All eyes on Iran


Hey Reader, there's still time to have your say in our annual reader survey. Take two minutes to provide your feedback here.

In today's edition:

  • Trump's war and energy
  • Grid resilience needs national approach
  • Decommissioning dodge

Iran energy fallout

Global sharemarkets, petroleum and futures exchanges are bracing for the resumption of regular trading on Monday morning, with consumers warned of energy price rises following Saturday’s joint US-Israeli strikes on nine Iran cities. Analysts said the move, which they described as “reckless” and "illegal", would “pose serious risks to oil markets” and was likely to upend global energy supplies – with some concerned the disruption could trigger a global economic recession.

Attacks on Iran are likely to have a much more severe impact on the world economy than the recent strikes on oil-producing Venezuela, they warned, with Iran producing around 3% of the world’s oil and its strategic position in the world’s major oil producing region exacerbating the risk of a full-blown oil shock.

The strikes – which killed hundreds of Iranians and created a power vacuum with the death of Iran supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – provoked Iran to attack several oil-producing neighbours and close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of global seaborne oil and 20% of global LNG passes. Three American soldiers and nine Israelis have died as a result of the retaliatory action.

Australian markets expect the price of oil to surge substantially as a result, with Rystad Energy predicting a $US20 per barrel increase – to around $US93 per barrel, nearly twice the $US58 average previously predicted for this year. Meanwhile OPEC has promised to increase production by 206,000 barrels a day.

The length of the war, and the duration of the Hormuz closure, will test investors’ resolve – but sustained increases in the price of oil could create opportunities for other oil producers to increase production in response to the changes, while inflicting pain at Australian petrol pumps that could potentially provide further validation for renewable energy operators and EV sales.

Anticipating strikes on Iran, a recent Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) analysis mapped four possible scenarios for oil disruption – with economic analysts bracing for the consequences as strikes continue, and potential escalation risks tipping the Middle East into an all-out regional war.

Prevention better than cure for grid resilience

As another summer of bushfires draws to a close, Australia’s grid continues to operate in conditions it was never designed for: higher average temperatures, more extreme heat, stronger wind and longer periods without rain.

But, writes IND Technology founder and RMIT high-voltage research expert Alan Wong, we’re not necessarily getting better at preventing fires caused by faults on ageing powerlines.

“Eight separate trials of early fault detection technologies have been conducted across Australia in the past nine years. All demonstrated benefits, yet no coordinated national approach has followed.
The barriers to its implementation are structural: our regulatory framework divides responsibility in ways that make proactive investment difficult.”

Catch Up

Capital

Oil and gas producers in Australia lag world's best practice by offering investors little to no insight about the massive financial liabilities they carry for decommissioning their fossil fuel infrastructure, a new analysis of 38 companies’ information disclosure has found. Carbon Tracker assessed companies in the UK, Canada and Australia against 15 disclosure metrics and found that Australian firms disclose just 19% of the required metrics – well behind Canada (41%) and the UK (45%) – and warned that “gaps in reporting expose investors to financial and regulatory risks.”

Australia’s renewable energy market is “resilient”, but with domestic capital being limited, the industry will require extensive foreign investment to meet 2030 and 2050 emissions reductions targets, according to a new analysis of macroeconomic trends in Australia’s renewable energy transition from law firm Hamilton Locke. Key priorities to maintain momentum include strengthening domestic manufacturing and supply chains, deepening partnerships with allied countries to accelerate technology sharing and investment, and expanding access to competitive financing using green bonds, concessional funding, and government co-investment.

Four Western Australian TAFE projects will share $1.4 million in Applied Research Grants designed to support innovative clean energy training across the state. The grants, which are funded through the $70.5 million Clean Energy Skills National Centre of Excellence (CESNCE), will support projects such as training electricians on wind turbine installations; streamlining the assessment of tradespeople moving into clean energy jobs; creating culturally appropriate training for Aboriginal people; and virtual reality training for apprentices in remote areas


Projects

The Victorian Government is 30 days away from invoking emergency powers to access the land of 27 north central Victorian landholders, who have repeatedly blocked attempts to access their properties to conduct environmental surveys related to the 500km, $7.6 billion VNI West transmission project, which was approved last August. VicGrid has been trying to access some of the properties for years, and wrote the farmers in late February to advise that authorised agents would access the properties by force within weeks if they were not admitted. (ABC)

The Twin Hills Wind Farm is open for public comment until March 12, with the 11,166.41ha project – located 260km north of Perth near Three Springs – currently awaiting federal approval. The project, which will include up to 110 wind turbines up to 300m high and related battery and infrastructure, is expected to take up to three years and involve 300 staff during construction.

