Dealing with a doubling of demand


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • Panic buying sets in
  • The case for home battery subsidies
  • Portable 'AI factories'

Fuel supply fears continue to spook markets

Oil and gas markets are suffering from a "bullwhip effect", with traders continuing to speculate that continued panic buying will propel key benchmark prices higher, making it harder for supplies to keep up with demand, according to supply chain experts.

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen told 7.30 Australia's total reserve now comprised 2.7 billion litres of diesel and 1.5 billion litres of petrol which could help meet what he termed had been a "100% increase in demand in just a few days."

"Any commodity, be it petrol, diesel or anything else is going to run short in some areas if you get that big spike in usage," he explained.

Australia has been leaning on its international network of refinery suppliers to source fuel from the current array of countries with which it has an import agreement. Minister Bowen insisted that "all cargoes have been arriving as intended in Sydney," but would not detail which countries they came from.

Measuring the success of Cheaper Home Batteries

The government’s $7.2 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program will likely boost household battery storage by 4.1GWh, or 31% more than if the subsidy did not exist, according to new analysis from Rennie Advisory.

The consulting firm models solar and battery uptake at postcode level, driven by dwelling structure, income, demographics, solar penetration rates and policy settings. It expects 40-45% of national household battery stock in 2030 to be directly attributable to the federal government policy, assuming it continues as is.

Expert view

“The government's headline target is 40GWh of additional storage by 2030. Our modelling suggests a more realistic figure is closer to 17GWh, but the program is responsible for nearly half of it. That should hopefully be seen more as success than sticker shock.

Reports suggest the program is under serious review as part of broader budget savings. My view would be that a policy delivering close to half of all projected household battery capacity by 2030 is pulling extraordinary weight. The conversation should be less about whether the program is too expensive, and more about recalibrating the 40GWh target to reflect what the market can realistically absorb, and then setting the right level of support to deliver it.”

Eamon McGinn
Executive Director, Rennie Advisory

Catch Up

Capital

Weeks after the financial close and breaking ground on NSW’s $900 million Blind Creek Solar Farm and Battery, renewable energy retailer Flow Power has signed a foundational offtake agreement with developer Octopus Australia. The agreement will see the companies collaborating to realise the benefits of what COO and CFO Byron Serjeantson called “the next generation of renewable energy projects, combining smart technology, firmer supply for customers, and regenerative agriculture” as the site’s design allows sheep to continue grazing across the site while its 300MW of solar and 243MW/486MWh battery are operational.

Headline figures about the soaring cost of Brent crude are obscuring an even more dramatic increase in the price of diesel fuel, Freedom Fuels CEO Mark McKenzie has said in explaining why diminishing stocks of diesel are posing an even bigger problem for industry nationwide. Diesel wholesale prices on the Singapore Trading Hub were US$92 per barrel before the Iran invasion but have soared to US$194 since – a 110% increase that has imposed a range of flow-on effects because, McKenzie explained, “change in the diesel price actually has an immediate effect on our prices the next day.”

Western Australia’s Wind Energy Manufacturing Co-Investment Program WA is now open for applications, with two streams providing funding for either ‘market entry’ projects – those of between $20,000 and $60,000 and designed to help companies break into the wind energy supply chain – or ‘market growth’ projects of between $500,000 and $1 million, with funding designed to help manufacturers in that supply chain scale up. The $8 million program is administered by the Advanced Manufacturing Growth Centre, and will be open until 20 May 2027.


Policy

Despite internal ructions over energy policy, Australia will maintain its commitment to supplying Japan with gas, resources minister Madeleine King told an industry forum in Tokyo as she sought to soothe concerns Australia might follow the lead of countries like China in diverting its energy supply during the current Iran crisis. “Australia will not do anything that harms investment or alters existing contracts, or which jeopardises the energy security of other nations in the region,” she said while leveraging this track record of reliability to exhort Japanese investors to work with Australia to develop critical minerals and rare earth resources.

Fuel rationing is a near inevitability in Australia if the Iran conflict drags on, an energy policy expert has warned as politicians rue decisions not taken and energy industry figures increasingly draw parallels to past disruptions that spawned energy crises here and abroad. “Our short-term buffer will obviously not survive and we’re going to have to immediately switch to rationing,” Deakin Law School professor Samantha Hepburn told the ABC, warning that diesel will be the first fuel to be rationed as rising interest rates create “a major concern moving forward.”

Exposure of the weaknesses in Australia’s food supply – including interdependencies such as the escalating fuel shortages that threaten to interrupt agriculture across Australia – mean that food security should be treated as a “whole of nation resilience challenge,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analysts have advised as they warn of the implications of “compounding systemic shocks” such as “simmering geopolitical tensions that disrupt maritime routes. A focus on wargaming disruptions, co-investment between government and industry, and policy mechanisms such as the appointment of a national security advisor “could help anchor a long-term strategy”.

The WA government’s Fuel Industry Operations Group – created to manage concerns about fuel security during the Iran conflict – has authorised road trains to carry an additional 10 tonnes of petrol, diesel and/or fertiliser per load to “priority regions”, it announced alongside plans to work with industry to identify priority travel routes, with new road safety measures to be implemented as well.

Advocacy group Solar Citizens welcomed last week’s announcement of a new National Technical Regulator for consumer energy resources, to be housed within the Clean Energy Regulator (CER). CEO Heidi Lee Douglas urged the new NTR to prioritise virtual power plant (VPP) consumer protections, revenue sharing of at least 50%, no lock-in contracts and the ability to easily take back control of a battery or other asset. “We’re going to have somebody looking after all of our rooftop solar and battery assets within the energy system,” she said, “finally.”


