Closure timetables the elephant in the room


Hey Reader, in today's edition:

  • A stable transition starts with workers
  • More visibility on coal closures
  • Battery boom trumps AEMO forecasts

Reliability at home and at scale

Energy workers - and their families - need certainty and the energy transition needs skilled workers.

That’s the clarion call from a union of more than 60,000 electricians, apprentices and electrical workers as the National Electricity Market (NEM) faces reliability issues and as consensus on national licensing and fast-tracking project approvals takes shape at the Economic Reform Roundtable.

Delivering identified generation, storage, transmission and consumer energy resources (CER) “on time and in full at even greater pace” will be essential.

Expert view

“Between 2021-2025, there has been no significant co-ordinated output for CER. We had already identified coordinated CER as a priority back in 2017 where network information and digital services needed to provide a platform to stimulate customised energy options in dynamic markets by 2027 according to the Electricity Network Transformation Roadmap. How are we going to bridge the gap between the next 10 years’ projections of the coordinated CER shown under the ESOO report?

Despite all the work that we’ve done on the Demand Response Program, Open Energy Networks, and several ARENA funded initiatives to create a marketplace, we’re still in need of a mature flexibility market to take advantage of the high penetration of CER. The recent update of 'National CER Roadmap' could be the answer. However, a siloed approach is not going to deliver a cost-efficient, non-proprietary, fair, and holistic flexibility services market to trade and dispatch CER.”

Yogendra Vashishtha
Head of Future Networks, EA Technology Australia

Expert view

“AEMO is keeping its finger on the pulse on expert views on the sources of new electricity demand. It's a good thing they are, because it is a moving feast.

Electrolyser load was a big deal in the 2024 ESOO. In 2025 it shows up in the out years but with the green hydrogen bubble rapidly deflating it's much less of a factor in the near term. On the other hand data centres are on the march: big new loads are anticipated in the 2025 ESOO, something I know is keeping plenty of energy ministers up at night. And this year the ESOO is more bullish on industrial electrification, perhaps anticipating renewed effort in this space through the Federal Government's upcoming sector decarbonisation plans.

On the plus side AEMO is continuing to increase the granularity and sophistication of its demand forecasts; the homework being done for the Demand Side Factors statement that will be included in the 2026 ISP is showing here. But the ESOO is still oriented around elevating supply side investments as the go-to solution; the primary levers for managing reliability are still generation, networks and storage. I get it, properly grappling with demand side options in this frame is complex. But it underlines the need for a dedicated, Demand Side Statement of Opportunities which properly gets under the hood of the new measures we can take on in terms of energy flexibility and efficiency to manage overall system costs and close reliability gaps.”

Luke Menzel
CEO, Energy Efficiency Council

Coal closures the elephant in the room

One of the NEM review draft report recommendations garnering questions at yesterday’s official webinar on proposed derivative markets was the proposal to extend the MT PASA generation availability projections from three to five years.

The MT PASA, or Medium-Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy, is one of the signals in AEMO’s toolkit to tell the market when a generator might not be available, either temporarily or permanently.

The NEM review panel was asked whether existing mechanisms on MT PASA information provision, particularly plant retirement scheduling, are sufficient to prevent new markets potentially being moved through, “let's just say, less than entirely genuine information provided to the market operator”.

NEM review panel chair Tim Nelson said the panel’s starting point was that companies were complying with the Corporations Act. “But we think it's important that the supply side availability extends out to a time frame that people may be thinking about contracting,” Nelson said.

“We have noticed people making the observation that people generally copy and paste information into the second, third, fourth, fifth year. We do think it's important that people take those obligations very seriously. And in a world where there is an increasingly difficult window within which to do maintenance because of the nature of seasonal demand and supply, we do think it's important people take that very seriously, because the market is trading on information that needs to be provided in an accurate, timely way.”

Expert view

“We'd be really keen to get people's views on MT PASA more broadly, and not just MT PASA, all requirements that exist…that go to the heart of providing the right information on supply and demand that allow the most efficient decisions to be made in both the SPI and the derivatives market.

Through the entire report, there's a couple of things that we hope that everyone would note. The first is that we're trying to utilise existing systems and processes as much as possible, rather than creating new things.

But the second thing: this is all about visibility. Markets work where there's transparency, liquidity and accessibility. What do they require? Information. And we need to make sure that the market has as much information as it needs to make that decision. So if there are other parts to that MT PASA, or anything else where you see that there's an information requirement deficiency, we'd be really keen to learn what that looks like.”

