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Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy. In today's edition:
- Stunning repudiation of nuclear frolic
- Getting on with an epic to-do list
- Actionable insights from sector experts
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Nuclear ‘dead buried and cremated’
Federal Labor won a clear mandate for cleaner and cheaper renewables that will power new industries, securing enough seats to govern in its own right but not a majority in the Senate.
Voters endorsed Labor’s energy manifesto and support for public service expertise to get it done, backing in:
- 82% renewable energy by 2030, supported by the Capacity Investment Scheme
- $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries program
- $26 billion Future Made in Australia program
- $19 billion Rewiring the Nation program
- $16 billion National Reconstruction Fund
- Investment mandate for ARENA and CEFC
- Net Zero Economy Agency collaboration with workers, communities and industries
- Climate Change Authority advice on sectoral pathways and a 2035 emissions reduction target
- Fully funded Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water
- Production credits for renewable hydrogen and critical minerals
- New Vehicle Efficiency Standard to support the adoption of EVs
- EV Fringe Benefit Tax exemption
Does nuclear die with Dutton?
Australians said no to the Coalition’s cap on renewable generation and a reliance on coal and gas to plug what would have been a decades-long gap to a future nuclear industry.
Queensland Conservation Council Director Dave Copeman said voters in Queensland in particular resoundingly voted against “dangerous delay tactics”, resulting in the loss of at least four LNP MPs including Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
“These results should be a wake-up call for the Queensland government, which is currently putting ideology over the will of the people by considering repealing Queensland’s climate targets,” Copeman said.
Dutton is in the bin but Nationals Leader David Littleproud, a strong advocate for nuclear power, is yet to repudiate the policy, even as many farmers call for energy independence.
Subsidies for batteries to keep the lights and refrigeration on, Local Energy Hubs spearheaded by third-term community independent Helen Haines, and new revenue streams from energy generation to drought-proof agriculture have proved to be popular.
Officially, all Liberal and National policies are up for review in the somewhat bloody election post mortem.
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Expert view
"This result sends a clear and unequivocal message: Australians will back and support policies that recognise the economic opportunities which come from acting on the existential threat of climate change.
It shows that any party which seeks to govern this country must have a serious and credible plan to confront the climate crisis.
In a turbulent world, Australia remains a strong, principled and pragmatic voice. We must now use that voice to back science, seize the green energy opportunity, and strengthen our role in the world with compassion, ambition and purpose.
The government’s commitments - including the Future Made in Australia plan, the Capacity Investment Scheme, the Hydrogen Production Tax Incentive and the Green Iron Fund - provide a strong foundation for a green energy future.
Green iron can be the biggest industry Australia has ever built. Let’s start in the Pilbara this decade - with investment, markets and skills.
This term must drive the build out of renewables and heavy industry decarbonisation while working with regional Australians to create jobs and prosperity.”
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Andrew Forrest
Fortescue, Tattarang and Mindaroo founder
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Expert view
"There's no confusion around what the mandate is, but they now need to do some pretty serious introspection about how they play catch up on execution.
Policy uncertainty has plagued this market and private sector institutional confidence for decades, so having more certainty is one of the good things of this result. But now they need to become more proactive and preemptive as opposed to reactive.
One way is by looking at the topics that are going to be the greatest disruption or stress on the energy system, whether it's increased penetration of behind the meter energy sources, or increasing prevalence of extreme weather events and looking at how we can develop industry-wide standards to manage these.
The way that we are dealing with the duck curve and solar rooftop PV penetration is entirely reactive, even though it was foreseeable 15 years ago. Now vehicle-to-grid is coming, so instead of letting every network form a view in a vacuum as to how it's going to deal with it in its own network myopia, how do we look at things at a system-wide level?”
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Jack Curtis
Co-founder, Neara
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Expert view
"The LNP’s nuclear furphy is dead, buried and cremated. The Albanese government needs to seize the global leadership position offered in the run up to the COP31 global climate talks in 2026, as we vie to hold them here.
Domestically we need to accelerate to 82% renewables by 2030 and 95% by 2035, even as we progressively electrify everything. We need to reassess and rein-in AEMO’s Rewiring the Nation and pumped hydro plans in light of the capex blowouts and delays entailed in this large-scale infrastructure, and instead leverage and optimise the existing grid and upscale our battery rollout.
This starts with reaffirming and implementing the $2.3 billion consumer battery policy announced in April, then doubling down and Renew Australia for All, making the energy shift work for everyone. We need to aim for 100GW of rooftop solar by 2040, and rollout a charging infrastructure nationally at scale this decade.
Critically, we need to see a commitment from the ALP to no more greenfield fossil fuel project approvals if it is to honour its climate pledges. Let’s instead acknowledge and embrace the system transformation ahead, and allocate all our scarce human capital to those projects that transform and prepare our country for the decade ahead.”
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Tim Buckley
Climate Energy Finance Director
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Independents' Day
Existing independents look set to be re-elected, apart from Kylie Tink whose electorate was abolished, and several more - Jessie Price in the ACT’s Bean and Nicolette Boele in NSW’s Bradfield - are close with counting still underway.
