A resilient summer


Hey Reader, in today's edition we sum up the most important news of the holiday period:

  • Records speak of resilience
  • Implications of Trump’s Venezuela oil grab
  • Akaysha up for sale?

Another record-breaking summer

Record heatwaves and catastrophic fires have not (so far) been matched by energy security challenges this summer. Instead, renewable energy records were broken.

Christmas day saw a new record in South Australia for minimum operational demand from sources other than rooftop solar, the market operator announced, beating the previous record from October 2024 and seeing rooftop solar providing 91% of the state’s total generation.

Prior to the heatwave, milder temperatures also saw a new minimum operational demand record in Victoria on December 27, with both days leading to extreme negative prices.

On the other side, when the heatwaves began on January 7 they drove underlying demand to what the experts at WattClarity posited could be the highest ever, at 40,000MW. And with the heat came a big spot price spike in NSW.

Historically, summer has been the uneasiest period for system operators, but this is now shifting to winter, experts said, and a late summer heatwave when everyone is back at work could yet stress the system.

Still, Climate Energy Finance director Tim Buckley highlighted the role of booming solar and batteries to system resilience:

“Risks and vulnerability have never been higher, but we also have a lot more fast-to-deploy solutions — when the sun is baking, solar power generation is (almost) highest. And batteries — both utility scale + behind the meter (BTM) home batteries — are a new solution that dramatically build system resilience.”

Putting this into numbers, wind engineer David Osmond crunched the data to show what wind and solar generation are doing to reduce peak demand during extremes, some of which have happened in winter.

Meanwhile 15,000 homes and businesses were without power due to the storms in Queensland on Sunday night, reminding us all of the ultimate power of extreme weather.

What Trump’s Venezuela oil grab means for Australian energy

US President Trump reportedly faced a cool reception in his meeting with oil and gas executives on Friday, with Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods telling the president Venezuela was “uninvestable” under current conditions. (New York Times) (Politico)

Venezuela may have the largest crude oil reserves in the world, but there are plenty of challenges standing in the way of exploiting it, aside from the unwillingness of US big oil to invest money there. These include sub-par infrastructure, a lack of skilled workers and a global supply glut. (Foreign Policy)

Looking at the entirety of the Trump administration’s actions in Venezuela, experts said they appear to be part of a much broader geopolitical strategy, one that goes beyond harming China’s interests. (Reuters)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had a far greater impact on oil prices than Trump’s Venezuela action, highlighting the importance of supply lines.

Energy markets expert Matt Rennie said with gas prices continuing to set peak power prices in the NEM, the broader geopolitics would be more critical this year.

Expert view

“War (via supply line interruption) pushes global gas prices higher by tightening LNG markets and embedding risk premiums (eg the Ukraine experience). In that world, gas remains expensive, coal power shadows it, and power prices stay high. If things kick off, prices will rise. But the new US administration has shown a tendency to get what it wants without direct conflict (if tariff outcomes are a guide), making a no war scenario at lower oil prices plausible.

In a no-war outlook, lower oil prices towards Trump’s $50 target (and calmer LNG markets) pull global gas prices down over time. Because Australian gas is priced off Asian LNG netbacks, domestic gas prices follow with a lag.

In both cases, gas still sets the 4pm–7pm price but at very different levels. Cheaper gas pulls evening peaks and average power prices down; war keeps them elevated. The mechanism is well understood. The hard part is not the theory, it’s picking which world we end up in.

For coal, the lower oil prices / no war scenario compresses margins, lessening the high price late in the day market. Average prices drop, forcing coal deeper into overnight markets. A war scenario does the opposite, seeing oil and gas prices to Ukraine levels and taking late day pricing to the Value of Lost Load.

For gas, the logic follows except a low oil / no war scenario dampens volatility and compresses the margins that would have been present from coal being less reliable.

For those setting strategy this year, understanding most likely scenarios and least regret outcomes has never been more critical.”

Matt Rennie
Chief Markets and Growth Officer, Rennie

Meanwhile, climate and political economy analysts Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay point out why Trump’s unprecedented move on Venezuela has been dominated by an oil-driven narrative, despite the flaws of pinning it to oil:

  • "It projects the idea of US dominance over a big swathe of the world’s fossil fuel resources
  • It projects the idea that fossil fuels are dominant in geopolitics (maintaining a sense that fossil fuel demand is growing amid decline)
  • It satisfies Trump’s penchant for acquiring control of other countries’ extractive resources
  • It sends specifically threatening signals to some countries. For example: China, the main buyer of Venezuelan crude (although this seems unlikely to bother China)
  • It probably helps a bunch of US oil companies; not the industry majors, who have high thresholds for risk, but the smaller and often privately-held services companies."

Catch Up

Capital

BlackRock-backed Akaysha Energy is considering selling a stake in the company in order to raise more capital, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources. The Australian energy storage developer secured $460 million in finance for its Elaine BESS in Victoria in November, and in September closed a $300 million corporate debt facility.

Mining major Glencore (LON: GLEN) confirmed speculation it was once again in talks with Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) about a possible merger. If the deal eventuates, it could create the world’s largest resources company, valued at more than $200 billion. The talks come in the wake of Glencore finalising a $600 million taxpayer-funded bailout package for its Mount Isa copper smelter. Rio Tinto shares closed more than 6% lower on the news. Rio Tinto has until February 5 to make a formal offer to Glencore shareholders. (ABC) (The Australian)

The West Australian government opened round 4 of its Clean Energy Future Fund with applications open until Monday 20 April. A total of $9 million is available and grants can cover up to 25% of eligible project costs ranging from $100,000 to $4 million.