Queensland energy company Arrow Energy, a joint venture between Shell and PetroChina, has applied to the Land Court of Queensland for a judicial order for access to Sunpork’s Tong Park piggery at Kogan, in Queensland’s Western Downs. Arrow Energy has state and federal approval to build three gas pipelines under the property – including two 17km pipelines for coal seam gas and ‘produced water’ from gas extraction, and a 59km pipeline to transport treated water to Arrow’s operations – but has been unable to negotiate access with Sunpork. (ABC)

WA’s Future Energy Exports Cooperative Research Centre (FEnEx CRC) has leased 0.5ha from DevelopmentWA that will enable the construction of Stage 1 of the Kwinana Energy Transformation Hub – a multi-user, open access testbed designed to support training and skills development in new energy solutions, decarbonisation and related technologies. The Stage 1 R&D building is expected to be complete by October. (FEnEx)


Policy

Solar panel subsidies are no longer needed because homeowners benefit from using the electricity they produce, Germany’s economy ministry has said in pushing for the end of subsidies for systems with an installed capacity of less than 25kW. The opposition Green party and solar industry warned the proposal could threaten climate targets and tens of thousands of jobs. (Reuters)

Ongoing high costs mean the government should gradually phase out the Electric Car Discount, the Grattan Institute has argued in a submission to DCCEEW and the Australian Centre for Evaluation. With owning an electric car already set to “become the norm” at some point, the thinktank argues, subsidies to encourage their adoption are becoming moot – and the policy discussion should change in response, focusing on alternative issues such as the fact that electric cars are cheaper to own than petrol cars.


Regulation

The Australian Energy Regulator has published its final decision on Basslink owner APA Group’s transmission revenue proposal for the interconnector for the period from 2026 to 2030, with the operator allowed to recover $459.5 million in revenues from customers during the period – 0.4% less than Basslink’s proposed $461.2 million – and total opex forecasts of $124.1 million, including debt raising costs, over the period. The decision gives Basslink a regulatory asset base of $744.6 million as at July 1 this year, at which APA may or may not decide to convert its market network service to a prescribed transmission service.

The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) is intensifying the audit program for the Cheaper Home Batteries Program, with 1,000 inspections completed to date and new photo requirements introduced for solar battery installations as of March 1. Those requirements will require installers to take “clear, geotagged and time stamped photos of critical labelling” in addition to existing installer onsite verification photos, with CER executive general manager Carl Binning warning that the agency will use “sophisticated AI as part of our assessment process to ensure all claims are meeting the new requirements.”

The NEM’s market price cap and cumulative price threshold will increase to $23,200/MWh and $2,225,900/MWh, respectively, from July 1 after the Australian Energy Commission updated the key reliability settings that govern pricing on the NEM. The new rates represent a 12% increase over the base values for both metrics


Workforce

Acciona Energia has slashed around 30 staff from its key construction division, about 15% of Acciona Energia’s Australian workforce, with sluggish planning approvals thought to be behind the decision. (AFR)


Technology

Australian data centres can’t be expected to build enough of their own renewable capacity to run the facilities 24/7, NextDC (ASX:NXT) CEO Craig Scroggie has said in response to US president Donald Trump’s recent ‘ratepayer protection pledge’ imposing self-generation requirements on US data centre operators. Such a plan is “not practicable” in Australia, said Scroggie, who was recently named to head new industry body Data Centres Australia. (AFR)


Climate

Environmental activist group Greenpeace has vowed to seek a retrial and appeal a North Dakota Supreme Court decision that awarded $484 million ($345 million) to energy firm Energy Transfer – a legal action that Greenpeace has labelled a strategic lawsuit against public participation (SLAPP) that it said awarded damages “without a sound basis in law”. The verdict comes as activist group Rainforest Reserves Australia rebranded after spending $600,000 fighting a Queensland wind project, with resources minister Madeleine King raising concerns – in the wake of the recent ACCR v Santos Ltd judgement – that activist groups are abusing community legal centres to launch what Australian Energy Producers called “ideological-driven attempts to disrupt and delay critical energy products.”


People

Global solar firm FRV has appointed Michael Steiner as the new Australia-New Zealand regional CEO. Steiner, who succeeds Carlo Frigerio, was previously the company’s chief business development officer and previously held roles at ENGIE, Intra Corporation, and Advanced Power.

