rule requirement to invest in distribution network resilience to safeguard against climate-driven outages hasn't won support in all quarters.

Why the rule change?

  • The lack of a formal framework for such resilience meant Distribution Network Service Providers (DNSPs) could dodge work by assuming someone else would do it
  • Existing regulatory arrangements missed the mark on acceptable consumer outcomes related to extended power outages from severe weather events
  • Climate change is expected to increase the likelihood, frequency and severity of these events - putting already vulnerable people in danger.

Sparked by a request from Victoria’s Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio, the final rule is part of a larger program of work designed to reduce the impacts of climate change on the energy grid. It also reflected stakeholder feedback to limit the scope of the resilience expenditure factors to power outages caused by severe weather events, and not include outages caused by other events such as cyber attacks or terrorism. DNSPs have existing obligations that cover cyber-security and safety hazards to their networks - in the NER and outside the NER.

While some pushed for limiting it to a more reactive readiness and response to severe weather events, upfront spending for adaptation will be required. Investments in strengthening poles and wires in high-risk communities, relocating infrastructure in flood prone areas, or increasing the number of mobile generators and substations are expected by the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC).

Expert view

"The AEMC's final rule change aims to enhance the resilience of the electricity grid against extreme weather events, supporting the Victorian government's intent to ensure networks are better prepared. While the intent is supported, there are concerns that DNSPs should already be investing in resilience as part of their responsibility to maintain grid stability, funded by the Australian public.

The rule change falls short in addressing the accountability of DNSPs' performance and delivery. There is a risk that it may lead to "goldplating" proposals that benefit profit margins rather than energy consumers. This highlights the need for tighter ringfencing and an independent review of DNSPs to ensure investments are genuinely in the public interest.

One positive outcome of the rule change is the improvement in data transparency. However, incorporating this into the Distribution Annual Planning Reports does not sufficiently address enforcement and the specifics of what data will be disclosed and how it will be used to hold DNSPs accountable.

Stephanie Bashir
CEO, Nexa Advisory

Catch up

Capital

New Zealand’s competition watchdog approved the NZ$1.9 billion acquisition by one of the country’s “big four” gentailers Contact Energy (NZE: CEN) of fifth-largest Manawa Energy (NZE: MNW). Smaller retailers expect to be squeezed further with the combination to control 24% of electricity generation, particularly on shaped hedges that offer price protection.

‘‘By bringing in and diversifying their generation portfolio with Manawa, they have a greater ability or share of that market … It’s really about the consolidation of what is already a very concentrated market, where we have this refusal to supply these shaped hedges.’’ — Electric Kiwi chief executive Huia Burt told ODT

Contact Chair Rob McDonald said the Commerce Commission decision was a significant milestone. “The combination of Contact and Manawa is an important step for the New Zealand energy transition, providing greater ability to invest in future generation capacity, enhancing market security and ultimately contributing to reducing wholesale prices long-term,” he said. Contact is targeting implementation of the deal in July 2025.

AEMO Services opened a competitive tender for NSW Long Duration Storage Long-Term Energy Service Agreements (LDS LTESAs). The financial product features a series of 1-year options to enter a cash settled swap for a contract term of up to 40 years. A fleet of shorter-duration (two to four-hour) batteries may be handy for nearer-term reliability - and meeting 2030 targets - but storage of at least eight hours duration will be needed as coal-fired power stations exit the grid. The hydro-friendly Tender Round 6 is seeking an indicative tender size of at least 1GW (at least 8 GWh) of LDS across NSW that must be operational by 2034.


Projects

Meanwhile, WA will build Australia's biggest vanadium flow battery in Kalgoorlie-Boulder on the edge of the state's power grid.

“The big question: can the promise of 2029 be delivered on? Yes!” — Australian Vanadium CEO Graham Arvidson

Policy

Superpower Institute Chair Rod Sims urged the Albanese government to campaign on a carbon price at the 2028 election.

Writing in The Australian, Sims also called for more action on gas.