Tim Nelson
Chair, NEM wholesale market settings review panel

Getting smarter, faster

A Green Energy Markets report out today shows the introduction of the Cheaper Home Batteries Program is leading to a level of installations that far exceeds estimates being used by AEMO on the contribution of home solar and batteries to electricity generation.

Further, the projected cuts to climate pollution are significant. The renewed surge in electrification from plugging in a battery means households alone can drive a further 3.4% cut in greenhouse gas emissions across Australia to 2035 (including a 10% cut in electricity emissions).

Commissioned by the Smart Energy Council and the Australian Conservation Foundation, the report found:

  • By 2030, the increased level of solar and batteries will lift renewable energy’s share of power supply by 4.5% above that estimated in AEMO’s current projections
  • By 2035, solar and batteries will lift renewable energy’s share of power supply by 9% above AEMO’s current projections.
“Over 1,000 household batteries, adding 20WMh in battery capacity, are being installed every weekday. That is like adding a Hornsdale big battery to the grid every 2 weeks … Millions of people are storing solar power in a battery, meaning they’re performing the same role as coal-fired generators, at a fraction of the economic and environmental cost. The result is that forecastable renewable energy is not only mainstream, it’s baseload.”
John Grimes
Smart Energy Council CEO

Catch Up

Capital

Australian solar wholesaler and distributor OSW secured $8.5 million in strategic funding from Shanghai-based SparkEdge Capital, a top-tier venture capital firm focused on the technology and energy sector. Earlier this year, OSW launched the GreenSketch solar design platform and founder Anson Zhang said his vision was to take their AI-driven distributed energy approach and become “the Amazon of clean energy”.

“Tools like GreenSketch are setting a new standard for clean energy delivery - and we believe OSW is positioned to lead the next wave of global solar adoption.”
Bin Wang
Partner at SparkEdge Capital

West Australian virtual power plant company Plico Energy was put up for sale as it looks to expand into the national energy market on the back of the subsidy-driven home battery boom. (AFR)

Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) reported a 57% drop in FY25 profit in its first full year of owning Queensland operations at Daunia and Blackwater. Underlying earnings were $1.4 billion ($1 billion in H1 and $0.4 billion in H2) reflecting weaker coal prices, with the Queensland business contributing earnings of $0.9 billion. “Thermal coal prices have been recovering since June, and metallurgical coal markets have stabilised,” Whitehaven CEO Paul Flynn told investors, pointing to a “bright future” as Chinese demand rises.

Australian lithium ion battery manufacturer Energy Renaissance was placed into administration after a major investor withdrew from a planned funding round. (AuManufacturing)

Property giant Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) posted a 13% rise in operating earnings for FY25 to $2.3 billion as data centres boom. The group has more than a dozen data centre projects in its pipeline from Los Angeles to major cities in Europe, as well as Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney and Melbourne. (AFR)


Projects

An Australian-first community pilot in NSW’s Illawarra region has upgraded 60 homes to cheaper and cleaner electric appliances. Participants in the Electrify 2515 Community Pilot are eligible for subsidies to install appliances such as heat-pump water heaters and induction cooktops, with project partner Brighte rolling out the upgrades with accredited installers. By the end of the pilot, it is hoped 500 homes will be all-electric.

“The way this community is mobilising to reduce household emissions brings a whole new meaning to ‘people power’. The pilot shows individuals and families are willing to make changes to their homes to use renewable, locally made energy. This community effort will help pave the way for energy resilient communities across the country.”
Saul Griffith
Rewiring Australia Co- Founder and Chief Scientist

Elsewhere, rural NSW residents say a renewable energy proposal has driven a wedge through their tight-knit community. The Hampton Park solar development, located 11km outside Dubbo and part of Australia's first declared renewable energy zone, has triggered a need for mental health support for affected landholders, the ABC reported.

“For many rural Australians, the energy transition will require major, likely irreversible, changes of scale and nature that could alter their local communities, land, livelihoods, or identities … They are often opposing how the transition is being implemented and rightly asking what trade-offs they are really being required to make and what the benefits for themselves, their families and neighbours will be.”
Sara Bice
Director of ANU’s Institute for Infrastructure in Society

And a disused Hunter Valley coal power station made the case it could burn wood and call it renewable energy. (Sydney Morning Herald)


Policy

The National Reconstruction Fund must think big, from critical minerals to clean energy, Minister for Industry and Innovation Tim Ayres writes. (Capital Brief)

New Zealand’s renewable energy supply hit a record and consumption of gas dropped to its lowest level since 2011 last year, according to a Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) report. The supply of gas fell 20.9%, while gas reserves fell 27% - mostly as operators updated surveys rather than faster depletion. Some 45.5% of the primary energy supply came from renewable sources in 2024, a record high. Just over 85% of all electricity was from renewable sources, down from 88.1% from the year before. The fall was driven by low inflows to hydro lakes in dry conditions through May, June and July, which prompted electricity spot prices to soar. Total energy consumption dropped 2.1%. (RNZ)

Tasmania kicked off a trade policy consultation process involving a survey, industry roundtables, and direct engagement with exporters, peak bodies and community stakeholders, with written submissions due by September 30.