Sustainability advisory Foresight Consulting Group has appointed two new executives to its Melbourne operations, welcoming former Ernst & Young partner Terence Jeyaretnam as its new executive director and former KPMG director Cameron Reid as director. Jeyaretnam spent over a decade at Ernst & Young and led its climate and sustainability practice, while Reid left KPMG in late 2023 for leadership roles at Mars and Commonwealth Bank.

Newly formed data centre industry peak body Data Centres Australia (DCA) has welcomed Craig Scroggie as its inaugural chair. Scroggie, CEO and managing director of data centre giant NextDC, will lead a newly appointed board that includes AirTrunk’s Paul Slaven, Amazon Web Services’ Cameron Evans, Jack Dan of CDC Data Centres, and Karie Bradfield of Microsoft.

What's On

March 3
Clean Energy Investor Group Conference

Victorian Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio will headline this Melbourne event also featuring ENGIE Australia Managing Director of Renewables and Batteries Laura Caspari, SEC Vic CEO Chris Miller, Queensland Renewable Energy Council CEO Katie-Anne Mulder, VicGrid CEO Alistair Parker, and Squadron Energy CEO Rob Wheals.


March 4-5
Energy Consumers Australia Foresighting Forum

Luis Gonzalez, Chief Data and AI Officer at Aboitz Power, Robert Gross, Director of the UK Energy Research Centre, and Harriet Thomson, Associate Director at the Glasgow Centre for Sustainable Energy will keynote this Sydney event. Industry speakers include EnergyAustralia CEO Mark Collette, Essential Energy CEO John Cleland, and Tim Jarratt, Group Executive, Market Development & Strategy, Ausgrid.


March 9
Understanding the draft reliability arrangements in the ECGS

The Australian Energy Market Commission will hold a public forum to discuss draft determinations on the implementation of a reliability standard and related reliability tools for the East Coast Gas System.


March 10
Orchestrating Consumer Energy Resources to Benefit Customers and Strengthen the Grid

AGL CEO Damien Nicks will keynote this Australian Energy Council event in Melbourne. Other speakers include AEMC Chair Anna Collyer and AEMO Executive General Manager, Policy & Corporate Affairs Violette Mouchaileh.


March 18-19
Energy Storage Australia

NEM Review’s panel chair Tim Nelson; Hydro Tasmania’s Erin van Maanen, Energy Security Corporation CEO Paul Peters, and Indigenous Energy Australia’s Michael Frangos will join a host of other industry and technology specialists at this Sydney event.


March 19
Powering the future: Sustainability of mining energy transition materials

The Melbourne Energy Institute will welcome Monash University’s Dr Nikolas Kuschnig for a session exploring the sustainability of mining energy transition minerals. The one-hour session, starting at 2pm online and in person at the Melbourne Connect building in Carlton, will explore the lack of information about artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) and the impact of uncertainty on the supply of metals critical for the energy transition.


March 24
Powering WA's Regions: Remote and Offshore Renewables

The Clean Energy Council will hold a panel session at Perth’s Golden Ballroom Centre, with speakers including Sabine Powell of DNV Australia, Vi Garrood of Horizon Power, Thomas Friberg of Zenith Energy, Emma van der Velde of GHD, and Nicole Blackburn of Schneider Electric (Australia).

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

Read more from The Energy

Hey Reader, welcome to The Energy Week, your chance to catch up on this week's most important energy news. Prefer to listen? Get The Energy Week on your favourite podcast platform. THE ENERGY WEEK • EPISODE 20 R&D alarm bells 05:56 MORE INFO This week's top energy news Results season continued this week and the research sector sounded the alarm on declining investment in R&D. Capital EnergyAustralia, the country’s third-largest electricity and gas supplier, has embarked on a major initiative...

Hey Reader, in today's edition: AEMO board transitions Tasmania weighs new Marinus costs Getting orchestration to sing AEMO names two new board members The Australian Energy Market Operator has appointed two industry veterans to its board which is composed of both government and industry representatives. Energy Efficiency Council CEO Luke Menzel leads the peak energy efficiency body’s efforts at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and is also Vice President of the...

Hey Reader, we're currently running our annual reader survey — your chance to provide important feedback on how we can help you in your role. Have your say here. in today's edition: Rethinking the grid with new demand More to come on higher fixed charges Waratah super battery update Why data centres are not like smelters Even as a coalition of 11 Australian industry, union, and community and environmental groups called for data centres to supply their own electricity, Energy Minister Chris...