Independent Andrew Gee, a former Nationals MP who broke ranks on the party’s opposition to the Voice, has claimed victory in the NSW seat of Calare – home to the Mt Piper Power Station that won’t be going nuclear.
The race is close in Zoe Daniel’s seat of Goldstein and Monique Ryan’s Kooyong in inner-city Melbourne, Kate Chaney’s Curtin in WA, Dai Le’s Fowler in Western Sydney, according to the latest election data with no seats formally declared.
“It appears that there has been a significant increase in the number of contests involving minor parties and independents, but it will be some time before we can say how many seats are now non-classic.” — The Tally Room analyst Ben Raue |
What's next
Clean Energy Council Chief Executive Kane Thornton said there must be effective design and implementation of the promised Cheaper Home Batteries rebate program, much-needed reform to environment and planning laws, and reform to the energy market to ensure clearer incentives for new investment - including for long-duration energy storage.
Advice on the 2035 emissions reduction target will soon land with the re-elected Labor government and must be shared internationally before September.
Carbon Market Institute CEO John Connor urged the government to settle on an ambitious 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce Australia’s emissions by more than 70% based on 2005 levels.
A decision on the North West Shelf extension is also on deadline.
Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said the “decisive election result” provided an opportunity for energy policy certainty and stability, and showed Australians don’t want a ban on new gas projects or policy hostage taking in the Senate.
Or as The Australian crudely put it: “Greens are dead, now hit the gas.”
Expert view
"With a majority government now established for a second term, Labor’s energy policy platform will remain largely business-as-usual from its first term, with the centrepiece being its commitment to 82% renewable generation by 2030 contributing to a 43% reduction in economy-wide carbon emissions. Labor will remain focused on delivering renewables-led transition away from fossil fuels, firmed by large-scale batteries, pumped storage, flexible gas and household batteries supported by newly committed government support.
Looking beyond the existing policies, in 2024 the Labor government initiated a review of the NEM wholesale energy market design by an expert market review panel. The panel is expected to deliver its final recommendations by December 2025, which will help shape government policy, particularly the post-2027 energy landscape as the CIS concludes. The recommendations will focus on expanding firm renewable generation by providing adequate investment signals to the required capacity, as ageing coal plants retire. Potential reforms could include modifying the energy-only market, introducing a new capacity mechanism, enhanced demand-side participation and new markets for essential system services.
There will be renewed pressure for the returning Labor government to establish an economy-wide emissions target for 2035. First however, there may need to be a gentle resetting of expectations around the likelihood of meeting the 2030 targets, on which we are behind given delays to critical transmission upgrades and recently announced delays to coal closure dates in NSW and QLD in particular. The revised 2030 target would need to form the baseline for any new commitments out to 2035.”
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Peter Sherry
Partner and Australia Lead, Energy Markets, Baringa Partners
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Catch up
Policy
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Taiwan released a draft regulation that would require PV installations on most new, expanded, or renovated buildings above a certain size. (PV Magazine)
The US House Committee on Natural Resources unveiled its proposed section for the massive Republican energy, tax, and national security bill. “This proposal is a corporate polluter’s wishlist. The only way it could be friendlier to Big Oil CEOs would be if they wrote it themselves,” said Athan Manuel, director of Sierra Club’s Lands Protection Program. (Sierra Club)
Technology
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Why Spain’s rooftop solar owners weren't spared from the blackout (Bloomberg)
Capital
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“Someone would have to be willing to pay more than what our debt is worth... and the funding cost of the construction contract,” Acciona Australia head Bede Noonon told The Australian, as French firm Veolia lines up for the uncompleted East Rockingham waste-to-energy project. The ACCC is currently assessing whether to allow Acciona to proceed with its planned purchase of the plant, given Acciona already owns and operates the Kwinana waste-to-energy facility.
 Projects
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AGL Energy is seeking approval for an up to 250 megawatt gas-fired power station in Kwinana. (Boiling Cold)
Research
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Five weeks away from the start of frequency performance payments, Global Roam’s Linton Corbet updated a trend analysis of the level of self-forecasting used by wind farms across the NEM. (Watt Clarity)
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What's on
May 6
Australian Wind Industry Forum
Australian Energy Infrastructure Commissioner Tony Maher will deliver a keynote address in Melbourne at the Clean Energy Council’s onshore wind industry event.
May 8
Melbourne Energy Institute public lecture: Contracts for gas prioritisation to power plants and grid reliability during winter emergencies
Pennsylvania State University Associate Professor of Energy Economics Chiara Lo Prete will speak at this hybrid event.
May 15
How Traditional Owners are powering the clean energy transition
Melbourne Climate Futures Senior Research Fellow Dr Lily O'Neill will speak at this Melbourne event.
May 15
Tariffs, trade and the clean tech domino: Who wins in a fragmented world?
Mac Thompson, co-founder and COO of Fugu Energy, Dani Alexander CEO of UNSW Energy Institute, Professor Liz Thurbon Director of the Green Energy Statecraft Project and David Leitch Principal at ITK and author at Renew Economy will speak at this UNSW Engineering event in Sydney.
May 16
AEMO consultation - cyber security
Submissions on the draft report on whether AEMO’s cyber security roles and responsibilities should be a declared NEM project are due.
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