Regulation

Australia is unique in that it allows anyone - individuals, consumer groups or industry or governments - to submit a request to change energy rules. In the latest explainer from The Energy, Nancy Spencer from the Griffith University Centre for Applied Energy Economic & Policy Research breaks down how the rules come to be. (The Energy)


Technology

Finnish company Liquid Sun started a pilot project to produce renewable, sustainable aviation fuel (eSAF) from biogenic carbon dioxide emissions. At the beginning of 2025, the EU’s aviation blending mandate entered into force, requiring the gradual increase of renewable fuel use in aviation up to 2050. From 2030 onwards, the mandate will also cover fully synthetic fuels produced from carbon dioxide. By 2050, the blending mandate will rise to 70%, half of which must be eSAF. The mandate applies to airports with at least 800,000 passengers or 100,000 tons of cargo annually. In Finland, this includes Helsinki Airport and Rovaniemi Airport.

“We believe that rapid piloting and validation is the right approach when the goal is to establish an entirely new industry focused on synthetic fuels.”
Pasi Keinänen
Liquid Sun CEO

Climate

Rapid loss of Antarctic ice may be a climate tipping point, with rapid change underway, according to a study published in Nature. “This is set to worsen with every fraction of a degree of global warming,” lead author Nerilie Abram said. The fresh warnings on climate consequences come with Australia facing a deadline on declaring a 2035 emissions reduction target. (AAP) (Reuters) (ABC)


People

Whitehaven Coal appointed ex-CEO of the Minerals Council, political adviser to then prime minister Scott Morrison and former diplomat Brendan Pearson as a director.

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean joined the Board of Australian Wildlife Conservancy (AWC).

Former Queensland deputy premier and treasurer Jackie Trad joined the Clean Energy Council as CEO, replacing industry stalwart Kane Thornton.


Research

China’s cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage surpassed 100 GW for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 110%. The China New Energy Storage Alliance report also showed batteries dominating, with pumped hydro dropping below 40%. The alliance said newly commissioned new energy storage projects reached 23.03GW in the first half of 2025, and policy adjustments saw project grid-connection timelines sped up.


Random

Union boss Sally McManus has been feeling a little lonely around the economic roundtable this week. (ABC)

What's On

August 26
NEM Review Draft Report - Long Term Incentives

This is the third in a series of online forums with the Panel undertaking the National Electricity Market wholesale market settings review.


August 26-27
Australian Renewable Heat Conference

Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean, ARENA investment manager Peter Haenke, and AGL sustainability expert Brendan Weinert will speak at this event in Sydney.


August 26-28
2025 New Zealand Wind Energy Summit

NZ Minister of Energy Simon Watts, Secretary-General of the World Wind Energy Association Stefan Gsänger, Global Wind Energy Council CEO Ben Backwell, Commerce Commission Chair Dr John Small, and Transpower Executive General Manager - Future Grid John Clarke headline this event in Wellington, NZ.


September 1-3
Farming Forever National Summit

Farmers for Climate Action CEO Natalie Collard, Rewiring Aeteroa CEO Mike Casey, NSW EnergyCo Chair Paul Binsted, ANU Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions Professor Mark Howden and NAB Chief Climate Officer Jacqui Fox will speak at this Farmers for Climate Action event in Canberra.


September 2
Bias in action

ANU Institute for Infrastructure in Society Director Sara Bice, CEO of The Energy Charter Sabiene Heindl, Director of Partnerships and Engagement at Energy Estate Rosie King, and Head of Communications and Stakeholder Engagement at Ark Energy Melissa Pisani will speak at this renewable energy engagement webinar.


September 2-4
14th World Chambers Congress

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, CEFC Chair Steven Skala and Yurringa Energy CEO Arron Wood are among the speakers at this Melbourne event.


September 16
The Price of Power: The Future of Australia's Energy Sector

Bluescope Chief Executive, Climate Change and Sustainability Deborah Caudle, Alinta Energy CEO Jeff Dimery, AGL CEO Damien Nicks and Australian Energy Council CEO Louisa Kinnear will speak at this American Chamber of Commerce event in Melbourne, with R. Blair Thomas, CEO of US energy investment firm EIG speaking via Zoom.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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