ASX junior NuEnergy Gas (ASX: NGY) said it had secured a deal with China’s PT Beijing Energy Linking to fully fund and construct Indonesia’s first approved coal bed methane gas project. It said all early production was contracted under a 13-year binding gas sales agreement with state-backed distributor PGN.


Projects

Origin Energy said the first phase of its Eraring BESS was operational, boasting 460MW/1770MWh of storage. Origin executive GM of energy supply and operations Greg Jarvis thanked contractor partners Wärtsilä, Enerven, Jacobs, Lumea and Transgrid for building the asset “on time and under budget”. The fourth phase of the battery is expected to be operational by the first quarter of 2027. (Energy Magazine)

Energy Minister Chris Bowen said a “record number” of renewable energy projects were given the green light in 2025. “In the year to 30 November, the Albanese Government approved 54 renewable energy projects taking the total to 123 since 2022 across all states and territories,” Bowen said.

Meanwhile, Rystad Energy’s David Dixon said December 2025 was the highest month of renewable generation in the NEM at 9.5TWh (50.4% of total generation) and the WEM at 1.07TWh (53.9% of total generation).

Japan powered up its first floating offshore wind farm. (Recharge News)


Policy

Data centre energy use could force big industrial users to scale back their operations with Australia’s energy system not ready to deal with the forecast spike, according to a letter sent to energy ministers prior to their December meeting. The Australian Industry Group, which sits on the customer councils of electricity transmission and distribution networks in NSW and Victoria, said unusual and urgent measures would be required to protect existing energy users, “particularly since the rapid pace of change greatly exceeds the speed of traditional policy processes”. (AFR)

California introduced a new bill to make it easier for consumers to use balcony solar systems. The “Plug Into the Sun Act” would prohibit utilities from triggering formal interconnection agreements for these devices. (PV Magazine)


Regulation

The Australian Energy Regulator issued a please explain on the forecasts for residential and commercial battery capacity in the market operator’s draft 2026 Integrated System Plan. The AER’s transparency review of the ISP points out a reduction under the Step Change scenario between the 2024 ISP (7GW in 2029–30 and 34GW in 2049–50) and the draft 2026 ISP (5GW in 2029–30, then 27GW in 2049–50), without an explanation as to why. The regulator is also seeking more information on the most significant drivers and differences of each of the types of generation and storage presented in the ISP.


Technology

Uncertain data centre load forecasts have hit US capacity market PJM to the tune of US$6.5 billion according to a report from the grid operator’s independent market monitor. It found about $6.2 billion of those costs is related to data centers that haven’t been built but could come online by PJM’s 2027/28 delivery year. (Utility Dive)

Facebook parent company Meta said it would help generate and maintain 6.6 gigawatts of nuclear energy on the US grid by 2035. It said supporting nuclear energy development “helps create a more reliable electric grid” and was “key to securing America’s energy independence and global leadership in AI”. (Politico)


Climate

Law experts said it was unclear whether US President Trump could legally pull the US out of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change without the consent of the Senate. Trump last week announced the US would exit the UN treaty, making it the only country in the world to ever do so. They also said given the administration has already effectively withdrawn from most international climate activities, this latest move will make little difference. (Carbon Brief) (Heatmap) (Politico) (Bloomberg)

The US also said it would immediately withdraw from the Green Climate Fund and give up its board seat. The fund, which has approved more than US$19 billion for over 300 projects since 2015, said the decision would not disrupt its operations. (E&E News)


Research

The cells of sodium-ion batteries (SIB) are approaching cost parity with lithium-ion batteries (LIB), with the potential to outperform lithium-ion, according to new research published in the Journal of Energy Storage. Researchers from Finland’s LUT University, in cooperation with Germany’s Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and Spain’s University of Alcalá, said concerns over supply shortages or price spikes with lithium ion could be largely alleviated, since any disruption in LIB supply could simply trigger a shift to SIB. (PV Magazine)

Policy sticks are still needed to supplement carrots designed to encourage decarbonisation, according to research published in Nature Climate Change. Using a US model, the researchers found industrial policy involving subsidies to deploy green technologies were not enough on their own to dramatically reduce future emissions. “Only with policy sticks are there unambiguous signals to substantially shrink the size of incumbent fossil fuel industries,” they said.

Firm power can be found beyond mechanical generators, according to a three-year project involving grid-forming inverters on the remote Hawaiian island of Kauai. A team led by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), previously known as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), demonstrated that power electronics can be equally capable of offering essential grid stability services, and can offer an even greater range and responsiveness of services than machines.


People

Emily Gadaleta, senior energy policy adviser with Tesla, was appointed Chair of the Clean Energy Council Distributed Energy Directorate.

Endeavour Energy appointed former BGC Group CEO Danny Cooper as Chief Executive Officer, effective 2 March 2026.

What's On

February 11
Delivering on the Queensland Energy Roadmap

CS Energy CEO Brian Gillespie will deliver the keynote at this Queensland Energy Club event in Brisbane.

The Energy

The Energy is dedicated to covering the business of energy and in particular the people, capital, projects and emerging technology behind the energy transition.

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