Projects

WinDC and Armada have forged a strategic partnership to deploy modular, portable ‘AI factories’ that will be co-located at Australian renewable energy projects and make use of the excess capacity they generate. The behind-the-meter architecture saves the sites from having to deal with grid congestion, with the new partnership set to see 11MW of modular data centres deployed at wind, solar, and battery sites across NSW, WA and elsewhere.

A 78,000m2 ‘AI factory’, to be built by Datagrid in Makarewa, near Invercargill at the southern tip of New Zealand’s South Island, has gained full resource consent from area councils. The site will become the region’s second largest user of power, with expectations that it will consume 280MW when it goes live. It took five years for Datagrid to navigate environmental and cultural approvals for the project, which includes an undersea cable that is seen as a boon for local businesses.

The NSW government is weighing the merits of a proposed heritage listing for the White Cliffs Solar Power Station, said to be one of the first commercially operated solar thermal power stations in the world. Built in 1980, the site includes 14 large dishes that superheated steam to power a single phased 37kVA alternator that powered the opal fields region town. The Heritage Council is soliciting submissions on the nomination until May 8.


Technology

In a sign of the disruption to come from hyperscale AI data centres, GPU technology firm OXMIQ Labs has announced it will provide advisory services for AM Intelligence Labs (AMIL), which is working to implement 2GW of compute capability by 2030 – including an initial 1GW AI Compute Hub in Uttar Pradesh, India due to come online by next year. Also backing the project is AMIL parent company AM Group, whose portfolio companies include major green energy producer Greenko – whose 50GW of solar, wind and hydro power and 100GWh of battery energy storage will support the data centres with 100% clean energy.


Research

Australia has the world’s twelfth highest production capacity of onshore wind developments, Strategy Partner Advisory director Nicholas Aberle has found in a new global analysis of wind turbine density that found Victoria ranked tenth globally in terms of the number of turbines per 1,000 km2 – well ahead of other NEM states but just 10% of the turbine density of countries like the Netherlands and Germany. His analysis was positioned to shed light on the reality of Australian wind farms given widespread opposition to them – with Australia “very much middle-of-the-pack when it comes to how many wind turbines we have for the land we have available.”


Climate

Infrastructure Australia’s newly released Infrastructure Priority List has emphasised the importance of climate resilience and the net-zero transition, with five key infrastructure priorities including clean energy infrastructure such as large-scale renewable energy generation, renewable energy zones and infrastructure decarbonisation. The Green Building Council Australia welcomed the list’s energy focus, with CEO Davina Rooney noting the importance of “thoughtful planning across energy, transport and water infrastructure.”


People

Sustainable finance peak body the Australian Sustainable Finance Institute (ASFI) has welcomed William McDonnell as chair of the ASFI board. McDonnell, who serves as chief financial officer at IAG, previously worked in a number of sustainability roles at the Bank of England, Royal & Sun Alliance, University of Cambridge and more. He succeeds inaugural chair Kristian Fok, CEO of Cbus Super.

Australian Ethical Investment has appointed Karen Orvad as an independent non-executive director. The KPMG alumna has held senior audit and risk roles in ASX-listed companies and currently serves on NSW Treasury and Energy Co audit and risk committees. (FS Sustainability)

What's On

March 17
Developing a community stake in renewable energy

The Community Power Agency (CPA) will host a webinar marking its launch of a new best-practice guide for implementing community energy partnerships. CPA’s Dr Anna Berka and Claudia Hodge will be joined by Wambal Bila’s Gavin Brown, Emma Stilts of Manilla Community Renewable Energy Inc, and Stride Renewables’ Cubby Fox.


March 17-19
Energy Networks Australia Conference

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, Iberdrola Australia CEO Paul Simshauser and Airtrunk Founder Robin Khuda will keynote this event in Adelaide also featuring the leaders of Australia's energy network companies.


March 18-19
Energy Storage Australia

Speakers at this Sydney event include NEM review chair A/Prof Tim Nelson; Modo Energy’s Wendel Hortop; SolaX Power’s Wenyan Sharp; Indigenous Energy Australia’s Michael Frango, Hydro Tasmania’s Erin van Maanen, and the Energy Security Corporation’s Paul Peters.


March 19
Powering the future: Sustainability of mining energy transition materials

The Melbourne Energy Institute will welcome Monash University’s Dr Nikolas Kuschnig for a session exploring the sustainability of mining energy transition minerals. The one-hour session, starting at 2pm online and in person at the Melbourne Connect building in Carlton, will explore the lack of information about artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) and the impact of uncertainty on the supply of metals critical for the energy transition.


March 24
Powering WA's Regions: Remote and Offshore Renewables

The Clean Energy Council will hold a panel session at Perth’s Golden Ballroom Centre, with speakers including Sabine Powell of DNV Australia, Vi Garrood of Horizon Power, Thomas Friberg of Zenith Energy, Emma van der Velde of GHD, and Nicole Blackburn of Schneider Electric (Australia).


March 24
Energy Dialogue Victoria

A panel of senior industry executives will discuss the future of energy transition, regulation and innovation at a Trans-Tasman Business Circle event. Speakers include Clean Energy Regulator chair David Parker AM, CBA’s Vivek Dhar, and Momentum Energy’s Lisa Chiba.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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