"Support for renewables is often characterised as reliance on solar and wind only. This is not so. We have pumped hydro and ever improving batteries, and gas is ideal for ensuring reliability with its low capital cost and high operating cost. Gas has played a key role in fossil fuel electricity generation; so it will in the net zero world, albeit with less volume required.
"The Coalition went to the election with a policy on gas reservation. The details were not available, but the key point is that Australia has enough gas, we just need to determine how to make it work for Australia. Australia has by far the highest domestic gas prices of any gas exporting country; this must change, and the government has the ability to make this happen."Rod Sims, Chair, The Superpower Institute

Solar and battery installer 1KOMMA5° is already applying a discount in the expectation incentive costs can be claimed back once the “really attractive” battery subsidy program goes live from July 1 as promised. Smart Energy Council chief John Grimes expects strong demand from the millions of households with rooftop solar already installed. (AAP)

Carbon Market Institute Chair Dr Kerry Schott, speaking at a two-day forum, captured the “irritation” of the sector on lengthy delays that are restricting investment. Delegates want a solid 2035 emission reduction target announced sooner rather than later and long-delayed methods finalised. Another theme was the need for a less binary policy discussion.

“It’s not industrial decarbonisation OR offset credits, the latter must complement not substitute the former.
It’s not emission reduction OR carbon removal, it must be both as we head to more of the latter as we approach net zero.
It’s not academic analysis OR industry experience, we must integrate both with greater transparency from industry as well as a recognition the former will lag the latter.” — CMI CEO John Connor

A group of 15 Democratic states sued the Trump administration over what they said was his illegal declaration of an energy emergency. They said federal agencies were rushing permits for fossil fuel projects under false pretences. (New York Times)


Regulation

Still pending is a request to AEMC seeking transparency for small customers in metering changes so they don’t get post-installation surprises about tariff changes. Although some changes are due to take effect from July 1, they lack an express consumer protection provision against contracting out. Nor should customers be shifted to time-of-use contracts without their prior knowledge or consent, according to the request for changes to the National Energy Retail Rules.

Elsewhere, Texas introduced a striking new piece of legislation, Senate Bill 715, which has shaken investor confidence across the energy sector, not just within renewables. The bill demands renewable power plants retroactively guarantee power availability by pairing their intermittent wind and solar farms with dispatchable backup power, typically gas or large-scale battery storage. While at first glance, this might seem like a targeted regulatory adjustment to ensure reliability, it is, in reality, an aggressive intervention into existing contractual arrangements. (CleanTechnica)


Technology

In Switzerland, Sun-Ways received approval to install 48 380-watt solar panels along part of the national rail. During the planned three-year pilot phase, Sun-Ways hopes to generate close to 16,000kWh annually from the linear array, injecting the electric current into the local network. (Energy Tech)

Canada could soon have the G7’s first small modular nuclear reactors. (CTV News)


People

FTI Consulting appointed Scott Cockerham as a Senior Managing Director in its Corporate Finance & Restructuring segment, where he will lead the Power, Renewables & Energy Transition practice based in Houston. Senior Managing Director Chris LeWand remains global Power, Renewables & Energy Transition practice leader.


Research

Part of an upcoming special issue, Smart Planning of Large-Scale Wind Farms for Power Systems with High Share of Wind Power, a group of researchers writing in the International Journal of Energy Research present an Integrated and Fire Spiking Neuron Model for improved wind speed forecasting.


Random

Realising the dreams of seventeenth century alchemists, a pulse of energy turned lead into gold at the Large Hadron Collider - but only for a fraction of a second. (Nature)

What's on

May 15
How Traditional Owners are powering the clean energy transition

Melbourne Climate Futures Senior Research Fellow Dr Lily O'Neill will speak at this Melbourne event.


May 15
AEMO Quarterly Energy Dynamics webinar

The Melbourne Energy Institute will host Kerry Galloway, AEMO Manager - Market Insights, for this webinar.


May 16
AEMO consultation - cyber security

Submissions are due on whether AEMO’s cyber security roles and responsibilities should be a declared NEM project.


May 26
Labor's landslide: What's next for energy and climate policy in Australia?

Simon Corbell, advisory board Chair, The Energy will moderate this webinar featuring Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, DER strategy specialist Gabrielle Kuiper, Windlab CEO John Martin, and DPG Advisory Solutions Director Climate and ESG Ben Oquist.


May 28-29
H2 2 ZERO Summit 2025

New Zealand’s Energy Minister Simon Watts, Japan’s Ambassador to NZ Makoto Osawa, and Rocket Lab Founder Sir Peter Beck are among diplomats, business leaders and researchers speaking at this event in Wellington.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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